GFX Morning Commentary January 30th, 2013

Good Morning,

Today’s expected range for the Canadian Dollar against the US Dollar is .9980-1.0080

Today’s expected range for the Canadian Dollar against the Euro is 1.3560-1.3680

Today’s expected range for the Canadian Dollar against Sterling is 1.5800-1.5900   

The US Dollar is weaker to start the day as the EURO.USD has jumped to the 1.3560 level and EURO.CAD has risen to trade at 1.3600 during the night. In Europe this morning a Business Confidence survey reported much higher than expected as business in the region seems to be on a positive footing with the financial crisis calming down for the time being, this is the strongest the Euro has been since May 2012.

The Canadian Dollar spent the afternoon yesterday slowly getting stronger and at one point overnight it though about breaking through parity but it has bounced of that level and USD.CAD is again pushing higher this morning.

Today’s currency trading will be dominated first by the US GDP report for the 4^th quarter of last year and then by the US Federal Reserve announcement on interest rates this afternoon. For the US GDP we are expecting a growth rate of 1.2% for the quarter, if this number is lower than expected it will signal a slowdown in the economy, stocks will give up some strength and the US Dollar should jump higher, if it is a strong report then just the opposite should happen.

This afternoon the Fed will almost certainly keep interest rates at current levels but markets will be watching to see if they announce an end to their stimulus program, if they do look for equity markets to get hit and the US Dollar to jump higher, if they continue with the stimulus then we should see the US Dollar fall back and equities jump.

Today could be a very volatile day so make sure you get your orders in  early. If anything happens around the Fed announcement I will send out a currency alert.

Have a great day.

Mike

GFX Morning Currency Rates
Currencies	7:00am Today's Opening				Yesterday's Opening
USD/CAD		1.002			1.0061
CAD/USD		0.998			0.9939
EUR/USD		1.3543			1.3428
EUR/CAD		1.3574			1.3512
STG/CAD		1.5806			1.5838
AUD/CAD		1.0451			1.0509
CAD/JPY		91.06			89.86
CAD/CHF		0.9147			0.9183
CAD/HKD		7.7373			7.7059
CAD/CNY		6.2058			6.1874
CAD/MXN		12.6836			12.6958
Commodities
Gold		$1,664			$1,661
OIL		$97.88			$96.41
Option Volatility
Canada
O/N		10.79%			10.24%
1 Week		7.13%			7.23%
1 Month		6.51%			6.66%