GFX Morning FX Commentary

Good Morning,

Today’s expected range for the Canadian Dollar against the US Dollar is 1.0600-1.0700

Today’s expected range for the Canadian Dollar against the Euro is 1.4600-1.4700

Today’s expected range for the Canadian Dollar against Sterling is 1.7370-1.7470

The US Dollar is marginally stronger this morning as the financial markets anxiously await the word from the US Federal Reserve at 2:00 pm today. USD.JPY was the big mover overnight as Japan reported a record trade deficit in November, a clear sign that the weaker yen is boosting the export market for Japanese goods, the opposite side to that coin of course is higher import costs which will drive inflation higher.

The Canadian Dollar is weaker this morning as it has rejected the 1.0600 level for the time being and it looks like USD.CAD wants to move back higher towards 1.0700 at the moment. All of this will of course be moot as any direction today and over the next few sessions will depend on what the Fed does with their stimulus program.

My own feeling (and it is not based on any insight to what the Fed will do) is that they will announce a gradual tapering of stimulus which should initially drive USD.CAD above 1.0700 and then it will settle down, I believe that the positive signs from the US economy will allow them to start the reduction program. I will send out an updated commentary shortly after the Fed announcement this afternoon and update everyone on what happened.

Have a great day

Mike

GFX Morning Currency Rates
Currencies	7:00am Today's Opening				Yesterday's Opening
USD/CAD		1.0637			1.0579
CAD/USD		0.9401			0.9452
EUR/USD		1.3748			1.3746
EUR/CAD		1.4626			1.4545
STG/CAD		1.7395			1.7207
AUD/CAD		0.947			0.9437
CAD/JPY		96.76			97.31
CAD/CHF		0.8353			0.8389
CAD/HKD		7.2824			7.323
CAD/CNY		5.7047			5.7361
CAD/MXN		12.1903			12.2425
Commodities
Gold		$1,232.00			$1,238.00
OIL		$97.23			$97.27
US DOLLAR INDEX
P.CLOSE		80.21			80.24
OPEN		80.27			80.29
US 10YR YIELD		2.85%			2.86%