GFX Morning Commentary

Good Morning,

Today's expected range for the Canadian Dollar against the US Dollar is 1.0900-1.0970

Today’s expected range for the Canadian Dollar against the Euro is 1.5210-1.5280

Today's expected range for the Canadian Dollar against Sterling is 1.8520-1.8590

The US Dollar is weaker this morning as positive economic news out of the Euro-Zone and the UK helped to push the Greenback lower. In Europe, Spanish bond yields fell as the economy in Spain showed that the unemployment picture was improving and in Germany the Services index came in much better than expected, both the Euro and Sterling tested multi-week highs against the US Dollar, at the moment the US Dollar seems to be under a bit of pressure.

The Canadian Dollar traded stronger against the US Dollar most of yesterday afternoon and is once again approaching levels close to where it was before the US Employment report on Friday, with the gains in both Euro and Sterling the Loonie lost a bit of ground to those currencies. IF the Loonie can hold onto its gains then look for EURO.CAD and GBP.CAD to stay close to current levels over the sort-term.

Up today we have the US and Canadian Trade figures for March, I mentioned yesterday that they were due out but I got my days mixed up. Given the overnight volatility I think we will see USD.CAD continue to test lower at some point this morning but I would be very surprised if we were to break much lower. US Dollar buyers should be looking at these levels as a good opportunity to buy some US.

Have a great day

Mike

GFX Morning Currency Rates
Tuesday May 06, 2014
Currencies	7:00am Today's Opening				Yesterday's Opening
USD/CAD		1.0937			1.0972
CAD/USD		0.9142			0.9114
EUR/USD		1.3933			1.3871
EUR/CAD		1.524			1.5222
STG/CAD		1.8554			1.8508
AUD/CAD		1.0199			1.0165
CAD/JPY		93.14			92.9
CAD/CHF		0.7984			0.7994
CAD/HKD		7.0833			7.0591
CAD/CNY		5.6915			5.687
CAD/MXN		11.9394			11.897
Commodities
Gold		$1,309.00			$1,312.00
OIL		$99.71			$100.31
US DOLLAR INDEX
P.CLOSE		79.49			79.57
OPEN		79.23			79.5
US 10YR YIELD		2.62%			2.57%

 

 

 

 

GFX Morning FX Commentary

Good Morning,

Today's expected range for the Canadian Dollar against the US Dollar is 1.0950-1.1020

Today's expected range for the Canadian Dollar against the Euro is 1.5220-1.5290

Today's expected range for the Canadian Dollar against Sterling is 1.8500-1.8570

The US Dollar is marginally stronger this morning as worries in Europe and China have increased investor demand for safe haven assets. In Europe the EU Commission has downgraded their expectation for inflation and growth over the next two years,  well below their desired targets.‎ The Commission also stated that if the situation in Ukraine worsens that it could have a very negative effect on the very fragile Euro-Zone economy. As long as inflation remains at current levels all of these heavily indebted EU countries will see their growth rate stagnate, debt to GDP rise and the risk of default grow. With this negative news it is hard to imagine the Euro going on a great run anytime soon.

In China a manufacturing index came in lower than expected continuing the string of poor economic data coming out of that country, the Yen was able to garner some strength as money flowed out of the rest of Asia and back home for safe keeping.

The Canadian Dollar is still confined to narrow ranges against the US Dollar, any momentum that it had late last week quickly vanished Friday morning on the strong US Employment report, USD.CAD jumped almost 50 pips in the blink of an eye after the announcement, underlying my fear that any Canadian Dollar weakness down the road will be quick and violent. Overnight the Loonie did manage to recover a little as it get sets up for the Canadian Employment report on Friday.

Up today we do have some trade data in both Canada and the US set to be released, given the momentum that the US Dollar had after Friday’s Employment report I would expect that we may test the higher early on, US Dollar buyers still need to protect themselves against any moves back towards 1.1100 in the coming weeks.

Have a great week

Mike

 

GFX Morning Currency Rates
Currencies	7:00am Today's Opening				Yesterday's Opening
USD/CAD		1.0972			1.0961
CAD/USD		0.9114			0.9123
EUR/USD		1.3871			1.386
EUR/CAD		1.5222			1.5195
STG/CAD		1.8508			1.8483
AUD/CAD		1.0165			1.0143
CAD/JPY		92.9			93.49
CAD/CHF		0.7994			0.8019
CAD/HKD		7.0591			7.0668
CAD/CNY		5.687			5.7085
CAD/MXN		11.897			11.9306
Commodities
Gold		$1,312.00			$1,288.00
OIL		$100.31			$99.83
US DOLLAR INDEX
P.CLOSE		79.57			79.53
OPEN		79.5			79.57
US 10YR YIELD		2.57%			2.63%

 

 

 

GFX Morning Commentary

Good Morning,

Today's expected range for the Canadian Dollar against the US Dollar is 1.0925-1.1000

Today's expected range for the Canadian Dollar against the Euro is 1.5170-1.5240

Today's expected range for the Canadian Dollar against Sterling is 1.8460-1.8530

The US Dollar is for the most part unchanged in quiet overnight markets as global currency traders get set for this morning's US Employment report. The Greenback was a little higher against the Japanese Yen as speculators were betting that the employment report would exceed expectation, in Europe the Euro-Zone unemployment rate held steady at 11.8% across the entire region but of course that does not tell the true story where in parts of the union unemployment runs well over 20%.

