GFX Morning Commentary February 6th, 2012

Good Morning,

Todays suggested range for the Canadian dollar is against the US Dollar is .9925-1.0025

Todays suggested range for the Canadian dollar against the Euro is 1.3000-1.3100

Todays suggested range for the Canadian dollar against Sterling is 1.5700-1.5825

The US Dollar is stronger to start the new trading week as EURO.USD has fallen over 1% this morning on fears that a deal for the 2nd bail-out of Greece will fall apart. The Greek situation seems to be getting worse not better as previously negotiators were only worried about the size of the haircut that private investors were going to take but now it seems that the Greek Government is backtracking on the austerity program they agreed to put in place. Many EU officials were on record this morning as saying a disorderly default by Greece is a real possibility and hit the Euro-Zone hard, until this situation is resolved look for the Euro to trade weaker over the short-term. You can get a real sense know that EU leaders are fed up with this small economy holding the Euro Zone hostage and will tell them to take it or leave it, this week should get some resolution to the situation.

The Loonie is weaker this morning as USD.CAD has moved higher on the back of the drop in EURO.USD, the Loonie has picked up a bit of strength against the Euro and Sterling as the Canadian dollar is not quite as weak against the US Dollar as the Euro and the Pound. The Loonie which had been showing signs of moving towards the .9900 level last night quickly retreated as it keeps getting influenced by events outside of the country.

For today with equity markets pointing lower I would expect that the first move of the day for USD.CAD will be to mover higher and test parity, given recent trading patterns it would not be a bad idea for US Dollar sellers to leave orders at this level, if Greece does back down and they get an agreement it won't be long before USD.CAD is back testing the .9900 level

Have a great week

Mike

GFX FOREIGN EXCHANGE MORNING UPDATE

Monday, February-06-12

                  * For current market prices please contact our currency advisors or visit our

                                                  on line site at www.gfxpartners.ca *

Market Indicators

Currencies	7:00am Today's Opening				Yesterday's Opening
USD/CAD		0.9964			1
CAD/USD		1.0036			1
EUR/USD		1.3056			1.3162
EUR/CAD		1.3014			1.3162
STG/CAD		1.5708			1.583
AUD/CAD		1.0675			1.0692
CAD/JPY		76.86			76.24
CAD/CHF		0.9268			0.915
CAD/HKD		7.7811			7.5555
CAD/CNY		6.3317			6.3027
Commodities
Gold		$1,717			$1,758
OIL		$96.82			$96.70
Option Volatility
O/N		12.29%			8.50%
1 Week		9.52%			10.00%
1 Month		9.43%			10.00%

GFX Morning Commentary Feb 3rd, 2012

Good Morning,

Today's expected range for the Canadian Dollar against the US Dollar is .9960-1.0060

Today's expected range for the Canadian Dollar against the Euro is 1.3170-1.3300

Today's expected range for the Canadian Dollar against Sterling is 1.5850-1.5975

The US Dollar is marginally weaker in very quiet trading markets as the Euro has shrugged off the lack of progress on Greek debt talks and focused on the fact that the US should have created another 150K new jobs last month. It certainly looks to me that the markets as of late are taking a break from volatile trading and trying to get a sense of what is truly going on with the global economy, I look for this back and for trading of the Euro to continue over the short-term.

The Canadian Dollar had a very quiet overnight session trading in a very tight 20 point range which for FX markets is almost unheard of. This morning (7:00 am) saw the Loonie give up some strength as the economy in January only created a crappy 2300 jobs and the unemployment rate increased to 7.6% from 7.5%, with the poor GDP numbers last month and now two crappy months of job growth it is clear that the Canadian economic activity  is grinding to a halt, the Loonie now looks like it wants to trade weaker ahead of the US jobs report at 8;30 but once again I get a sense that currency traders are not paying any attention to the Canadian numbers . In a perfect world I would think these numbers would dramatically weaken off the Loonie but global investors are  just focusing on the European and US developments, if the US employment number today is much better than expected equity markets should jump higher and USD.CAD will be back below par, if the number is poorer than expected stock markets will fall back and USD.CAD will jump higher towards 1.0050

I have been having a few problems formatting the new blog and getting the email service just right, if you have been receiving multiple copies of the email or find it difficult to read we are working to get those issues ironed out.
Have a great weekend

 Mike

GFX FOREIGN EXCHANGE MORNING UPDATE

Friday, February-03-12

                 * For current market prices please contact our currency advisors or visit our

                                                  on line site at www.gfxpartners.ca *

Market Indicators 

Currencies	7:00am Today's Opening				Yesterday's Opening
USD/CAD		1.00			0.9985
CAD/USD		1.00			1.0015
EUR/USD		1.3162			1.3138
EUR/CAD		1.3162			1.3121
STG/CAD		1.583			1.5806
AUD/CAD		1.0692			1.0696
CAD/JPY		76.24			76.18
CAD/CHF		0.915			0.9181
CAD/HKD		7.5555			7.7651
CAD/CNY		6.3027			6.3075
Commodities
Gold		$1,758			$1,749
OIL		$96.70			$97.06
Option Volatility
O/N		8.50%			13.75%
1 Week		10.00%			10.50%
1 Month		10.00%			9.90%

