GFX Morning FX Commentary

Good Morning,

Today's expected range for the Canadian Dollar against the US Dollar is 1.1140-1.1200

Today's expected range for the Canadian Dollar against the Euro is 1.4070-1.4130

Today's expected range for the Canadian Dollar against Sterling is 1.7940-1.8000

The US dollar is ‎stronger this morning as it has had a quick recovery from its drop yesterday. The big driver behind the stronger USD was German industrial Production last month falling at its fastest pace since 2009, if the German economy falters so goes the rest of Europe. Sterling was able to make some small gains notably against the Euro as the UK manufacturing grew for the third month in a row, a clear sign of the divergence of the economies in Europe and the UK.

In interest rate news the Reserve  Bank of Australia left its key rate unchanged. Markets were a bit surprised as they were expecting a cut in interest rates, if the Aussie Dollar jumps in value over the next little while then you will see another round of interest rate cuts.

The Canadian Dollar gave back most of its gains from yesterday as the strong US Dollar overnight pushed USD.CAD higher. As long as this strong US Dollar trend remains intact I just can't envision the Loonie having any sustained bouts of strength, markets still favour US dollar sellers, US Dollar buyers need to be ready with their orders anytime the rate drops.

Up today we have only have the Canadian Building Permits report for August being released. This can be a quite volatile number so we may get a surprise but overall I don’t expect it to have too much effect on the currency, we should stay close to the expected range for today.

Have a great day

Mike

GFX Morning Currency Rates
Currencies	7:00am Today's Opening				Yesterday's Opening
USD/CAD		1.1172			1.1215
CAD/USD		0.8951			0.8916
EUR/USD		1.259			1.2551
EUR/CAD		1.4068			1.4079
STG/CAD		1.7943			1.7928
AUD/CAD		0.8779			0.9794
CAD/JPY		97.22			97.46
CAD/CHF		0.8603			0.8604
CAD/HKD		6.9179			6.8948
CAD/CNY		5.4945			5.4689
CAD/MXN		12.0467			11.9585
Commodities
Gold		$1,204.00			$1,195.00
OIL		$90.18			$90.28
US DOLLAR INDEX
P.CLOSE		85.74			86.8
OPEN		86.06			86.38
US 10YR YIELD		2.42%			2.43%

 

 

 

 

GFX Morning FX Commentary

Good Morning,

Today's expected range for the Canadian Dollar against the US Dollar is 1.1190-1.1250

Today's expected range for the Canadian Dollar against the Euro is 1.4090-1.4150

Today's expected range for the Canadian Dollar against the Euro is 1.7930-1.7990

The US Dollar is marginally weaker this morning in spite of a poor German Factory report that showed orders fell the most last month since 2009. It looks like currency traders woke up on Monday morning and decided that the US Dollar strength may have been a bit too much too soon and pushed it back a little. I still think the strong US Dollar trend is still intact as we saw after the very strong US employment report on Friday but we may see a period of range trading at the moment to give the markets time to consolidate  before the next move.

The Canadian Dollar was able to pull back a little bit on the weaker US Dollar overnight but it is still trading near its recent highs and most market pundits are still calling for USD.CAD to be higher by the end of the year.

Activity this week will be highlighted by the Canadian Employment report for September on Friday but ahead of that we have the minutes from the last Federal Reserve meeting on Wednesday,  US Wholesale Trade and the Bank of England Policy announcement on Thursday and the Bank of Canada Business Outlook Survey on Friday after the Employment report. Not an overly busy week when it comes to releases but it will be highlighted by the Employment report.

Up today there is only the  Canadian Ivey Purchasing Managers Index on the North American calendar so we will most likely range trade ahead of that release,  it looks like the Loonie will do a little better to start the week so US Dollar buyers need to be ready with orders close to the market to take advantage of any pullback.