The Canadian Dollar had an uneventful night and remains right where we left it going home last night but it does continue to hold onto its strength from earlier in the week. I think today will be a volatile day for the Loonie with the US employment report bringing back some overall volatility into the currency market. A strong Jobs report should push USD.CAD higher and a weaker report just give the Loonie enough of  a push to get to 1.0925.

For the US report we are expecting some 210K new jobs to have been created in April and the unemployment rate to drop to 6.6% down for 6.7%. If you have not already done so make sure you get your orders in early as I think the market will be volatile.

Have a great weekend

Mike

GFX Morning Currency Rates
Friday May 02, 2014
Currencies	7:00am Today's Opening				Yesterday's Opening
USD/CAD		1.0961			1.0976
CAD/USD		0.9123			0.911
EUR/USD		1.386			1.3876
EUR/CAD		1.5195			1.5234
STG/CAD		1.8483			1.8559
AUD/CAD		1.0143			1.0181
CAD/JPY		93.49			93.09
CAD/CHF		0.8019			0.8002
CAD/HKD		7.0668			7.0574
CAD/CNY		5.7085			5.7
CAD/MXN		11.9306			11.9345
Commodities
Gold		$1,288.00			$1,286.00
OIL		$99.83			$99.25
US DOLLAR INDEX
P.CLOSE		79.53			79.52
OPEN		79.57			79.45
US 10YR YIELD		2.63%			2.66%

 

 

GFX Morning FX commentary

Good Morning,

Today's expected range for the Canadian Dollar against the US Dollar is 1.0950-1.1020

Today's expected range for the Canadian Dollar against the Euro is 1.5210-1.5270

Today's expected range for the Canadian Dollar against Sterling is 1.8520-1.8580

The US Dollar is marginally weaker this morning in quiet May Day trading (most of Europe was closed)  as once again strong economic reports out of the UK have pushed the Greenback lower. This morning it was a manufacturing report that came in better than expected and also a housing report that showed home prices jumping the most since the financial crisis of 2008, clearly the UK has the strongest economy right now of the major Western economies. The Euro reached a three week high against the US Dollar as the expectation of further ECB stimulus among Euro traders begins to wane, it looks like the ECB may wait for more data before changing their interest rate policy.

The Canadian Dollar is slowly starting to give back its strength against the US, it is still very narrow trading ranges but at the moment USD.CAD seems to want to inch higher. Yesterday’s US Federal Reserve announcement which maintained the status quo had no effect on the currency market and North American currency traders will now focus on the US Employment report tomorrow.

Up today we get slew of secondary US data which I don’t think will have much effect on the currency market, I still look for USD.CAD to slowly start to move back higher but the day should be uneventful. In addition today we get the Ontario budget where we are expecting massive spending increases alongside tax increases and an abandonment of any pretense to balance the budget deficit. I don't think there will be any short-term effect on the Loonie as most of this budget has been leaked to the public but at some point down the road there will be. If the province continues down this path, one that is very similar to Portugal, Greece, Ireland and others then Government of Ontario Bonds that are being used to finance the debt will hit junk status and a bail-out by the Federal Government will be needed. I shudder to think what an Ontario austerity budget would look like but it would not be pretty. In such a scenario the Canadian Dollar would suffer.

Hard to imagine that we are already into May, have a great month

Mike

GFX Morning Currency Rates
Currencies	7:00am Today's Opening				Yesterday's Opening
USD/CAD		1.0976			1.0963
CAD/USD		0.911			0.9121
EUR/USD		1.3876			1.3829
EUR/CAD		1.5234			1.5264
STG/CAD		1.8559			1.8439
AUD/CAD		1.0181			1.0156
CAD/JPY		93.09			93.53
CAD/CHF		0.8002			0.8043
CAD/HKD		7.0574			7.0655
CAD/CNY		5.7			5.707
CAD/MXN		11.9345			11.9666
Commodities
Gold		$1,286.00			$1,292.00
OIL		$99.25			$100.49
US DOLLAR INDEX
P.CLOSE		79.52			79.81
OPEN		79.45			79.74
US 10YR YIELD		2.66%			2.71%