The information, opinions, estimates, projections and other materials contained herein are provided as of the date hereof and are subject to change without notice. Some of the information, opinions, estimates, projections and other materials contained herein have been obtained from numerous sources, and, notwithstanding GFX Partners Inc. (GFX) makes every effort to ensure that the contents thereof have been compiled or derived from sources believed to be reliable and to contain information and opinions which are accurate and complete, GFX has not independently verified and makes no representation or warranty, express or implied, in respect thereof and takes no responsibility for any errors and omissions which may be contained therein.  GFX shall not be liable for any loss arising from any use of or reliance on the information, opinions, estimates, projections and other materials contained herein whether relied upon by the recipient or user or any other third party (including, without limitation, any customer of the recipient or user).  The information, opinions, estimates, projections and other materials contained herein shall not be considered as investment advice or as a recommendation to enter into any transaction. GFX, its affiliates, and/or their respective shareholders, directors, officers and/or employees may from time to time have long or short positions in any such products (including, without limitation, commodities, securities or other financial instruments).

Information may be available to GFX which is not reflected herein and such additional information, if any, is available by contacting GFX directly.

February 2nd, 2011

Good Morning,

Todays suggested range for the Canadian dollar against the US Dollar is .9950 – 1.0050

Todays suggested range for the Canadian dollar against the Euro is 1.3080-1.3200

Todays suggested range for the Canadian dollar against Sterling  is 1.5800-1.5900

The US Dollar is marginally stronger this morning as reports of stalled talks between private Greek bondholders and the  Greek Government have weighed on the common currency, the Euro market had been anticipating a deal by now on the Greek debt situation and if it falls apart look for all markets to get ugly.

China is now getting involved in the Euro crisis, this morning the Chinese premier stated his Government support the actions of the Euro nation in stemming the crisis and are looking for different ways to get involved, the Euro briefly rallied on this report but could not hold its gains and traded weaker throughout the morning.

No big change with the Canadian dollar, USD.CAD continues to oscillate around the parity level as it reacts to developments overseas, last night EURO.USD falls so USD.CAD jumped a bit higher, it is the same trading pattern we have seen over the past few months.

Markets today will get set up for tomorrow's employment report both here in Canada and in the US, in Canada we are expecting to see 24.5K new jobs to be created and an unemployment rate of 7.5% and in the US the good news is expected to continue with 150k  jobs to have been created and an unemployment rate of 8.5%.

For today US dollar sellers may get a chance to sell above parity epically if North American equity markets really drop off on the back of the Greek situation, but given the current trading pattern I would not look for a huge jump in the USD as we should see a stronger Cad at some point In the coming days.

Thanks for all the kind comments on the new blog format and have a great day.

Mike

GFX FOREIGN EXCHANGE MORNING UPDATE

Thursday, February-02-12

                              * For current market prices please contact our currency advisors or visit our

    online site at www.gfxpartners.ca *

Market Indicators

Currencies	7:00am Today's Opening				Yesterday's Opening
USD/CAD		0.9985			0.9995
CAD/USD		1.0015			1.0005
EUR/USD		1.3138			1.3128
EUR/CAD		1.3121			1.3124
STG/CAD		1.5806			1.5776
AUD/CAD		1.0696			1.0665
CAD/JPY		76.18			76.07
CAD/CHF		0.9181			0.9177
CAD/HKD		7.7651			7.7587
CAD/CNY		6.3075			6.3065
Commodities
Gold		$1,749			$1,746
OIL		$97.06			$99.34
Option Volatility
O/N		13.75%			12.00%
1 Week		10.50%			10.15%
1 Month		9.90%			9.90%

The information, opinions, estimates, projections and other materials contained herein are provided as of the date hereof and are subject to change without notice. Some of the information, opinions, estimates, projections and other materials contained herein have been obtained from numerous sources, and, notwithstanding GFX Partners Inc. (GFX) makes every effort to ensure that the contents thereof have been compiled or derived from sources believed to be reliable and to contain information and opinions which are accurate and complete, GFX has not independently verified and makes no representation or warranty, express or implied, in respect thereof and takes no responsibility for any errors and omissions which may be contained therein.  GFX shall not be liable for any loss arising from any use of or reliance on the information, opinions, estimates, projections and other materials contained herein whether relied upon by the recipient or user or any other third party (including, without limitation, any customer of the recipient or user).  The information, opinions, estimates, projections and other materials contained herein shall not be considered as investment advice or as a recommendation to enter into any transaction. GFX, its affiliates, and/or their respective shareholders, directors, officers and/or employees may from time to time have long or short positions in any such products (including, without limitation, commodities, securities or other financial instruments).

