GFX Morning FX Commentary

Good Morning,

Welcome to Bank of Canada Day where anything can happen, the excitement is building!!

Today’s expected range for the Canadian Dollar against the US Dollar is 1.2450-1.2550

Today’s expected range for the Canadian Dollar against the Euro is 1.3920-1.4020

Today’s expected range for the Canadian Dollar against Sterling is 1.9190-1.9290

The US Dollar is marginally stronger this morning as the market get setup for the European Central Bank announcements on interest rates due out tomorrow. EURO.USD opens the day down at 1.1120 a six-week low for the common currency, the trend for a lower Euro remains in place for the near-term.

In other Central Bank new last night, the Central Bank of India surprised the markets by cutting their interest rate to 7.5%, Central Bank Governor Raghuram cited weakness in Asia’s third-largest economy as the reason behind the move. As you would expect the Indian Rupee market was quite volatile and CAD.INR reached a high 49.50 in overnight trading. This move may represent a good opportunity to buy some Rupee’s.

The Canadian Dollar is for the most part unchanged against the US Dollar this morning as we continue to range trade ahead of the Bank of Canada this morning. I don’t think I can give any real guidance as to what they will do today, last month the surprise rate cut caught the market off guard and the currency lost 3% as a result of that announcement. Even though Governor Poloz hinted last week that the rate cut buys him time to look at the economy no one can say with any certainty what he will do today. If he surprises or hints of another rate cut then USD.CAD is above 1.2600 in a flash, if he says the economy looks good and no further cuts are needed then we are down at 1.2300 pretty quick. Either way I would think that volatility will be at a premium, make sure you get your orders in before the 10:00 am announcement. As always I will send out a currency alert shortly after the announcement.

Have a great day

Mike

GFX Morning Currency Rates
Currencies	7:00am Today's Opening				Yesterday's Opening			4pm close Tuesday
USD/CAD		1.2507			1.2525			1.2481
CAD/USD		0.7945			0.7985			0.8012
EUR/USD		1.112			1.1164			1.1173
EUR/CAD		1.3917			1.3982			1.3975
STG/CAD		1.9195			1.9248			1.9177
AUD/CAD		0.9797			0.9775			0.9761
CAD/JPY		95.61			95.66			95.85
CAD/CHF		0.7688			0.7669			0.7697
CAD/HKD		6.1772			6.17			6.1892
CAD/CNY		5.0127			5.0085			5.0197
CAD/MXN		12.0383			12.0355			12.0355
Commodities
Gold		$1,205			$1,207			$1,202
OIL		$50.79			$50.29			$50.29
US DOLLAR INDEX
OPEN		96.69			95.53			95.4
US 10YR YIELD		2.13%			2.10%			2.12%