GFX Morning Commentary December 19th, 2012

Good Morning,

Today’s expected range for the Canadian Dollar against the US Dollar is .9825-.9900

Today’s expected range for the Canadian Dollar against the Euro is 1.3075-1.3150

Today’s expected range for the Canadian Dollar against Sterling is 1.6040-1.6120

The US Dollar is weaker again this morning as the Euro is on a roll at the moment, EURO.USD reached a new 7 month high this morning of 1.3290. The Euro is being pushed higher by a number of factors, the Fiscal Cliff negotiations seem to be gaining momentum, S&P upgraded the Greek debt rating so hopefully that issue is being pushed to the back ground for now, the Euro keeps gaining against the Yen as that country will rapidly seek to devalue their currency through new stimulus measures and this morning the German business confidence report came in better than expected, all positive factors for the Euro. I am still not convinced that this can be maintained in the long run especially as a strong Euro will hurt their export market but for the short-term the Euro should remain strong.

The Canadian Dollar continues to remain stable against the US Dollar, with the Euro on the rise against the Canadian Dollar as well as the US Dollar, the Lonnie has not been able to make any gains against the Greenback so USD.CAD just sits at current levels waiting for its next move. We do get some secondary economic data out of the US today but I don’t expect it to have much of an impact on the currency, tomorrow we do get the release of the US GDP report  as well as Canadian Retail Sales and that may get the market moving ahead of the holiday break.

This will be the last commentary before Christmas, I am taking a couple of days off to get Mrs. Smith her Christmas present, I was thinking a vacuum cleaner that really sucks would be a nice gift but my inner man tells me that I might end up with the hose wrapped around my neck Christmas morning, I think I better pay a visit to the local jewelry store. I will be in the office on Christmas Eve and the rest of the working days next week, I won’t do a daily commentary but will send out some thoughts on the year that was and hopefully some insight for next year to help with your budgeting process.

Have a great holiday
Mike

 

GFX Morning Currency Rates
Currencies	7:00am Today's Opening				Yesterday's Opening
USD/CAD		0.985			0.9846
CAD/USD		1.015			1.0154
EUR/USD		1.3278			1.3178
EUR/CAD		1.308			1.2977
STG/CAD		1.6055			1.5455
AUD/CAD		1.0346			1.0368
CAD/JPY		85.77			85.13
CAD/CHF		0.9242			0.9303
CAD/HKD		7.8623			7.8659
CAD/CNY		6.3225			6.3261
CAD/MXN		12.9023			12.9255
Commodities
Gold		$1,670			$1,699
OIL		$88.40			$87.71
Option Volatility
Canada
O/N		6.40%			6.50%
1 Week		5.10%			5.12%
1 Month		5.02%			5.05%

 

GFX Morning FX Commentary December 18th, 2012

Good Morning,

Today’s expected range for the Canadian Dollar against the US Dollar is .9800-.9870

Today’s expected range for the Canadian Dollar against the Euro is 1.2960-1.3030

Today’s expected range for the Canadian Dollar against Sterling is 1.5940-1.6010

The US Dollar is marginally weaker this morning in very quiet FX markets, the market continue to monitor the US fiscal cliff talks where the Republicans have agreed a trillion dollars’ worth of tax increases if the President agrees a similar amount of spending cuts. In China the government is talking about a target growth rate of 7.5% for their economy next year (would that not be nice here in Canada) and in Japan the new government is pressuring the Bank of Japan to announce a new round of stimulus measures and to raise the inflation target to 3.5%. The Euro only had a 30 point range last night which has been the smallest trading range in weeks.

The Canadian Dollar is very quiet with a 15 point overnight trading range and with no major economic releases until Thursday we may see more of the same from the North American market, I would not expect USD.CAD to move much today. Equity markets are pointing higher to start the day so we may see USD.CAD move back towards the .9825 level but I would not expect much more strength than that. Given how quickly USD.CAD can move back higher on any negative news I would still look for US Dollar buyers to take on some forward contracts at current levels and US Dollar sellers need to be ready if we see any quick  pullbacks above .9875.

