Monday, 5 March 2012

GFX Morning FX Commentary March 5th, 2012

Good Morning,

Todays suggested range for the Canadian dollar against the US Dollar is .9900 – 1.0000

Todays suggested range for the Canadian dollar against the Euro  is 1.3100-1.3200

Todays suggested range for the Canadian dollar against Sterling is 1.5710-1.5825

The US Dollar is virtually unchanged when compared to our close Friday against the world's major currencies the Greenback is considerably stronger against the world's commodity currencies this morning. Overnight the Chinese Finance Ministry announced that they are revising their growth target down to 7.5% for 2012 from 8.0% which had been their target level for many years, 7.5% will be the  lowest growth rate in China since 2004. As China is the world's largest importer of raw materials it is not surprising that a slowdown in their economy will have a negative effect on the Canadian and Australian Dollars and other commodity currencies.

The Euro was very stable against the US Dollar overnight as a surprisingly better than expected Euro-Zone retail sales report offset the poor Chinese data and supported the Euro against the Greenback.

It did not take long for the Canadian Dollar to give back a lot of its recent strength, with the announcement of slower growth in China USD.CAD moved back above the .9900 level very quickly overnight as the prospect of the Canadian raw material sector selling less to China this year as left global investors worried about the overall Canadian economy. I would think that the Loonie won't give up that much more today as we will see the currency oscillate around the .9900 level as I mention on Friday,

The Currency markets will be setting up for a very busy week as we have no less than 5 Central Banks reporting on interest rates this week, including the Bank of Canada, the European Central Bank and the Bank of England on Thursday, the week is capped off by the US and Canadian Employment reports on Friday, in between we have a number of secondary economic data being released that should continue to point to a slow US recovery.  Ahead of all this activity look for USD.CAD to continue to move around the .9900 level, I would think a wise strategy for early this week would have US dollar buyers picking up some US Dollars up on any moves towards the .9900 and if you need to sell some US this week look to .9950 as a realistic level. If any of these reports this week disrupt expectation the currency markets could get quite volatile and who knows where they will end up.

Have a great week
Mike


GFX FOREIGN EXCHANGE MORNING UPDATE
Monday, March-05-12
Market Indicators                   * For current market prices please contact our currency advisors or visit our
                                                  on line site at www.gfxpartners.ca *

Currencies 7:00am Today's Opening  Yesterday's Opening
USD/CAD 0.9955 0.9864
CAD/USD 1.0045 1.0138
EUR/USD 1.3186 1.325
EUR/CAD 1.3128 1.3071
STG/CAD 1.575 1.5709
AUD/CAD 1.0627 1.0637
CAD/JPY 81.6 82.57
CAD/CHF 0.9189 0.922
CAD/HKD 7.7969 7.8642
CAD/CNY 6.3315 3.3818
Commodities
Gold $1,698 $1,717
OIL $106.15 $108.29
Option Volatility
Canada
O/N 11.72% 7.00%
1 Week 8.98% 9.00%
1 Month 8.57% 8.50%

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