Have a great week

Mike

GFX Morning Currency Rates
Currencies	7:00am Today's Opening				Yesterday's Opening
USD/CAD		1.1215			1.1178
CAD/USD		0.8916			0.8946
EUR/USD		1.2551			1.2616
EUR/CAD		1.4079			1.4105
STG/CAD		1.7928			1.7966
AUD/CAD		0.9794			0.9778
CAD/JPY		97.46			97.44
CAD/CHF		0.8604			0.8568
CAD/HKD		6.8948			6.9197
CAD/CNY		5.4689			5.485
CAD/MXN		11.9585			12.0138
Commodities
Gold		$1,195.00			$1,207.00
OIL		$90.28			$90.79
US DOLLAR INDEX
P.CLOSE		86.8			85.65
OPEN		86.38			85.98
US 10YR YIELD		2.43%			2.44%

 

 

 

 

GFX Morning FX Commentary

Good Morning,

Today's expected range for the Canadian Dollar against the US Dollar is 1.1150-1.1220

Today's expected range for the Canadian Dollar against the Euro is 1.4100-1.4170

Today's expected range for the Canadian Dollar against Sterling is 1.7980-1.8050

The US Dollar is stronger this morning as both Euro and Sterling are well off their highs from yesterday, the Dollar is picking up steam on the back of expectation that the US economy will have created some 215K new jobs last night month. The expectation is that a very strong labour market will lead the Federal Reserve to increase interest rates in the first quarter of 2015 which will continue to push the Greenback higher. Trading was a little light last night as a number of financial centers were on holiday, this factor may add some volatility around the release of the jobs report this morning.

The rally that was the Canadian Dollar on Wednesday night is now gone and USD.CAD is right back where it was before the big drop in USD.CAD, the trend for currency pair to move higher is still intact. Last night saw USD.CAD slowly move higher in a narrow range in reaction to the overall strong US Dollar, if we get a very strong US Jobs report today look for the inter-bank rate to jump back above 1.12000, a negative report will help push the rate back lower.

In addition to the US jobs report out this morning we have more manufacturing data out of the US and we have some Canadian Trade data, the Canadian jobs report will be due out next Friday. Either way I think we will have a volatile morning and then the market will stabilize as the week winds down.

Have a great weekend

Mike

GFX Morning Currency Rates
Currencies	7:00am Today's Opening				Yesterday's Opening
USD/CAD		1.1178			1.1121
CAD/USD		0.8946			0.8992
EUR/USD		1.2616			1.2636
EUR/CAD		1.4105			1.4055
STG/CAD		1.7966			1.7955
AUD/CAD		0.9778			0.9761
CAD/JPY		97.44			97.63
CAD/CHF		0.8568			0.8593
CAD/HKD		6.9197			6.9602
CAD/CNY		5.485			5.5181
CAD/MXN		12.0138			12.0877
Commodities
Gold		$1,207.00			$1,214.00
OIL		$90.79			$88.71
US DOLLAR INDEX
P.CLOSE		85.65			85.92
OPEN		85.98			85.79
US 10YR YIELD		2.44%			2.40%

 

 

 

 

GFX Morning FX Commentary

Good Morning,

Today’s expected range for the Canadian Dollar against the US Dollar is 1.1100-1.1170

Today’s expected range for the Canadian Dollar against the Euro is 1.4060-1.4120

Today’s expected range for the Canadian Dollar against Sterling is 1.7970-1.8050

The US Dollar is mixed this morning as it is unchanged against the Euro (after trading weaker during the night) and it is stronger against Sterling. Overall the Dollar index fell the most it has in two weeks with the commodity currencies being the biggest beneficiaries of the overnight move. Up today we should again see volatility on the rise as we get the European Central Bank reporting on interest rates, I will not be surprised that given the current situation in Europe if Governor Draghi announces more stimulus to try and push the economy forward, as I write the ECB has left interest rates unchanged but markets will be waiting for his press conference later this morning.

