GFX Currency Alert

Good Morning,

Just a quick update that the US Dollar surge is continuing. EURO.USD has just reached a 6 year low at 1.2500 which was a short-term target for many big banks, the Dow Jones Average and the S&P are both trading at record highs.

The Canadian Dollar is taking it on the chin as it is off almost 75 points this morning against the US Dollar, there is no reason to think that this trend will stop anytime soon. US Dollar buyers need to get their orders in to buy some on any small pullbacks. Very volatile trading at the moment.

Mike

 

 

 

 

 

 

GFX Morning FX Commentary

Good Morning,

Today’s expected range for the Canadian Dollar against the US Dollar is 1.1160-1.1240

Today’s expected range for the Canadian Dollar against the Euro is 1.4080-1.4150

Today’s expected range for the Canadian Dollar against Sterling is 1.7920-1.7990

The US Dollar is marginally weaker against Sterling and the Euro but dramatically stronger against the Japanese Yen this morning. In the Overnight session the Bank of Japan announced a new stimulus package for the country and the countries pension plans stated they would be putting more money into stocks and less into bonds. As you could imagine Equity Markets around the world have jumped higher on this news, in particular the Japanese Nikkei market almost jumped 5%. In Europe recent stimulus measures were somewhat rewarded this morning as the Euro inflation rate jumped 0.4% last month which was slightly better than the market expectation and should give the deflation concerns a bit of a rest. Unemployment is still another problem in Europe as EU unemployment rate remained at 11.5%, imagine what the real number actually is!

The Canadian Dollar traded in a narrow range against the US last night losing a tiny bit of ground but for the most part it is still range bound in light trading, the Loonie did lose the strength that it had picked up when the US GDP report came out yesterday.  As you would expect the Loonie did make great gains against the Yen going from 97.70 before the announcement trading up near 100.00 afterwards. If any clients need to buy Yen you may want to take advantage of this new rate.

Trading today will be dominated by the Canadian GDP report for August, we are expecting a flat growth rate, (0.0% same as last month) and a yearly growth rate of 2.3% (down from last month’s 2.5%). When you factor in an inflation rate at 2.0% there is virtually no real growth in the Canadian economy and if the price of oil keeps dropping it will only push the economy down further, not a pretty picture for sustained growth in the Canadian Dollar.

Have a great weekend and a very scary Halloween.

Mike

 

GFX Morning Currency Rates
Currencies	7:00am Today's Opening				Yesterday's Opening
USD/CAD		1.1195			1.1193
CAD/USD		0.8932			0.8934
EUR/USD		1.2574			1.2591
EUR/CAD		1.4079			1.4098
STG/CAD		1.7914			1.7913
AUD/CAD		0.9879			0.9841
CAD/JPY		99.74			97.31
CAD/CHF		0.8565			0.8598
CAD/HKD		6.9046			6.9092
CAD/CNY		5.458			5.4606
CAD/MXN		11.9999			12.065
Commodities
Gold		$1,173.00			$1,205.00
OIL		$80.39			$81.34
US DOLLAR INDEX
P.CLOSE		86.17			86.01
OPEN		86.6			85.25
US 10YR YIELD		2.32%			2.31%

 

 

 

GFX FX Morning Commentary

Good Morning,

Today’s expected range for the Canadian Dollar against the US Dollar is 1.1160-1.1230

Today’s expected range for the Canadian Dollar against the Euro is 1.4070-1.4230

Today’s expected range for the Canadian Dollar against Sterling is 1.7900-1.7970

The US Dollar is mixed this morning in very quiet overnight trading conditions, It is  a little weaker against Sterling and a bit stronger against the Euro and Yen. After jumping higher yesterday after what is being perceived as an overly cautious statement by the Federal reserve the US Dollar took a bit of a pause last night as the currency markets now await the US GDP report this morning to confirm that maybe investors expecting an increase in interest rates in the first quarter of 2015 were a bit premature in their thinking. The Euro is still under pressure as the inflation rate is expected to come in under the levels that the ECB was expecting, continued deflation seems to be a real problem for the Euro-Zone economy.

