GFX Mornign Commentary Sept 16th, 2013

Good Morning,

Today's expected range for the Canadian Dollar against the US Dollar is 1.0270-1.0350

Today's expected range for the Canadian Dollar against the Euro is 1.0370-1.3820

Today's expected range for the Canadian Dollar against Sterling is 1.6400-1.6470

The US Dollar is marginally weaker this morning as news that the Obama favored candidate Lawrence Summers has removed his name for consideration as the next US Federal Reserve Chairman when Bernanke retires at the end of the year. Most Democrats seem to favour Janice Yellen to get the Presidential appointment as she is perceived to be one who will keep the stimulus taps flowing. The dollar is also losing some steam as the likelihood of an American attack on Syria diminishes, higher yielding currencies (countries with higher interest rates) have benefited from this with the Aussie Dollar and New Zealand Dollar getting much stronger. GBP.USD continues its march higher, once again the pound reached new highs with the currency pair jumping to 1.6420 on the back of the weaker US Dollar.

With the weaker US Dollar the Loonie has been able to extend its recent strength as it looks to break below the 1.0300 level today but once again I think any Canadian Dollar strength will be very gradual and the USD.CAD currency pair will always be subject to a rapid rise if any negative news hits the market, I still favour US Dollar buyers taking advantage of these levels by putting on some forward buys-

Up today we get some secondary US data so we are not expecting any dramatic moves, we should see USD.CAD test the 1.0300 level at some point to see if the US Dollar is well supported at that level. Later in the week we get the Canadian Retail Sales report for August and CPI report on Friday. Most important will be the US Federal Reserve meeting on Wednesday were a consensus seems to be growing that the Fed will start to turn off the stimulus taps, more on this later in the week.

Have a great week.

Mike

GFX Morning Currency Rates
Currencies	7:00am Today's Opening				Yesterday's Opening
USD/CAD		1.0297			1.0329
CAD/USD		0.9711			0.9681
EUR/USD		1.3347			1.3284
EUR/CAD		1.3745			1.3724
STG/CAD		1.6402			1.6331
AUD/CAD		0.9654			0.9556
CAD/JPY		96.01			96.47
CAD/CHF		0.9001			0.9018
CAD/HKD		7.5249			7.5017
CAD/CNY		5.94			5.923
CAD/MXN		12.5629			12.7044
Commodities
Gold		$1,315.00			$1,315.00
OIL		$106.85			$107.55
US DOLLAR INDEX
P.CLOSE		81.68			81.69
OPEN		81.33			81.77
US 10YR YIELD		2.81%			2.91%

 

 

 

GFX Morning FX Commentary September 14th, 2013

Good Morning,

Today's expected range for the Canadian Dollar against the US Dollar is 1.0300-1.0380

Today's expected range for the Canadian Dollar against the Euro is 1.3720-1.3800

Today's expected range for the Canadian Dollar against Sterling is 1.6320-1.6400

My apologies if you did not see the commentary yesterday, the email service we use was having some issues, I always post the commentary on our Blog so I'd you never get it in your email you can always find it there.

The US Dollar is marginally stronger this morning on the expectation that the US Retail Sales Report for August will be a strong one and on rumours that Obama will name Lawrence Summers the new Chairman of the Federal Reserve later this year to replace the retiring Ben Bernanke. From what I read Summers is considered more of a hawk which implies that he would favour higher interest rates sooner than some of his rivals.

The Canadian Dollar had one of its smallest trading ranges yesterday and that continued into the overnight session, the Loonie continues to hold onto its strength from last week's employment report but I get a sense that this particular move may be running out of steam.

We do get a slew of US economic reports including the above mentioned Retail Sales report so I am expecting some positive numbers out of the US if we see very strong numbers then we should see USD.CAD move back towards 1.0350.