Information may be available to GFX which is not reflected herein and such additional information, if any, is available by contacting GFX directly.

FX Morning Commentary Feb 1st, 2012

Good Morning,

Todays suggested range for the Canadian dollar against the US dollar is .9950– 1.0040.

Todays suggested range for the Canadian dollar against the Euro is 1.3130-1.3230

Todays suggested range for the Canadian dollar against Sterling is 1.5800-1.5900

The US Dollar is weaker to start the new month as better than expected manufacturing data in Europe and particularly Germany have helped to push the Euro higher against the Greenback. EURO.USD which yesterday looked like it would break below 1.3000 is back above 1.3100 so a good overnight session for the currency pair. I still think the Euro has further weakness in its future as the crisis is far from over but for now we should see the Euro trade in a back and forth motion.

Of note is the movement of the EUR.CHF currency pair which is approaching the Swiss National Bank's floor at 1.2000, last night it traded down to 1.2030. As previously mentioned a few months back the Swiss Central Bank created the policy that it will intervene in the currency markets to sell massive amounts of Swiss Francs to prevent the Franc from getting stronger and hurting the economy. A novel approach that I am sure will be tested in the coming weeks and the markets will see just what the resolve of the SNB is.

The Canadian Dollar is again stronger against the US Dollar as USD.CAD continues to oscillate around the 1.0000 level, the Loonie continues to react to whatever the Euro or US dollar is doing and is not really being affected by domestic issues. Yesterday the Loonie did give up some strength when the poor Canadian  GDP report for November was released but as we have seen overnight that move was very short lived and the Canadian Dollar is back tracking the equity markets and changes in the US Dollar, hopefully this will change with Friday's Canadian Employment report but I doubt it.

I do not expect much movement today, US dollar buyers should be able to get some USD at the .9975 level and sellers of USD should be able to get 1.0025 today.

Today is the first day of using the Blog let me know what you think, there are some other news resources that you can access if you want more information.

Have a great month

Mike

Currencies	7:00am Today's Opening				Yesterday's Opening
USD/CAD		0.9995			0.997
CAD/USD		1.0005			1.003
EUR/USD		1.3128			1.3197
EUR/CAD		1.3124			1.315
STG/CAD		1.5776			1.5731
AUD/CAD		1.0665			1.0633
CAD/JPY		76.07			76.57
CAD/CHF		0.9177			0.9157
CAD/HKD		7.7587			7.7796
CAD/CNY		6.3065			6.3233
Commodities
Gold		$1,746			$1,741
OIL		$99.34			$100.30
Option Volatility
O/N		12.00%			13.33%
1 Week		10.15%			10.32%
1 Month		9.90%			9.82%

RISK ON WITH IMPROVED MANUFACTURING AND GREEK OPTIMISM

Better than expected manufacturing data in China, Germany and the U.K. helped overseas

stocks make strong gains. In addition to the improved economic data the market is optimistic
that an agreement will be reached with Greece on the debt swap with private creditors.
The USD is lower against the broader market on increased risk appetite with the U.S. ISM manufacturing
data today now in focus. Speculation swirls that the Bank of Japan and the Swiss National Bank are
set to intervene to limit the gains in their respective currencies.
Gold and oil have resumed their rally with Dow futures pointing higher by 90 points in pre-market trading.
The Canadian dollar continues to oscillate around parity with no major economic data until Fridays
employment data.

The information, opinions, estimates, projections and other materials contained herein are provided as of the date hereof and are subject to change without notice. Some of the information, opinions, estimates, projections and other materials contained herein have been obtained from numerous sources, and, notwithstanding GFX Partners Inc. (GFX) makes every effort to ensure that the contents thereof have been compiled or derived from sources believed to be reliable and to contain information and opinions which are accurate and complete, GFX has not independently verified and makes no representation or warranty, express or implied, in respect thereof and takes no responsibility for any errors and omissions which may be contained therein.  GFX shall not be liable for any loss arising from any use of or reliance on the information, opinions, estimates, projections and other materials contained herein whether relied upon by the recipient or user or any other third party (including, without limitation, any customer of the recipient or user).  The information, opinions, estimates, projections and other materials contained herein shall not be considered as investment advice or as a recommendation to enter into any transaction. GFX, its affiliates, and/or their respective shareholders, directors, officers and/or employees may from time to time have long or short positions in any such products (including, without limitation, commodities, securities or other financial instruments).

Information may be available to GFX which is not reflected herein and such additional information, if any, is available by contacting GFX directly.