GFX Morning Commentary

Good Morning,

Today’s expected range for the Canadian Dollar against the US Dollar is 1.1150-1.1230

Today’s expected range for the Canadian Dollar against the Euro is 1.4135-1.4200

Today’s expected range for the Canadian Dollar against Sterling is 1.7950-1.8020

The US Dollar is unchanged this morning as most currency pairs traded in fairly narrow ranges. Yesterday saw the IMF downgrade their prediction for global growth and as a result we are seeing stock markets get hit hard and money move into gold as a safe haven market. We are also seeing the price of oil drop quite a bit (almost a full dollar last night) which is another factor weighing in on the value of the commodity currencies. A prolonged weak price for oil will affect the oil sands and hurt the Canadian economy.

USD.CAD was range trading last night in an narrow band with little direction. It still looks like the US Dollar wants to go higher, if this decline in global stocks turns into a rout then look for safe havens flows to move into gold and US dollar to be pushed even higher.

Up today we get the release of the minutes of the last Federal Reserve meeting in which market observers will be looking to see how many committee members are supporting an increase in interest rates, the markets are still weighing an increase in the first quarter in 2015 so any change in that perception will get the markets thinking. If we do get a global meltdown in stocks from a decline in growth rates I am not too sure how the US can increase interest rates so the next few weeks will be very interesting.

Have a great day

Mike

GFX Morning Currency Rates
Currencies	7:00am Today's Opening				Yesterday's Opening
USD/CAD		1.1168			1.1172
CAD/USD		0.8954			0.8951
EUR/USD		1.2657			1.259
EUR/CAD		1.4139			1.4068
STG/CAD		1.7959			1.7943
AUD/CAD		0.9811			0.8779
CAD/JPY		96.95			97.22
CAD/CHF		0.8577			0.8603
CAD/HKD		6.925			6.9179
CAD/CNY		5.4957			5.4945
CAD/MXN		12.0846			12.0467
Commodities
Gold		$1,217.00			$1,204.00
OIL					$90.18
US DOLLAR INDEX
P.CLOSE		85.58			85.74
OPEN		85.69			86.06
US 10YR YIELD		2.35%			2.42%