GFX Morning Commentary

Good Morning,

Today's expected range for the Canadian Dollar against the US Dollar is 1.0660-1.0700

Today's expected range for the Canadian Dollar against the Euro is 1.4570-14610

Today's expected range for the Canadian Dollar against Sterling is 1.8190-1.8230

From the lack of traffic on the roads and the number of people on the train‎ there will not be a lot of people reading the commentary this morning, I think lot of companies are closed to get a jump on the Canada Day holiday.

The US dollar is mixed  this morning in quiet overnight trading markets. It is weaker against the Euro and Sterling but stronger against the Yen and the Canadian Dollar in very limited trading ranges.

Given the lack of people around we could have a very volatile morning as we get the release of the Canadian GDP report for April, the expectation is for an increase of 0.2% and a year-over-year growth rate of 2.3%, these numbers will be a slight increase over the previous month’s number. When you factor in an inflation rate of 2.0% there is very little real growth in the economy so a poor number should push USD.CAD higher.

We also get the Pending Home Sales Index out of the US and the number is expected to be down close to 10% year-over-year which is an incredible drop. Just over the last few weeks we have seen a major turnaround in the US economic reports and with the very poor US GDP report from last week the US recover is starting to look very bleak. This week we get the US Employment report on Thursday and if the US economy does not create at last 200k new jobs then we could see the US Dollar really get hit hard, either way we should be in for an active week after the holiday.

Have a great day and a great Canada Day.

Mike

GFX Morning Currency Rates
Currencies	7:00am Today's Opening				Yesterday's Opening
USD/CAD		1.0525			1.0709
CAD/USD					0.9338
EUR/USD		1.3649			1.3612
EUR/CAD		1.4581			1.4581
STG/CAD		1.8199			1.8234
AUD/CAD		100.35			1.0082
CAD/JPY		94.86			94.94
CAD/CHF		0.8332			0.834
CAD/HKD		7.2344			7.216
CAD/CNY		5.8079			5.8111
CAD/MXN		12.1516			12.174
Commodities
Gold		$1,314.10			$1,311.00
OIL		$105.25			$106.32
US DOLLAR INDEX
P.CLOSE		80.02			80.26
OPEN		80.06			80.22
US 10YR YIELD		2.53%			5.56%