The Canadian Dollar is unchanged this morning but that is after it weakened off considerably on the US Federal Reserve announcement. Once again any underlying strength that the Loonie picks up is quickly diminished by one factor or another and the strong US Dollar trend. I still favour a weaker Canadian Dollar and any US Dollar buyers need to have their orders in to pick up some us on any short-term Canadian Dollar strength.

As mentioned today trading will be dominated by the US 3^rd Quarter GDP report, we are expecting a growth rate of 3.1% on an annualized basis, that would be down from the previous reading 4.6% so a significant  drop. If the US gets a strong number above expectation then we should see USD.CAD jump higher and we could retest the 1.1300 levels.

Have a great day

Mike

GFX Morning Currency Rates
Currencies	7:00am Today's Opening				Yesterday's Opening
USD/CAD		1.1193			1.116
CAD/USD		0.8934			0.8961
EUR/USD		1.2591			1.2733
EUR/CAD		1.4098			1.421
STG/CAD		1.7913			1.7987
AUD/CAD		0.9841			0.9906
CAD/JPY		97.31			96.84
CAD/CHF		0.8598			0.8482
CAD/HKD		6.9092			6.9281
CAD/CNY		5.4606			5.4737
CAD/MXN		12.065			12.069
Commodities
Gold		$1,205.00			$1,228.00
OIL		$81.34			$82.21
US DOLLAR INDEX
P.CLOSE		86.01			85.39
OPEN		85.25			85.41
US 10YR YIELD		2.31%			2.29%

 

 

 

 

 

 

GFX Morning FX Commentary

Good Morning,

Today’s expected range for the Canadian Dollar against the US Dollar is 1.1120-1.1200

Today’s expected range for the Canadian Dollar against the Euro is 1.4200-1.4300

Today’s expected range for the Canadian Dollar against Sterling is 1.7970-1.8070

The US Dollar is for the most part unchanged as the financial markets get set for the release of the US Federal Reserve interest rate announcement. Some concern arose yesterday about what the Fed will say as it looks like we are getting an uneven recovery in the US, both Durable goods and Home prices reported disappointing numbers while Consumer Confidence hit a seven-year high in October.

The Canadian Dollar was very quiet last night, it continues to hold onto the strength that it picked up yesterday after the disappointing US Durable Goods report and for the  most part it should remain in a tight range ahead of the Federal Reserve announcement at 2:00 pm this afternoon. There is no chance that the Fed will increase rates today so the market will be watching the accompanying statement, if they take the phrase interest rates will stay low for a “considerable time” then the US Dollar should get hit hard, if they leave the phrase in then I think you will see the US Dollar start to jump again. Either way I think we will see some enhanced volatility so get your orders in early.

Have a great day

Mike

GFX Morning Currency Rates
Currencies	7:00am Today's Opening				Yesterday's Opening
USD/CAD		1.116			1.1217
CAD/USD		0.8961			0.8915
EUR/USD		1.2733			1.2692
EUR/CAD		1.421			1.4238
STG/CAD		1.7987			1.8073
AUD/CAD		0.9906			0.9905
CAD/JPY		96.84			96.29
CAD/CHF		0.8482			0.8464
CAD/HKD		6.9281			6.8939
CAD/CNY		5.4737			5.4494
CAD/MXN		12.069			12.0822
Commodities
Gold		$1,228.00			$1,228.00
OIL		$82.21			$81.05
US DOLLAR INDEX
P.CLOSE		85.39			85.55
OPEN		85.41			85.63
US 10YR YIELD		2.29%			2.26%

 

 

 

 

GFX Morning FX Commentary

Good Morning,

Today’s expected range for the Canadian Dollar against the US Dollar is 1.1180-1.1240

