Thursday, 5 June 2014

GFX Morning Commentary

Good Morning,

Today's expected range for the Canadian Dollar against the US Dollar is 1.0900-1.0960

Today's expected range for the Canadian Dollar against the Euro is 1.4820-1.4880

Today's expected range for the Canadian Dollar against Sterling is 1.8300-1.8360

The US Dollar is for the most part unchanged this morning as the markets got ready for this morning's ECB and Bank of England interest policy announcements.

As we have been reporting over the past month the European Central Bank is expected to announce a massive stimulus program to kick-start the EU economy, it is expected that they will drop their key lending rate to 0.1% from 0.25%, take the interest rate held on deposits at the ECB to    negative -0.25% and start a bond buying program to flood the financial markets‎ with cheap money. As I am writing the ECB announcement has hit the market, they have indeed lowered their key lending rate to 0.10%, they have reduced the deposit rate to -0.1% (banks will pay them to hold their money at the Central bank) and they have reduced their marginal lending facility to .60% from .75%. So far there is no mention of a bond buying program but that may be announced by Governor Draghi at his press conference at 08:30 or he may hint that further stimulus measures will be introduced next month. Shortly after this announcement the Euro did drop a bit against the US Dollar and it does look to be under pressure for the next little while.

The Bank of England as expected did not change its interest rate or stimulus program. The minutes of this meeting will be released in a couple of weeks which many economists will be looking to see if the Bank of England will start to pull back on their stimulus program. Sterling also dropped a little this morning against the US after the ECB announcement.

After a quick weakening yesterday from the Bank of Canada interest rate statement, USD.CAD settled down to a tight overnight trading range, as I mentioned yesterday the Bank of Canada seems to want to help the Loonie trade weaker in an effort to boost the export market. USD.CAD did not have much reaction to the ECB announcement but with the weak Euro, EURO.CAD is moving lower.

In addition to the ECB announcement and press Conference at 08:30 this morning we do get some secondary data from Canada’s housing market today. For the most part North American will have a quiet trading day as we get set up for the Canadian and US employment reports due out tomorrow morning. I look for USD.CAD to trade slightly higher throughout the morning.


‎Have a great day
Mike

GFX Morning Currency Rates
Currencies 7:00am Today's Opening  Yesterday's Opening
USD/CAD 1.0937 1.0928
CAD/USD 0.9143 0.915
EUR/USD 1.3611 1.3611
EUR/CAD 1.4891 1.4874
STG/CAD 1.8343 1.8281
AUD/CAD 1.016 1.013
CAD/JPY 93.68 93.95
CAD/CHF 0.8185 0.8204
CAD/HKD 7.0663 7.0744
CAD/CNY 5.716 5.7165
CAD/MXN 11.8348 11.8595
Commodities
Gold $1,245.00 $1,245.00
OIL $102.33 $103.33
US DOLLAR INDEX
P.CLOSE 80.67 80.55
OPEN 80.58 80.62
US 10YR YIELD 2.58% 2.58%
 

 

 

Wednesday, 4 June 2014

GFX Currency Alert

Good Morning,

As expected the Bank of Canada kept their key interest rate at 1.0%. In their accompanying statement they highlighted the following;

-Core inflation is being pushed higher towards the target rate of 2.0% by higher energy rates
-Global economic growth in the first quarter of 2104 is weaker than they expected which could create downside risks for the Canadian Economy
-calling for an increase in exports brought  on by a weaker Canadian Dollar
-greater investment due to higher corporate profits

There was no mention in this statement about any possible future interest rate hikes so clearly we will have low interest rates in Canada for some time to come.

The Canadian Dollar is weakening off as I though it might but it is not jumping running away.

Mike

 

 

 


 

 

GFX Morning FX Commentary

Good Morning,

Today's expected range for the Canadian Dollar against the US Dollar is 1.0880-1.0950

Today's expected range for the Canadian Dollar against the Euro is 1.4860-1.4920

Today's expected range for the Canadian Dollar against Sterling is 1.8300-1.8360

The US Dollar is stronger this morning as it is benefiting from a jump over the past couple of days in ‎US 10-year bond yields. On the bond markets the 10-year yield has jumped from 2.46% to trade at 2.59% yesterday, this jump is attracting offshore money into the United States and pushing the Dollar higher.

‎In Europe the Euro-Zone 1st Quarter GDP came in with a growth rate of 0.2% dropping from the 0.3% in the last quarter of 2013. It is very clear right now that the ECB will need to really provide massive amounts of stimulus to the EU economy, the big danger is the ECB will disappoint tomorrow and not do enough in the eyes of global investors. In my view Europe is in dire straits and it is all now up to the ECB to sort it out.

The Canadian Dollar which had a strong month in May now is bearing the brunt of the recent US Dollar strength as it continues to get a little weaker every night against the Greenback. I am always amazed that when the Loonie weakens it is always drops quickly but when it garners any strength it is usually a slow grind.

Trading today of course will be dominated by the Bank of Canada interest rate announcement, we are not expecting any changes to the interest rate policy but I won't be surprised if there are some cautionary words in the statement about a slowing economy. I will send out a currency alert shortly after the announcement but I favour a weaker Canadian Dollar after the announcement.