Have a great day

Mike

GFX Morning Currency Rates
Currencies	7:00am Today's Opening				Yesterday's Opening
USD/CAD		0.9846			0.9871
CAD/USD		1.0154			1.0131
EUR/USD		1.3178			1.3151
EUR/CAD		1.2977			1.2983
STG/CAD		1.5455			1.5992
AUD/CAD		1.0368			1.0378
CAD/JPY		85.13			84.82
CAD/CHF		0.9303			0.9304
CAD/HKD		7.8659			7.8493
CAD/CNY		6.3261			6.3147
CAD/MXN		12.9255			12.9523
Commodities
Gold		$1,699			$1,693
OIL		$87.71			$86.65
Option Volatility
Canada
O/N		6.50%			6.90%
1 Week		5.12%			5.15%
1 Month		5.05%			5.10%

 

GFX Morning FX Commentary

Good Morning,

Today’s expected range for the Canadian Dollar against the US Dollar is .9850-.9920

Today’s expected range for the Canadian Dollar against the Euro is 1.2970-1.3050

Today’s expected range for the Canadian Dollar against Sterling is 1.5980-1.6050

The US Dollar is marginally stronger this morning as the results of the Japanese election have moved the currency markets around a bit, both Euro and Sterling have hit new highs with EURO.USD topping out so far at 1.3150 and GBP.USD hitting a new high of 1.6205. In Japan the Liberal Democratic Party returned to power after a three year absence after the pledged to achieve economic growth of 3% and an inflation rate of 2%. To achieve this they will have to introduce massive stimulus into the economy so it will be very interesting to watch how they go about this and the effect it has on the global economy. One course of action for them will be to have policies to weaken the Yen so they can increase their export market. Look for USD.JPY and CAD.JPY to increase in value over the coming months.

The Canadian Dollar is a little weaker this morning as the Loonie has given up some gains on the back of the stronger US Dollar. GBP.CAD was the big mover overnight as it jumped to trade up at 1.6000 after we closed it at 1.5930 on Friday , that is the biggest range we have had for that currency pair in weeks. USD.CAD is still on the back burner at the moment but if Euro and Sterling both continue to trade stronger this week the USD.CAD should fall back towards the .9850 level , once again we are not expecting a big range for USD.CAD, I still favour US Dollar buyers putting on some forward contracts at current levels and US Dollar buyers need to  be ready if we see a pullback above .9900 today.

Have a great week

Mike

GFX Morning Currency Rates
Currencies	7:00am Today's Opening				Yesterday's Opening
USD/CAD		0.9871			0.9845
CAD/USD		1.0131			1.0155
EUR/USD		1.3151			1.3086
EUR/CAD		1.2983			1.2886
STG/CAD		1.5992			1.5877
AUD/CAD		1.0378			1.0363
CAD/JPY		84.82			85.05
CAD/CHF		0.9304			0.9377
CAD/HKD		7.8493			7.8659
CAD/CNY		6.3147			6.3424
CAD/MXN		12.9523			13.0206
Commodities
Gold		$1,693			$1,698
OIL		$86.65			$86.72
Option Volatility
Canada
O/N		6.90%			5.80%
1 Week		5.15%			5.10%
1 Month		5.10%			5.05%

 

 

 

 

GFX Morning FX Commentary December 14th, 2012

Good Morning,

 

Today's expected range for the Canadian Dollar against the US Dollar is .9800-.9875

 

Today's expected range for the Canadian Dollar against the Euro is 1.2850-1.2975

 

Today's expected range for the Canadian Dollar agaisnt Sterling is 1.5840-1.5920

 

The US Dollar is marginally weaker this morning in very quiet FX markets. Overnight EURO.USD reached over the 1.3100 level as the EU Finance Ministers announced that they would be releasing more funds to Greece and also that they would be working on a single resolutiuon mechanism to help banks if the need arose in the future, this is to tie in with the new central regualtor for all EU banks. The strenght was quickly abated as the the PMI Servies report did not come in as expected. Generraly the latest Euro data has been more positive and with a weaker US Dollar trend emerging we may see the Euro gain some short term strength but with the problems that still exist I doubt that it can still be maintained over the long-term.

