GFX Morning FX Commentary Nov 5th, 2013

Good Morning,

Today’s expected range for the Canadian Dollar against the US Dollar is 1.0390-1.0450

Today’s expected range for the Canadian Dollar against the Euro is  1.4050-1.4120

Today’s expected range for the Canadian Dollar against Sterling is 1.6710-1.6780

The US Dollar is mixed this morning as it is marginally stronger against the Euro but weaker against the Yen and the Pound. Sterling was once again the big mover overnight as the UK again reported better than expected economic data as UK Services output accelerated to its fastest level in 16 years.  The Euro continues to trade under pressure as the expectation grows that the ECB will cut interest rates on Thursday to stimulate a slowing economy, we are seeing a real divergence in Europe with positive data coming out of London and talk of interest rate hikes and then poor data coming out of Europe and talk of interest rate cuts, no wonder the EUR.GBP currency pair is dropping quickly.

The Canadian Dollar slowly continues to give back some of it gains from last week, as the USD.CAD rate continues to move back towards 1.0450, it still appears that the Loonie is more active against the Euro and Sterling as they consistently have bigger overnight trading ranges. Given that the EURO.CAD has dropped so much over the past few sessions it might not be  bad idea for Euro buyers to look at some forward contracts to protect themselves against further weakness in the Canadian Dollar.

Up today we get some secondary data out of the US and Canada but I do not expect it to have much material impact, I once again look for USD.CAD to have a narrow trading range and to try and break the 1.0450 level at some point.

Have a great day

Mike

GFX Morning Currency Rates
Currencies	7:00am Today's Opening				Yesterday's Opening
USD/CAD		1.0427			1.04
CAD/USD		0.9587			0.9615
EUR/USD		1.3493			1.3505
EUR/CAD		1.4073			1.4046
STG/CAD		1.6733			1.6605
AUD/CAD		0.9926			0.9887
CAD/JPY		94.22			94.84
CAD/CHF		0.8734			0.8767
CAD/HKD		7.4269			7.4502
CAD/CNY		5.8479			5.8606
CAD/MXN		12.5327			12.5341
Commodities
Gold		$1,312.00			$1,317.00
OIL		$84.27			$94.52
US DOLLAR INDEX
P.CLOSE		80.66			80.8
OPEN		80.64			80.68
US 10YR YIELD		2.62%			2.61%