Have a great day
Mike





GFX Morning Currency Rates
Currencies 7:00am Today's Opening  Yesterday's Opening
USD/CAD 1.0928 1.0913
CAD/USD 0.915 0.9163
EUR/USD 1.3611 1.3607
EUR/CAD 1.4874 1.4832
STG/CAD 1.8281 1.8289
AUD/CAD 1.013 1.0114
CAD/JPY 93.95 93.82
CAD/CHF 0.8204 0.8224
CAD/HKD 7.0744 7.1237
CAD/CNY 5.7165 5.7295
CAD/MXN 11.8595 11.8653
Commodities
Gold $1,245.00 $1,246.00
OIL $103.33 $102.29
US DOLLAR INDEX
P.CLOSE 80.55 80.65
OPEN 80.62 80.6
US 10YR YIELD 2.58% 2.56%
 

 

 
 

 

 

Tuesday, 3 June 2014

GFX Morning Commentary

Good Morning,

Today's expected range for the Canadian Dollar against the US Dollar is 1.0880-1.0940

Today's expected range for the Canadian Dollar against the Euro is 1.4850-1.4920

Today's expected range for the Canadian Dollar against Sterling is 1.8260-1.8330

The US Dollar is marginally weaker this morning as both the Euro and Sterling are a little higher. In Europe the Euro is stronger as inflation data showed that inflation is falling faster than expected and in the UK the Pound is higher as a UK house price report came in much better than expected. Once again we see the divergence in the two economies.

In the first round this week of Central Bank interest rate announcements the Reserve Bank of Australia left its key interest rate unchanged and did not reference the Australian Dollar in its statement. Tomorrow we have the Bank of Canada and follow that up on Thursday with the Bank of England and the European Central Bank.

The Canadian Dollar continues to slowly weaken off as it could not maintain its momentum from last week, not only is it losing ground against the Greenback but also against the Euro and Sterling. The weaker than expected Canadian manufacturing number yesterday has contributed to the negative sentiment surrounding the Loonie at the moment.

Up today we have some secondary US data but for the most part it should be a quiet day, I look for USD.CAD to test a bit higher as the shine seems to coming of the Loonie at the moment.
 

Have a great day

Mike

GFX Morning Currency Rates
Currencies 7:00am Today's Opening  Yesterday's Opening
USD/CAD 1.0913 1.0854
CAD/USD 0.9163 0.9213
EUR/USD 1.3607 1.3605
EUR/CAD 1.4832 1.477
STG/CAD 1.8289 1.8192
AUD/CAD 1.0114 1.0049
CAD/JPY 93.82 93.93
CAD/CHF 0.8224 0.8267
CAD/HKD 7.1237 7.1213
CAD/CNY 5.7295 5.7533
CAD/MXN 11.8653 11.8691
Commodities
Gold $1,246.00 $1,246.00
OIL $102.29 $103.00
US DOLLAR INDEX
P.CLOSE 80.65 80.43
OPEN 80.6 80.52
US 10YR YIELD 2.56% 2.49%

 

 
 

 

Monday, 2 June 2014

GFX Morning Commentary

Good Morning,

Today's expected range for the Canadian Dollar against the US Dollar is 1.0840-1.0900

Today's expected range for the Canadian Dollar against the Euro is 1.4760-1.4820

Today's expected range for the Canadian Dollar against Sterling is 1.8170-1.8240

The US Dollar is marginally stronger to start the new trading month as the currency markets get set up for what should be a very busy week highlighted by the ECB decision on Thursday on interest rates and stimulus.‎ Trading ranges were narrow to start the month with Sterling the most active as it dropped on poor housing data. Sterling seems to be getting very vulnerable to any negative news, I think it is because so many traders have been riding the strong push over the last 6 months that anytime there is bad news they all get nervous and start to sell off their holdings. In Europe the Euro was slightly lower on poorer than expected manufacturing data, the pressure is mounting for the ECB to do something decisive this week.


The Canadian Dollar is a bit weaker this morning as it could not extend its gains from Friday. It should be a busy week for the Loonie highlighted by the Bank of Canada interest rate announcement on Wednesday and the Unemployment report on Friday.

Up today we have the US manufacturing data out of the US, I think the markets will be looking to see if the recent trend of poor American data is set to continue this month, a poor number may give USD.CAD the necessary push to drop towards 1.0800.

Have a great month
Mike


GFX Morning Currency Rates
Currencies 7:00am Today's Opening  Yesterday's Opening
USD/CAD 1.0854 1.0827
CAD/USD 0.9213 0.9236
EUR/USD 1.3605 1.3608
EUR/CAD 1.477 1.4735
STG/CAD 1.8192 1.8118
AUD/CAD 1.0049 1.0077
CAD/JPY 93.93 93.87
CAD/CHF 0.8267 0.8279
CAD/HKD 7.1213 7.1398
CAD/CNY 5.7533 5.7683
CAD/MXN 11.8691 11.8927
Commodities
Gold $1,246.00 $1,253.00
OIL $103.00 $103.24
US DOLLAR INDEX
P.CLOSE 80.43 80.48
OPEN 80.52 80.45
US 10YR YIELD 2.49% 2.47%