Have a great weekend

Mike

GFX Morning Currency Rates
Currencies	7:00am Today's Opening				Yesterday's Opening
USD/CAD		1.0329			1.0322
CAD/USD		0.9681			0.9688
EUR/USD		1.3284			1.3294
EUR/CAD		1.3724			1.3724
STG/CAD		1.6331			1.6328
AUD/CAD		0.9556			0.9546
CAD/JPY		96.47			96.24
CAD/CHF		0.9018			0.9011
CAD/HKD		7.5017			7.5058
CAD/CNY		5.923			5.9283
CAD/MXN		12.7044			12.701
Commodities
Gold		$1,315.00			$1,342.00
OIL		$107.55			$108.51
US DOLLAR INDEX
P.CLOSE		81.69			81.71
OPEN		81.77			81.72
US 10YR YIELD		2.91%			2.91%

 

 

 

GFX Morning FX Cmmentary September 12th, 2013

Good Morning

Today’s expected range for the Canadian Dollar against the US Dollar is 1.0280-1.0350

Today’s expected range for the Canadian Dollar against the Euro is 1.3700-1.3770

Today’s expected range for the Canadian Dollar against Sterling is 1.6310-1.6370.

The US Dollar is for the most part unchanged against most currencies after what looks to be a very quiet overnight session. The Euro is slightly weaker against the Greenback as the EU Industrial Report came in  a little weaker than expected, EURO.USD dropped to trade below 1.3300 for the first time in a few days. The other currency that moved a little was the Japanese Yen, it traded stronger for the 2^nd day as machinery orders were poorer than expected and a new sales tax is expected to slow economic  growth. It seems funny but whenever Japan produces negative economic news the Yen actually gets stronger, this is generally because the Yen like the US Dollar is considered a safe-haven currency and when bad news is reported money that Japanese investors have invested overseas starts flowing back into  the country to protect it from devaluing.

The Canadian Dollar had  a very quiet session last night but did manage to hold onto its strength from yesterday afternoon, if this trend continues we should see a test of 1.0300 at some point. With only secondary economic data today I would again not expect much of a trading range, this has been  a great run for the Canadian Dollar and given that a turnaround can happen very quickly I still think US Dollar buyers should be looking at these levels to  buy some US on a forward basis.

I will be out of the office today but Randy will be here if you need anything.

Have a great day

Mike

GFX Morning Currency Rates
Currencies	7:00am Today's Opening				Yesterday's Opening
USD/CAD		1.0322			1.0334
CAD/USD		0.9688			0.9677
EUR/USD		1.3294			1.3254
EUR/CAD		1.3724			1.3702
STG/CAD		1.6328			1.63
AUD/CAD		0.9546			0.9615
CAD/JPY		96.24			96.98
CAD/CHF		0.9011			0.9032
CAD/HKD		7.5058			7.5021
CAD/CNY		5.9283			5.9198
CAD/MXN		12.701			12.6656
Commodities
Gold		$1,342.00			$1,363.00
OIL		$108.51			$107.67
US DOLLAR INDEX
P.CLOSE		81.71			81.82
OPEN		81.72			81.81
US 10YR YIELD		2.91%			2.94%

 

 

 

GFX Morning FX Commentary September 11th, 2013

Good Morning,

Today’s expected range for the Canadian Dollar against the US Dollar is 1.0300-1.0370

Today’s expected range for the Canadian Dollar against the Euro is 1.3690-1.3760

Today’s expected range for the Canadian Dollar against Sterling is 1.6290-1.6370

The US Dollar is marginally weaker this morning in mostly quiet overnight trading ranges as Sterling was the only real mover. This morning GBP.USD rose to trade at a 7-month high as the UK employment report was much better than expected, with the Bank of England tying any interest hikes to a reduction in unemployment to 7%, markets are reacting to any improvement in the UK employment picture. The current UK unemployment rate is 7.8%  so it still has a way to go but investors seem to like everything there are seeing out of the UK at the moment.

Financial markets seem to very neutral on Obama’s Syrian speech last night, there does not appear to be any appetite from Congress or the American people for military intervention so it looks like Putin has done Obama a huge favour with his proposal to put the chemical weapons under international control. I would not believe for a second that Syria will turnover all their chemical weapons to Russia so it will be interesting to see if Obama keeps the pressure on.