 

The Canadian Dollar traded in a very narrow range over night and is basically exactly where we left it yesterday, it contiues to look like the Loonie wants to get stronger but as I mentioned it will be a slow process. US Dollar sellers need to be ready to act on any short-term pullback when it happens.

Up today we get a slew of US data including the CPI report for November, as I mentioned yesterday with the Federal Reserve tying the interest rate to the Unemployment rate and the Inflation rate any inflation data will take on added significance, if we see any signs that inflation is starting to rise then we will get some enhanced volatility.

 

 

Have a great day
Mike

GFX Morning Currency Rates
Friday December 14, 2012
Currencies	7:00am Today's Opening				Yesterday's Opening
USD/CAD		0.9845			0.9836
CAD/USD		1.0155			1.0164
EUR/USD		1.3086			1.3054
EUR/CAD		1.2886			1.2841
STG/CAD		1.5877			1.5858
AUD/CAD		1.0363			1.037
CAD/JPY		85.05			84.81
CAD/CHF		0.9377			94.5
CAD/HKD		7.8659			7.8747
CAD/CNY		6.3424			6.3352
CAD/MXN		13.0206			12.9679
Commodities
Gold		$1,698			$1,683
OIL		$86.72			$86.20
Option Volatility
Canada
O/N		5.80%			7.00%
1 Week		5.10%			5.15%
1 Month		5.05%			5.08%

GFX Morning FX Commentary December 14th, 2012

Good Morning,

Today’s expected range for the Canadian Dollar against the US Dollar is .9800-.9870

Today’s expected range for the Canadian Dollar against the Euro is 1.2820-1.2900   

Today’s expected range for the Canadian Dollar against Sterling is 1.5850-1.5930

The US Dollar is marginally stronger this morning as equity markets around the world turned negative on the US Federal Reserve announcement tying the interest rate to the unemployment rate and the rate of inflation. EURO.USD flirted with the 1.3100 level for a while and then backed off to trade at 1.3050, Sterling is also weaker this morning as a poor manufacturing report weighed on the Pound.

The Canadian Dollar is unchanged against the US Dollar as the Loonie was once again ignored by currency traders, the sentiment still seems to be forming for a weaker US Dollar with a gradual strengthening for the Canadian Dollar, US Dollar sellers need to stand ready to sell some forwards on any pullbacks towards .9900 in the coming days, this rate may not seem attractive at the moment but if I am right and we start to see USD.CAD moving back towards .9700 and .9600 in the coming weeks then having some forwards on at the .9850 to .9900 levels will look very good.

Up today we get the release of the US Retail Sales report for November and the Producer Price Index for November, given that the Federal Reserve has tied the interest rate to the inflation rate any inflation data will be watched all the more closely by currency traders, any sign that inflation is starting to rise will get currency traders excited and they will start to buy up the Greenback. We also get some secondary Canadian economic data today so I am hopeful that we get some enhanced volatility.

 

Have a great day

Mike

GFX Morning Currency Rates
Currencies	7:00am Today's Opening				Yesterday's Opening
USD/CAD		0.9836			0.9853
CAD/USD		1.0164			1.0147
EUR/USD		1.3054			1.0327
EUR/CAD		1.2841			1.2837
STG/CAD		1.5858			1.5908
AUD/CAD		1.037			1.0392
CAD/JPY		84.81			84.05
CAD/CHF		94.5			0.9437
CAD/HKD		7.8747			7.844
CAD/CNY		6.3352			6.3415
CAD/MXN		12.9679			12.9321
Commodities
Gold		$1,683			$1,715
OIL		$86.20			$86.28
Option Volatility
Canada
O/N		7.00%			7.48%
1 Week		5.15%			5.16%
1 Month		5.08%			5.08%