GFX Morning FX Commentary

Good Morning,

Today’s expected range for the Canadian Dollar against the US Dollar is 1.1140-1.1200

Today’s expected range for the Canadian Dollar against the Euro is 1.4070-1.4130

Today’s expected range for the Canadian Dollar against Sterling is 1.8090-1.8150

The US Dollar is much stronger this morning as slowing inflation in the Euro-Zone gave the Greenback a big boost, EURO.USD went from a high of 1.2690 just before the number and is now trading at 1.2570, a drop of almost 1%. Despite revised strong growth data out of the UK, Sterling is also lower against the Dollar but it did make some gains against the Euro highlighting the different directions the two economies are taking. Look for more stimulus measures from the ECB this week to fight off the fear of deflation when they make their interest rate announcement on Wednesday.

USD.CAD continues to be dragged higher as a result of the very strong US Dollar, right now it does not look like there is any signs of it stopping or pulling back,  US Dollar buyers need to be cognizant of this and look for any opportunity to buy some forward contracts whenever we get a dip in the rate.

Up today we get the release of the Canadian GDP report for July, we are expecting a growth rate of 0.3% (year over year 2.8%, last 3.1%), not very spectacular numbers that are going to inspire confidence in the Canadian economy. A weaker number may give us the push to get near the 1.1200 level this morning.

Have a great day.

Mike

GFX Morning Currency Rates
Currencies	7:00am Today's Opening				Yesterday's Opening
USD/CAD		1.117			1.1147
CAD/USD		0.8951			0.8971
EUR/USD		1.2594			1.2683
EUR/CAD		1.4071			1.4139
STG/CAD		1.8087			1.8091
AUD/CAD		0.9751			0.9736
CAD/JPY		98.11			98.75
CAD/CHF		0.8571			0.8533
CAD/HKD		6.9311			6.9448
CAD/CNY		6.4924			5.5176
CAD/MXN		12.1003			12.1287
Commodities
Gold		$1,209.00			$1,227.00
OIL		$94.66			$93.04
US DOLLAR INDEX
P.CLOSE		85.6			85.76
OPEN		86.02			85.68
US 10YR YIELD		2.51%			2.52%

 

 

 

 

GFX Morning Commentary

Good Morning,

Today's expected range for Canadian Dollar against the US Dollar is 1.1125-1.1180

Today's expected range for the Canadian Dollar against the Euro is 1.4160-1.4230

Today's expected range for the Canadian Dollar against Sterling is 1.8110-1.8170

The US Dollar is marginally stronger to start the new North American trading week. The big mover overnight was the New Zealand Dollar as the Reserve Bank of New Zealand announced that it's sale of NZ Dollars in August was the most in the last 7 years, this direct intervention in the market by the Central Bank has pushed the Kiwi Dollar down some 1.5% in overnight trading and it is dragging the Aussie Dollar along with it. Currently the NZD.USD currency pair is trading at .7770, I think the Reserve Bank would like to see it trade at .6500 so the currency pair has lots of room to drop.

Overall the US Dollar continues to get stronger as it is set for its biggest monthly gain since 2012, both the Euro and Sterling are slightly weaker against the dollar this morning with the trend for a weaker Euro still in place going forward.

The Canadian Dollar is unchanged this morning from our Friday close against the Greenback but it does continue to dramatically weaken off as it is being pushed lower by a stronger US economy and the prospect of higher interest rates in the US. I would not be surprised if USD.CAD tried a test of 1.1200 this week.

Up this week we get lots of US data to end the month including Personal Income and Expenditure today, Consumer Confidence tomorrow and then as we move into October we reset the cycle and get the important Jobs report out of the US on Friday.  In addition on Thursday we get the European Central Bank and we get Canadian GDP for the month of August tomorrow. On the Geo-political front we had some Ukrainian soldiers killed last night, the coalition bombing campaign continues in Syria and Iraq and in Hong Kong pro-democracy protests have grown in size and stature, overall it will be a busy and volatile week.

Have a great week

Mike

GFX Morning Currency Rates
Currencies	7:00am Today's Opening				Yesterday's Opening
USD/CAD		1.1147			1.1094
CAD/USD		0.8971			0.9014
EUR/USD		1.2683			1.2743
EUR/CAD		1.4139			1.414
STG/CAD		1.8091			1.8109
AUD/CAD		0.9736			0.9759
CAD/JPY		98.75			98.22
CAD/CHF		0.8533			0.8543
CAD/HKD		6.9448			6.9705
CAD/CNY		5.5176			5.5227
CAD/MXN		12.1287			12.0677
Commodities
Gold		$1,227.00			$1,224.00
OIL		$93.04			$92.97
US DOLLAR INDEX
P.CLOSE		85.76			85.21
OPEN		85.68			85.23
US 10YR YIELD		2.52%			2.50%

 

 

 

 

 

 

GFX Morning FX Commentary

Good Morning,

Today's expected range for the Canadian Dollar against the US Dollar is 1.1075-1.1150

Today's expected range for the Canadian Dollar against the Euro is 1.4140-1.4220

Today's expected range for the Canadian Dollar against Sterling is  1.8100-1.8180

The US Dollar is for the most part unchanged this morning as the currency markets get set for this morning's US report on the economy, the US Dollar will close out the week making its 11^th straight week of gains against the broader market, there is no denying the strength of the US Dollar at the moment. The Greenback did hit a 6-year high against the Japanese Yen as expectations of more economic stimulus in Japan keep pushing the Yen lower.

USD.CAD did push higher throughout the night but the Loonie recovered back to where we closed last night, the currency pair should remain quiet ahead of this morning’s GDP report but after that it could get quite volatile again.