As mentioned above the commodity currencies were the biggest gainers last night led by the Canadian Dollar as USD.CAD dropped almost 100 points during the overnight session in Asia. When the London market opened USD.CAD moved back a bit higher, companies that had US Dollar buy orders in place were able to take advantage of this move. On the surface of it there is no apparent reason for the Loonie to have rallied so much, I am not convinced that we have seen a change in the strong US Dollar trend and I think this is just the pullback we were looking for before another move higher, markets rarely move in a straight line for an extended period of time so this type of move is not uncommon.  I can’t say enough times that US buyers need to be ready with their orders  to take advantage of these types of moves, they are not occurring all that often and you need to be ready, the trend is still for USD.CAD to go higher.

In addition to the ECB we have the US Factory orders for August due out this morning, yesterday saw the release of the US ISM manufacturing data disappoint the market so I think traders will pay a little extra attention to this Factory number, a disappointing report may give USD.CAD a push lower in the short-term. Either way I think we will be in for a volatile morning.

Have a great day

Mike

GFX Morning Currency Rates
Currencies	7:00am Today's Opening				Yesterday's Opening
USD/CAD		1.1121			1.121
CAD/USD		0.8992			0.892
EUR/USD		1.2636			1.2596
EUR/CAD		1.4055			1.4123
STG/CAD		1.7955			1.816
AUD/CAD		0.9761			0.9753
CAD/JPY		97.63			97.94
CAD/CHF		0.8593			0.8546
CAD/HKD		6.9602			6.9035
CAD/CNY		5.5181			5.4735
CAD/MXN		12.0877			12.0061
Commodities
Gold		$1,214.00			$1,209.00
OIL		$88.71			$92.90
US DOLLAR INDEX
P.CLOSE		85.92			85.93
OPEN		85.79			86.1
US 10YR YIELD		2.40%			2.48%

 

 

 

 

 

 

GFX Morning FX Commentary

Good Morning,

Today's expected range for the Canadian Dollar against the US Dollar is 1.1180-1.1250

Today's expected range for the Canadian Dollar against the Euro is 1.4120-1.4180

Today's expected range for the Canadian Dollar against Sterling is 1.8140-18200

The US Dollar is again stronger this morning as it continues its record breaking assent. The Greenback rose to 110.00 against the Yen (the first time since August of 2008), the Aussie Dollar continued to drop as Retail Sales was weaker than expected and in Europe the Euro was lower on poorer than expected manufacturing data. Today we are expecting the US ADP employment report where it is expected that private payrolls added another 200K jobs to the economy last month, that would be the 6th month in a row this increase has happened, I am not sure much of anything can derail the US Dollar rise at the moment.

The Canadian Dollar continues to weaken off against the US Dollar, not only is the US Dollar overall strength driving USD.CAD higher but yesterday's flat Canadian GDP reading shows our economy is doing nothing while the US economy is roaring ahead. At some point the weak Loonie will help push the economy forward but that is a trickledown effect and will take several months to unfold. For now we may see some trading back and forth but there is every reason to think that USD.CAD will move higher in the short-term.

In addition to the ADP Employment report today we also get the US ISM Manufacturing data for August so I think we will continue to see strong data coming out of the US pushing the Greenback higher. I think we do need a bit of a pullback to give the market a breather but if the data is very strong then we could see USD.CAD move past the 1.1250 level today.

Have a great day
Mike

GFX Morning Currency Rates
Currencies	7:00am Today's Opening				Yesterday's Opening
USD/CAD		1.121			1.117
CAD/USD		0.892			0.8951
EUR/USD		1.2596			1.2594
EUR/CAD		1.4123			1.4071
STG/CAD		1.816			1.8087
AUD/CAD		0.9753			0.9751
CAD/JPY		97.94			98.11
CAD/CHF		0.8546			0.8571
CAD/HKD		6.9035			6.9311
CAD/CNY		5.4735			6.4924
CAD/MXN		12.0061			12.1003
Commodities
Gold		$1,209.00			$1,209.00
OIL		$94.90			$94.66
US DOLLAR INDEX
P.CLOSE		85.93			85.6
OPEN		86.1			86.02
US 10YR YIELD		2.48%			2.51%