GFX Morning FX Commentary

Good Morning,

Today’s expected range for the Canadian Dollar against the US Dollar is 1.1585-1.1625

Today’s expected range for the Canadian Dollar against the Euro is 1.4150-1.4200

Today’s expected range for the Canadian Dollar against Sterling is 1.8030-1.8080

The US Dollar is marginally weaker this morning in very light holiday trading, both Euro and Sterling are a bit higher as the markets square up ahead of the holiday break.

The price of oil continues to trade  within the $55 to $59 trading range as it starts to settle into its new trading range, It will take a fairly large economic event to get it to break to either side of this range.

The Canadian Dollar had a quiet night but is a little bit stronger this morning, just like oil it will take something big to push it through its recent range, the Loonie should remain relatively quiet through the holiday season. Just a reminder that the Loonie will be trading on Boxing day so make sure you get your orders in today just in case there is some volatility.

We will be closing the office today around noon so if you need something today please let us know early on. On behalf of everyone here at GFX we want to pass along our wishes for a safe and happy Christmas and if you don’t happen to celebrate the holiday enjoy the quiet time with your families.

Have a great holiday.

Mike

GFX Morning Currency Rates
Currencies	7:00am Today's Opening				Yesterday's Opening			4:30pm December 23rd Closing Rates
USD/CAD		1.1603			1.1622				1.1625
CAD/USD		0.8618			0.8604				0.8602
EUR/USD		1.2197			1.2224				1.2167
EUR/CAD		1.4155			1.421				1.4146
STG/CAD		1.8036			1.8081				1.8027
AUD/CAD		0.9408			0.9457				0.9413
CAD/JPY		103.75			103.31				103.82
CAD/CHF		0.849			0.8461				0.8499
CAD/HKD		7.7418			6.6538				7.7365
CAD/CNY		5.355			5.3561				5.3551
CAD/MXN		12.697			12.5929				12.699
Commodities
Gold		$1,176.80			$1,179				$1,174.20
OIL		$56.22			$56.09				$57.02
US DOLLAR INDEX
OPEN		90.18			89.96				90.36
US 10YR YIELD		2.25%			2.16%				2.25%

 

 

 

GFX Morning Commentary

Good Morning,

Today’s expected range for the Canadian Dollar against the US Dollar is 1.1580-1.1660

Today’s expected range for the Canadian Dollar against the Euro is 1.4200-1.4280

Today’s expected range for the Canadian Dollar against Sterling is 1.8050-1.8130

The US Dollar is marginally stronger this morning. The Dollar remains on a strong trajectory as today it is expected that the US economy will report a strong GDP number alongside increasing Durable Goods orders, the upside to cheaper oil is that consumers and business will have more free capital to continue to push the economy forward. The British Pound took a bit of a hit overnight against the Greenback as the UK GDP report came in weaker than expected, every time it looks like the UK economy will gain some momentum it takes a step back.

Nothing to report for the Loonie in overnight trading, it had a very tight range and is now setting up for the US GDP report this morning, it did trade a little weaker as oil dropped overnight but nothing of consequence, it appears that oil is stabilizing in the $56 to $59 trading range for the moment.

As mentioned, today we get the US GDP report for the 3^rd quarter, we are expecting an annualized growth rate of 4.3% that is up from the previous report of 3.9%, anything above the 4.3 number could push USD.CAD back towards the 1.1650 level very quickly. We also get the US Durable Goods report, another strong number here will indicate that the US economy is full-steam ahead and the US Dollar will remain strong.

A quick reminder to everyone that even though we will be closed on Friday for Boxing Day the Canadian Dollar will still be trading on international markets (the US is open) so make sure you get your orders in early so you can take advantage of any  volatility.

Have a great day.

Mike

GFX Morning Currency Rates
Currencies	7:00am Today's Opening				Yesterday's Opening			4:30pm December 22nd Closing Rates
USD/CAD	1.1622				1.1608				1.1636
CAD/USD	0.8604				0.8615
EUR/USD	1.2224				1.2257				1.224
EUR/CAD	1.421				1.4231				1.4225
STG/CAD	1.8081				1.8129				1.8131
AUD/CAD	0.9457				0.9464				0.9455
CAD/JPY	103.31				103.11				103.17
CAD/CHF	0.8461				0.8453				0.8457
CAD/HKD	6.6538				6.6613				6.6445
CAD/CNY	5.3561				5.3603				5.3469
CAD/MXN	12.5929				12.5591				12.5905
Commodities
Gold	$1,179				$1,196.30				$1,173.10
OIL	$56.09				$57.13				$55.29
US DOLLAR INDEX
OPEN	89.96				89.71				89.93
US 10YR YIELD	2.16%				2.17%				2.16%

 

 

 

 

GFX Morning FX Commentary

Good Morning,

Today’s expected range for the Canadian Dollar against the US Dollar is 1.1580-1.1640

Today’s expected range for the Canadian Dollar against the Euro is 1.4240-1.4280

Today’s expected range for the Canadian Dollar against Sterling is 1.8140-1.8200

The US Dollar is slightly weaker this morning as comments by the Saudi Oil Minister have helped push the Euro a little higher. In his comments Saudi Oil Minister Ali Al-Naimi stated that the move in oil prices was overdone and the oil market will recover. The comments have not had that much of an effect on the price of oil as we are only slightly higher than where we closed on Friday.