The Canadian Dollar had a very quiet overnight trading range as it looks to settle in around the 1.0350 trading level. With Syria now on the back burner for the time being there is not much on the horizon that will get the currency moving, we get more economic information later in the week but with only US Wholesale trade due out today I think we will have a subdued trading range.

 

Have a great day

Mike

GFX Morning Currency Rates
Currencies	7:00am Today's Opening				Yesterday's Opening
USD/CAD		1.0334			1.0355
CAD/USD		0.9677			0.9657
EUR/USD		1.3254			1.3244
EUR/CAD		1.3702			1.3717
STG/CAD		1.63			1.6259
AUD/CAD		0.9615			0.9616
CAD/JPY		96.98			96.66
CAD/CHF		0.9037			0.9024
CAD/HKD		7.5021			7.4827
CAD/CNY		5.9198			5.9078
CAD/MXN		12.6281			12.6656
Commodities
Gold		$1,363			$1,372.00
OIL		$107.67			$108.65
US DOLLAR INDEX
P.CLOSE					81.82
OPEN		81.81			81.92
US 10YR YIELD		2.94%			2.89%

 

 

 

 

 

GFX Morning FX Commentary September 10th, 2013

Good Morning,

Today’s expected range for the Canadian Dollar against the US Dollar is 1.0300-1.0380

Today’s expected range for the Canadian Dollar against the Euro is 1.3650-1.3730

Today’s expected range for the Canadian Dollar against Sterling is 1.6200-1.6275

The US Dollar is mixed this morning as the threat of the US launching missiles at Syria seem to have diminished for the time being. Financial markets seem to have embraced the Russian proposal as a solution to the Chemical weapons problem, equity markets around the world were all positive overnight and the US Dollar was weaker against the Commodity currencies as the demand for safe haven assets (US Treasury Bonds) has diminished. The markets were also helped by better than expected growth data out of China, EURO.USD fell to trade at 1.3230 which was a big move after it traded stronger all day yesterday, Sterling was a bit stronger as a better than expected housing report gave it a bit of a boost.

As I mention the commodity currencies are all stronger this morning on the Chinese data and stronger equity markets. The Canadian Dollar has again been a beneficiary of these developments as it continued to strengthen during the overnight session, the combination of calming markets and a couple of strong Canadian economic reports have stopped the Loonie from weakening and seem to be pushing USD.CAD lower. The thought that an American attack on Syria would push USD.CAD higher seems to be diminishing so in the short-term we may see USD.CAD push towards 1.0300 at some point today.

The only economic data due to be released today is Canadian Housing starts at 08:15, if this number is strong then we could see the push to 1.0300 start to unfold, I prefer a bit of a pullback towards 1.0350/1.0375 to start the day but that would most likely need a poor housing number. If you are a USD Dollar buyer you really need to be thinking about doing some forwards at these levels, just last week you would have been paying 1.0550 for your US Dollars and now you may get them at 1.0300, there is nothing wrong with taking money off the table when you get a winning hand.

Have a great day

Mike

GFX Morning Currency Rates
Currencies	7:00am Today's Opening				Yesterday's Opening
USD/CAD		1.0355			1.0385
CAD/USD		0.9657			0.963
EUR/USD		1.3244			1.3192
EUR/CAD		1.3717			1.3702
STG/CAD		1.6259			1.6277
AUD/CAD		0.9616			0.9554
CAD/JPY		96.66			95.8
CAD/CHF		0.9024			0.9017
CAD/HKD		7.4827			7.4614
CAD/CNY		5.9078			5.8912
CAD/MXN		12.6656			12.71
Commodities
Gold		$1,372.00			$1,386.00
OIL		$108.65			$109.95
US DOLLAR INDEX
P.CLOSE		81.82			82.18
OPEN		81.92			82.12
US 10YR YIELD		2.89%			2.94%