GFX Morning Commentary

Good Morning,

Today’s expected range for the Canadian Dollar against the US Dollar is 1.1400-1.1500

Today’s expected range for the Canadian Dollar against the Euro is 1.4170-1.4240

Today’s expected range for the Canadian Dollar against Sterling is 1.8100-1.8175

The US Dollar is unchanged for the most part as the currency markets get ready for the release of the US Employment report later this morning. The Euro moved considerably lower yesterday as the European markets reacted to ECB Governor Draghi’s statements that he has deepened his commitment to stimulus and stands ready to add additional measures if needed. He maintained his plan that that the Central Bank will not increase interest rates for at least 2 years. I have been saying for a while that the Euro-Zone has been a mess for a while and I am further convinced that there is lots of pain left yet for all Europeans.

The Canadian Dollar had a very quiet night against the US Dollar as it continues to struggle, given the current situation there is no reason to think that the Loonie slide will stop so US Dollar buyers are still facing higher rates over the short-term. Because we have been so weak against the US Dollar we have not really been able to take advantage of the Euro slide against the US Dollar, EURO.CAD has been range trading for quite a while now and we may yet see the Loonie lose ground to the Euro in the coming days if we keep dropping against the Greenback.

Up today we have the US and Canadian Employment reports for October due out, in the US we are looking for the economy to have created 225,000 new jobs and the unemployment rate staying at 5.9%. In Canada we are expecting the economy to have shed 10k jobs after the Septembers increase of 75K jobs, this confirms my view that the Canadian economy is doing nothing at the moment. Given that the bank economists cannot even get close on these numbers I am expecting a wide swing and lots of volatility, it should be a very busy morning.

Have a great weekend

Mike

GFX Morning Currency Rates
Currencies	7:00am Today's Opening				Yesterday's Opening
USD/CAD		1.1436			1.1397
CAD/USD		0.8744			0.8774
EUR/USD		1.239			1.2522
EUR/CAD		1.4173			1.4279
STG/CAD		1.8098			1.8185
AUD/CAD		0.9824			0.9816
CAD/JPY		100.72			100.53
CAD/CHF		0.8492			0.8441
CAD/HKD		6.756			6.7815
CAD/CNY		5.3535			5.3392
CAD/MXN		11.9228			11.9318
Commodities
Gold		$1,144.70			$1,145.00
OIL		$78.15			$78.39
US DOLLAR INDEX
P.CLOSE		88			87.43
OPEN		88.15			87.24
US 10YR YIELD		2.39%			2.33%

 

 

 

GFX Morning FX Commentary

Good Morning,

 

Today’s suggested range for the Canadian dollar against the US 1.1350 – 1.1425

 Today’s suggested range for the Canadian dollar against the Euro is 1.4200 – 1.4300

 Today’s suggested range for the Canadian dollar against Sterling is 1.8190 – 1.8290

 

The US dollar index has retreated slightly against most currency pairs with the lone exception being the Canadian dollar. The Japanese Yen rallied off seven year lows with recent movements seen overdone. The Aussie dollar strengthened overnight after the Reserve Bank of Australia left interest rates alone.

 The European single currency rallied for the first time in five days ahead of U.S. factory orders for September due out at 9:00am with expectations for a drop of 0.2% an improvement from the previous month`s slide of 10.1%.

 

The USD/CAD is fast approaching the 1.1400 handle as the price of oil is severely weighing on the Canadian dollar dropping another $2 a barrel overnight to open the North American session at $76.70 despite calls from Saudi Arabia to cut production. Another factor underlying the bearish sentiment on the currency is the fact that the Bank of Canada Governor still sees risks to the economy with no rush to raise interest rates.

Yesterday it was noted that real money managers were aggressively buying USD/CAD at 1.1300 which should prove to be short term support ahead of the CAD payroll data on Friday.

 

Today the economic calendar includes trade balances for both the U.S. and Canada. The price of gold held steady overnight with Dow futures lower by lower by 24 points.

 

Have a great day!

 

GFX Morning Currency Rates
Tuesday November 04, 2014
Currencies	7:00am Today's Opening				Yesterday's Opening
USD/CAD		1.1391			1.1283
CAD/USD		0.8779			0.8863
EUR/USD		1.2511			1.2491
EUR/CAD		1.4256			1.4096
STG/CAD		1.8225			1.8053
AUD/CAD		0.9957			0.9849
CAD/JPY		94.49			100.45
CAD/CHF		0.8452			0.8549
CAD/HKD		6.783			6.8514
CAD/CNY		5.365			5.42
CAD/MXN		11.9861			11.9633
Commodities
Gold		$1,172.00			$1,172.00
OIL		$76.70			$80.69
US DOLLAR INDEX
P.CLOSE		87.31			86.98
OPEN		87.15			87.15
US 10YR YIELD		2.32%			2.32%

 

GFX Morning FX Commentary

Good Morning,

Today’s expected range for the Canadian Dollar against the US Dollar is 1.1260-1.1330

Today’s expected range for the Canadian Dollar against the Euro is 1.4100-1.4170

Today’s expected range for the Canadian Dollar against Sterling is 1.8050-1.8220

The US Dollar is marginally stronger this morning with the biggest move coming against the Japanese Yen overnight. The announcement last week by the Japanese Central Bank to increase stimulus measures have continued to weaken the Yen pushing USD.YEN to a 7-year high, the Greenback was also helped higher overnight by poorer than expected Chinese manufacturing data. Both Euro and Sterling were a little weaker with EURO.USD still flirting with the 1.2500 level, I still look for the strong US Dollar trend to remain intact over the short and medium-term.