In other overnight news the Russian Ruble continued to make some gains on the back of 17% interest rates but also on the back of the Chinese Government offering more support for Russia.

The Canadian Dollar is weaker this morning against the US Dollar as the Loonie was not able to take advantage of the stronger price of oil overnight. Once again nothing that I see just yet indicates a short-term reversal of fortune for the Loonie, it should remain weak going into the New Year. I did read with interest that hedge funds that speculate in the currency markets on average have reduced their bets that that US Dollar will appreciate in the coming weeks, I will watch this to see if it becomes a trend.

With the Christmas holidays upon us the only economic release of significance is tomorrow’s release of the US GDP report for the third quarter, given that trading conditions will be thin due to banks having reduced staff this week we could see some enhanced volatility. A quick reminder that we will be closing our office at noon on the 24^th and that we will be closed for the 25^th and 26th, if you need any wires or cheques please get your orders in early and we will get them out.

Have a great week

Mike

GFX Morning Currency Rates
Currencies	7:00am Today's Opening				Yesterday's Opening			4:30pm December 17th Closing Rates
USD/CAD	1.1608				1.1594				1.1609
CAD/USD	0.8615				0.8625
EUR/USD	1.2257				1.2271				1.2231
EUR/CAD	1.4231				1.4279				1.4203
STG/CAD	1.8129				1.8125				1.8146
AUD/CAD	0.9464				0.9472				0.9447
CAD/JPY	103.11				102.94				102.84
CAD/CHF	0.8453				0.8457				0.847
CAD/HKD	6.6613				6.6678				6.6572
CAD/CNY	5.3603				5.3662				5.3549
CAD/MXN	12.5591				12.587				12.5617
Commodities
Gold	$1,196.30				$1,197				$1,195.00
OIL	$57.13				$54.95				$56.52
US DOLLAR INDEX
OPEN	89.71				$89.39				89.8
US 10YR YIELD	2.17%				2.20%				2.16%

 

 

 

 

GFX Morning Commentary

Good Morning,

Today’s expected range for the Canadian Dollar against the US Dollar is 1.1560-1.1640

Today’s expected range for the Canadian Dollar against the Euro is 1.4230-1.4290

Today’s expected range for the Canadian Dollar against Sterling is 1.8120-1.8180

The US Dollar is marginally stronger as once again the Japanese Yen dominated the FX markets. The Bank of Japan announced that they will increase their stimulus program to further flood the market (by buying government bonds) with cheap money in the hope that the economy will improve. In the UK, Sterling was a bit weaker as UK Government borrowing reported to increase last month and the Euro (which has taken a backseat these past weeks to other world events) remained  weak as the expectation is that the ECB will announce a massive stimulus program next month. You can see the divergence between Europe and the US really starting to emerge, Europe is just looking to start a stimulus program while the US has ended theirs and is looking to increase interest rates next year.

The Russian Ruble has rallied a little as 17% interest rates start to have a positive effect on the Ruble, investors who borrowed money to short the Ruble are forced to buy back those positions as they cannot afford to pay the interest rates to hold the positions. Of course the rest of the economy will be destroyed by the high interest rates but at least the Ruble will get a bit stronger.

The Canadian Dollar has a quiet night and the inter-bank rate continues to trade in a narrow range. With the price of oil stabilizing for the moment between $55 and $59 the Loonie should settle down as well. We still favour a test higher for USD.CAD but positive economic data should start to help the Loonie a little.

Up today we have both the Canadian Retail Sales report for October and the CPI report for November, Canada could use some very positive numbers after the beating the Loonie has taken the last few weeks, the Loonie has stemmed the losses against the US Dollar for the moment and it would be nice to see a bit of a pullback.

 

Have a great weekend

Mike

GFX Morning Currency Rates
Currencies	7:00am Today's Opening				Yesterday's Opening			4:30pm December 18th Closing Rates
USD/CAD		1.1594			1.158				1.1593
CAD/USD		0.8625			0.8636				0.8625
EUR/USD		1.2271			1.231				1.2285
EUR/CAD		1.4279			1.4259				1.4242
STG/CAD		1.8125			1.8131				1.8167
AUD/CAD		0.9472			0.9479				0.947
CAD/JPY		102.94			102.39				102.38
CAD/CHF		0.8457			0.8441				0.845
CAD/HKD		6.6678			6.675
CAD/CNY		5.3662			5.3163
CAD/MXN		12.587			12.5343
Commodities
Gold		1197			1205
OIL		54.95			57.75
US DOLLAR INDEX
OPEN		89.39			89
US 10YR YIELD		2.2			2.18