GFX Morning FX Commentary, July 17th, 2012

Good Morning,

Today's expected range for the Canadian Dollar against the US Dollar is 1.0100-1.0200

Today's expected range for the Canadian Dollar against the Euro is 1.2440-1.2575

Today's expected range for the Canadian Dollar against Sterling is 1.5850-1.5975

The US Dollar is marginally weaker this morning as equity investors have pushed overnight equity markets higher on the expectation that US Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke will discuss further stimulus measures today and tomorrow in his semi-annual address to the House and Senate(10:00 am). If Bernanke states that the economy is slowing and the likelihood that further stimulus programs will be necessary then you should see equities soar and the US Dollar weaken off. He certainly has some recent ammunition to announce the need for more stimulus as yesterday's US Retail Sales report was very poor.

Not much really to say about the Loonie overnight, it held onto its recent strength against the US Dollar but is losing a bit of ground to the Euro and Sterling as those currencies get stronger against the US Dollar. Today of course is Bank of Canada day (I am sure all readers had the date circled on their calendars!), with little or no chance of a rate change today markets will look at the statement to see what the Bank has to say about the Canadian economy in the coming months, I will as always send out a currency alert shortly after the 9:00 am announcement, make sure you have your orders in ahead of the announcement in case we get enhanced volatility.

Up today we also have the release of US Industrial Production, Capacity Utilization and the US CPI report for June, if all these numbers drift to the downside then Bernanke may have some more wiggle room on stimulus, all in all it could be a very busy day.

Have a great day
Mike

GFX Morning Currency Rates
Tuesday July 17th, 2012
Currencies	7:00am Today's Opening				Yesterday's Opening
USD/CAD		1.0148			1.0150
CAD/USD					0.9852
EUR/USD		1.2289			1.2184
EUR/CAD		1.2470			1.2368
STG/CAD		1.5867			1.5766
AUD/CAD		1.0441			1.0367
CAD/JPY		77.8400			77.8000
CAD/CHF		0.9628			0.9704
CAD/HKD		7.6496			7.6371
CAD/CNY		6.2866			6.2837
CAD/MXN		12.9866			13.1012
Commodities
Gold		$1,595.50			$1,349.50
OIL		$88.65			$86.72
Option Volatility
Canada
O/N		11.42%			10.75%
1 Week		7.96%			7.65%
1 Month		8.00%			7.50%

Today's Economic Calendar

USA
CPI for June (08:30)
Capacity Utilization for June(9:15)
Industrial Production for June (9:15)
Bernanke statement to the House (10:00)

CANADA
Manufacturing Shipments for May (08:30)
Bank of Canada Policy Announcement (9:00)