The Canadian Dollar still remains under pressure when compared to it US counterpart, we are basically at the level now to start the week where we closed on Friday but the Loonie did trade a bit weaker during the night before recovering back to current levels earlier this morning. There is a very strong chance that USD.CAD will once again test the highs above 1.1300 that we saw two weeks past at some point in the next couple of days.

We have a busy week on the economic front to start the new trading month. Up today we get some secondary US manufacturing data, Tuesday we get Canadian Trade data along with US Factory Orders. As the week progresses we get both EU and BOE interest rate announcements followed on Friday by both US and Canadian Employment reports, overall I think we will have a very volatile week, make sure you get your orders in early this week to take advantage of any potential moves.

Have a great month.

Mike

GFX Morning Currency Rates
Currencies	7:00am Today's Opening				Yesterday's Opening
USD/CAD		1.1283			1.1195
CAD/USD		0.8863			0.8932
EUR/USD		1.2491			1.2574
EUR/CAD		1.4096			1.4079
STG/CAD		1.8053			1.7914
AUD/CAD		0.9849			0.9879
CAD/JPY		100.45			99.74
CAD/CHF		0.8549			0.8565
CAD/HKD		6.8514			6.9046
CAD/CNY		5.42			5.458
CAD/MXN		11.9633			11.9999
Commodities
Gold		$1,172.00			$1,173.00
OIL		$80.69			$80.39
US DOLLAR INDEX
P.CLOSE		86.98			86.17
OPEN		87.15			86.6
US 10YR YIELD		2.32%			2.32%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

GFX Currency Alert

Good Morning,

Just a quick update that the US Dollar surge is continuing. EURO.USD has just reached a 6 year low at 1.2500 which was a short-term target for many big banks, the Dow Jones Average and the S&P are both trading at record highs.

The Canadian Dollar is taking it on the chin as it is off almost 75 points this morning against the US Dollar, there is no reason to think that this trend will stop anytime soon. US Dollar buyers need to get their orders in to buy some on any small pullbacks. Very volatile trading at the moment.

Mike

 

 

 

 

 

 

GFX Morning FX Commentary

Good Morning,

Today’s expected range for the Canadian Dollar against the US Dollar is 1.1160-1.1240

Today’s expected range for the Canadian Dollar against the Euro is 1.4080-1.4150

Today’s expected range for the Canadian Dollar against Sterling is 1.7920-1.7990

The US Dollar is marginally weaker against Sterling and the Euro but dramatically stronger against the Japanese Yen this morning. In the Overnight session the Bank of Japan announced a new stimulus package for the country and the countries pension plans stated they would be putting more money into stocks and less into bonds. As you could imagine Equity Markets around the world have jumped higher on this news, in particular the Japanese Nikkei market almost jumped 5%. In Europe recent stimulus measures were somewhat rewarded this morning as the Euro inflation rate jumped 0.4% last month which was slightly better than the market expectation and should give the deflation concerns a bit of a rest. Unemployment is still another problem in Europe as EU unemployment rate remained at 11.5%, imagine what the real number actually is!

The Canadian Dollar traded in a narrow range against the US last night losing a tiny bit of ground but for the most part it is still range bound in light trading, the Loonie did lose the strength that it had picked up when the US GDP report came out yesterday.  As you would expect the Loonie did make great gains against the Yen going from 97.70 before the announcement trading up near 100.00 afterwards. If any clients need to buy Yen you may want to take advantage of this new rate.

Trading today will be dominated by the Canadian GDP report for August, we are expecting a flat growth rate, (0.0% same as last month) and a yearly growth rate of 2.3% (down from last month’s 2.5%). When you factor in an inflation rate at 2.0% there is virtually no real growth in the Canadian economy and if the price of oil keeps dropping it will only push the economy down further, not a pretty picture for sustained growth in the Canadian Dollar.

Have a great weekend and a very scary Halloween.

Mike

 

GFX Morning Currency Rates
Currencies	7:00am Today's Opening				Yesterday's Opening
USD/CAD		1.1195			1.1193
CAD/USD		0.8932			0.8934
EUR/USD		1.2574			1.2591
EUR/CAD		1.4079			1.4098
STG/CAD		1.7914			1.7913
AUD/CAD		0.9879			0.9841
CAD/JPY		99.74			97.31
CAD/CHF		0.8565			0.8598
CAD/HKD		6.9046			6.9092
CAD/CNY		5.458			5.4606
CAD/MXN		11.9999			12.065
Commodities
Gold		$1,173.00			$1,205.00
OIL		$80.39			$81.34
US DOLLAR INDEX
P.CLOSE		86.17			86.01
OPEN		86.6			85.25
US 10YR YIELD		2.32%			2.31%