Today’s expected range for the Canadian Dollar against the Euro is 1.4240-1.4300

Today’s expected range for the Canadian Dollar against Sterling is 1.8070-1.8130

The US Dollar is marginally weaker this morning in narrow trading ranges against the major currencies. The Big mover overnight was the Swedish Krona where in a continuing attempt to fight deflation the Swedish Central Bank (the Riksbank) cut their main interest rate to 0% from 0.25%. The currency markets did not anticipate that the Bank would cut as much as they did and as such the SEK had a fairly big drop both against the US and Canadian Dollars. The Russian Ruble was also a big mover overnight as rumours persist that the Russian government will allow the Ruble to free-float on the open market. Since sanctions were introduced the Russian Central Bank has put some $20 Billion US Dollars into the currency market to try and defend the value of the Ruble and so far it  has had no effect, the Ruble continues to decline. I would guess with the sanctions the country is running out of US dollars.

The Canadian Dollar rebounded a little last night in a narrow range as it continues to pullback from its lowest point against the US Dollar while I was away on holidays. I still don’t see a scenario at the moment where the Loonie will start to have a big run so I would still advocate that US Dollar buyers need to be ready with their orders any time we see a dip in USD.CAD.

Up today we have a series of US secondary data including Consumer Confidence and Durable Goods Orders, the market will use these reports to get set up for the Federal Reserve announcement on interest rates tomorrow.

Have a great day

Mike

GFX Morning Currency Rates
Currencies	7:00am Today's Opening				Yesterday's Opening
USD/CAD		1.1217			1.1232
CAD/USD		0.8915			0.8903
EUR/USD		1.2692			1.2674
EUR/CAD		1.4238			1.4237
STG/CAD		1.8073			1.809
AUD/CAD		0.9905			0.9887
CAD/JPY		96.29			95.95
CAD/CHF		0.8464			0.8465
CAD/HKD		6.8939			6.8853
CAD/CNY		5.4494			5.4415
CAD/MXN		12.0822			12.1449
Commodities
Gold		$1,228.00			$1,230.00
OIL		$81.05			$80.46
US DOLLAR INDEX
P.CLOSE		85.55			85.71
OPEN		85.63			85.69
US 10YR YIELD		2.26%			2.27%

 

 

 

 

GFX Morning FX Commentary

Good Morning,

 

Today’s suggested range for the Canadian dollar against the US is 1.1180 – 1.1240

 

Today’s suggested range for the Canadian dollar against the Euro is 1.4140 – 1.4220

 

Today’s suggested range for the Canadian dollar against Sterling is 1.7950 – 1.8030

 

 

The USD index is unchanged with most major currency pairs holding to tight ranges overnight in lacklustre trading. The market going into the weekend seems content on the sidelines with little news on the  economic front today.

 

The British pound was able to stave off a three day decline against the greenback as GDP figures in the U.K. came in line with expectations rising 0.7% in the three months through September. The Euro is basically unchanged from our closing level as investors are still waiting on the EU bank stress tests which should be coming out this Sunday.

 

The Canadian dollar is slightly firmer from our close against its U.S. counterpart and stronger in the crosses. The only economic release today in North America is U.S. new home sales for September. The lack of urgency in the market today could make for uneventful trading. Dow futures are pointing lower by 35 with oil off slightly and some profit taking in gold has bullion edging higher. The focus could already be turning to the Fed’s interest rate announcement next Wednesday and the end of quantitative easing which could make stocks vulnerable again.

 

Have a great weekend!

 

GFX Morning Currency Rates
Friday October 24th 2014
Currencies	7:00am Today's Opening				Yesterday's Opening
USD/CAD		1.1215			1.124
CAD/USD		0.8417			0.8896
EUR/USD		1.2652			1.267
EUR/CAD		1.4191			1.4244
STG/CAD		1.7985			1.8002
AUD/CAD		0.9846			0.9873
CAD/JPY		96.42			95.57
CAD/CHF		0.8496			0.8468
CAD/HKD		7.7377			6.8794
CAD/CNY		5.454			5.4422
CAD/MXN		12.1006			12.0601
Commodities
Gold		$1,232.00			$1,240.00
OIL		$81.38			$80.74
US DOLLAR INDEX
P.CLOSE		85.84			85.75
OPEN		85.83			85.69
US 10YR YIELD		2.25%			2.23%