GFX Morning FX Commentary, April 2nd, 2012

Good Morning,

Today's expected range for the Canadian Dollar against the US Dollar is .9950 to 1.0050

Today's expected range for the Canadian Dollar against the Euro is 1.3300-1.3400

Today's expected range for the Canadian Dollar against Sterling is 1.5980-1.6100

The US Dollar starts the new month and 2nd quarter relatively flat, initially the Greenback was weaker to start the overnight session as China reported better than expected Manufacturing data, I guess the reported demise of the Chinese economy has been greatly overstated, EURO.USD traded to a high of 1.3380 on this news. Markets should be quiet in Asia this week as Chinese markets will be closed until April 4^th to celebrate the Qing Ming festival, I looked it up and it is a festival to celebrate Spring and to visit the graves of departed ones.

In Europe the dollar rallied  as the Euro ISM (manufacturing) reports were not as robust as expected and equity markets retreated into the red, EURO.USD fell to trade at 1.3300 on these reports but overall the trading ranges were subdued.

The Loonie had a quiet night and continues to trade in and around parity, the Loonie continues to trade with a weak bias against the Euro and Sterling as recent strength in those currency pair have pushed the Loonie lower. EURO.CAD is now above 1.3300 and GBP.CAD is at 1.6000

For today with equity markets looking to start the day on a weak footing, USD.CAD should break above the par level at some point but I do not expect a  big range, we do get some manufacturing data out of the US today which we are expecting to further confirm that a modest US recovery is underway so if the number is better than expected equity markets may jump and the Loonie may rally a bit with USD.CAD moving lower.

I will send out a reminder later in the week but just a quick note that our office will be closed Friday for the Good Friday celebration, note that this is holiday not celebrated in the US and it will be a full trading day  South of the border, make sure you get your orders in early as the US payrolls will be released Friday morning and we could get some enhanced volatility. Because of the holiday the Canadian employment report will be released on Thursday.

Have a great Week

Mike

GFX Morning Currency Rates

Monday, April 02 2012

Currencies	7:00am Today's Opening				Yesterday's Opening
USD/CAD		0.9983			0.9964
CAD/USD		1.0017			1.0036
EUR/USD		1.3339			1.334
EUR/CAD		1.3319			1.3294
STG/CAD		1.6012			1.5953
AUD/CAD		1.037			1.0363
CAD/JPY		82.79			82.34
CAD/CHF		0.9036			0.9057
CAD/HKD		7.776			7.7906
CAD/CNY		6.3054			6.317
CAD/MXN		12.798			12.8179
Commodities
Gold		$1,663			$1,665
OIL		$102.44			$103.30
Option Volatility
Canada
O/N		10.90%			7.00%
1 Week		8.45%			8.80%
1 Month		8.41%			8.50%