Up today as mentioned we have the release of the 2nd Quarter US GDP report alongside some secondary data including US Consumer Sentiment. For the GDP report we are expecting a growth rate of 4.6% on an annualized basis (last was 4.2%) which is in line with other strong reports coming out of the US. A very strong report should give USD.CAD the impetus to get a decisive break above the 1.1100 level, a poor report will push USD.CAD back lower and continue recent range trading. Given the strong data out of the US lately we favour the report being a strong one.

Have a great weekend

Mike

GFX Morning Currency Rates
Currencies	7:00am Today's Opening				Yesterday's Opening
USD/CAD		1.1094			1.1112
CAD/USD		0.9014			0.8999
EUR/USD		1.2743			1.2722
EUR/CAD		1.414			1.4134
STG/CAD		1.8109			1.8116
AUD/CAD		0.9759			0.9743
CAD/JPY		98.22			98.26
CAD/CHF		0.8543			0.854
CAD/HKD		6.9705			6.9561
CAD/CNY		5.5227			5.5204
CAD/MXN		12.0677			12.006
Commodities
Gold		$1,224.00			$1,210.00
OIL		$92.97			$92.82
US DOLLAR INDEX
P.CLOSE		85.21			85.04
OPEN		85.23			85.4
US 10YR YIELD		2.50%			2.55%

 

 

 

 

 

GFX Morning Commentary

Good Morning,

Today's expected range for the Canadian Dollar against the US Dollar is 1.1080-1.1150

Today's expected range for the Canadian Dollar against the Euro is 1.4130-1.4200

Today's expected range for the Canadian Dollar against Sterling is 1.8110-1.8180

The US Dollar is stronger this morning reaching its highest level against the Euro since November of 2012 as currency traders still are still betting that the US Federal Reserve will increase interest rates next year while the Euro-Zone is still being forced to cut rates and add stimulus. The markets are also reacting to strong US economic data, yesterday we were expecting US New home Sales to have jumped 4.4% in fact they jumped 18% so clearly the US recovery is really picking up steam. The biggest currency mover overnight was the New Zealand Dollar which dropped to a new yearly low as that Central Bank indicated then may intervene in the currency markets, the Kiwi Dollar has fallen over 4% this month alone against the US so it is clearly getting hammered at the moment.

With the stronger US Dollar overnight the Loonie gave back all its gains from yesterday afternoon and USD.CAD is back higher this morning looking to make a clear break of the 1.1100 level, there is nothing that I can see on the horizon that would indicate any prolonged Canadian Dollar strength so US Dollar buyers need to try and protect themselves on any potential pullbacks.

Up today we have the release of the US Durable Goods report and that number can be quite volatile so we are looking for continued movement in USD.CAD.  As the afternoon goes on currency traders will get set up for the release of tomorrow’s US 2^nd Quarter GDP report which is expected to confirm accelerated growth in the US.

Have a great day

Mike

GFX Morning Currency Rates
Currencies	7:00am Today's Opening				Yesterday's Opening
USD/CAD		1.1112			1.107
CAD/USD		0.8999			0.9033
EUR/USD		1.2722			1.2844
EUR/CAD		1.4134			1.4221
STG/CAD		1.8116			1.8166
AUD/CAD		0.9743			0.9831
CAD/JPY		98.26			98.07
CAD/CHF		85.4			0.8488
CAD/HKD		6.9561			6.9807
CAD/CNY		5.5204			5.5398
CAD/MXN		12.006			11.995
Commodities
Gold		$1,210.00			$1,223.00
OIL		$92.82			$91.40
US DOLLAR INDEX
P.CLOSE		85.04			84.65
OPEN		85.4			84.67
US 10YR YIELD		2.55%			2.54%

 

 

GFX Morning Commentary

Good Morning,

Today’s expected range for the Canadian Dollar against the US Dollar is 1.1040-1.1100

Today’s expected range for the Canadian Dollar against the Euro is 1.4200-1.4250

Today’s expected range for the Canadian Dollar against Sterling is 1.8160-1.8210

The US Dollar is mixed this morning in narrow overnight ranges, it is stronger against the Euro and Yen and unchanged against the GBP.  In Germany the IFO reading on the economy showed  a larger than expected decline so we continue to see worrying data coming out of Europe, with the inter-bank EURO.USD rate continuing to drop it may not be long before we see the Goldman Sachs earlier prediction of a 1.2500 rate come to pass.

The rise in USD.CAD has stalled out ahead of the 1.1100 rate for the moment, the rate has been unchanged for the past 24 hours in some very lackluster trading. I still think we are in for a good test of the 1.1100 rate but it may take a day or two to actually break through, US Dollar buyers need to be ready with their orders in case we have a bit of a drop before testing the higher levels.

Not much out today with just US New Homes Sales reporting, look for USD.CAD to stay in a tight range with a possible pullback towards 1.1050 before moving higher.

Have a great day

Mike

GFX Morning Currency Rates
Currencies	7:00am Today's Opening				Yesterday's Opening
USD/CAD		1.107			1.0996
CAD/USD		0.9033			0.9094
EUR/USD		1.2844			1.2882
EUR/CAD		1.4221			1.4167
STG/CAD		1.8166			1.8021
AUD/CAD		0.9831			0.98
CAD/JPY		98.07			98.57
CAD/CHF		0.8488			0.8521
CAD/HKD		6.9807			7.0274
CAD/CNY		5.5398			5.5798
CAD/MXN		11.995			12.0542
Commodities
Gold		$1,223.00			$1,233.00
OIL		$91.40			$91.32
US DOLLAR INDEX
P.CLOSE		84.65			84.7
OPEN		84.67			84.43
US 10YR YIELD		2.54%			2.55%