GFX Morning FX Commentary November 23rd, 2012

Good Morning,

Today’s expected range for the Canadian Dollar against the US Dollar is .9930-1.0000

Today’s expected range for the Canadian Dollar against the Euro is 1.2840-1.2900

Today’s expected range for the Canadian Dollar against Sterling is 1.5860-1.5925

The US Dollar is marginally weaker this morning as EURO.USD has reached a three week high on a better than expected business confidence report in Germany. If EU leaders can now get their act together on Greece then you may see EURO.USD jump back towards 1.3000 in the coming days. I would still favour selling the Euro on any strength as there are many other problems that EU leaders are not effectively dealing with and they are sure to weigh on global markets.

Another problem in the Middle East this morning as Egyptian leader Morsi announced that he was giving himself absolute power over the country. Protests are taking place in Tahrir Square but this time you will have opposing sides facing off, the Muslim Brotherhood against the rest of the country that wants democracy. Given the size of the demonstrations last year I could easily see this leading to a civil war.

The Canadian Dollar has opened and closed in North America at the same level for the past two days, so to say that currency traders are ignoring the Canadian Dollar might  be a bit of an understatement. I am not holding out much hope for a big range today as currency traders on both sides of the border are out shopping at WalMart at the moment. I parked at the Eaton Centre this morning and the stores were open at 6:00 am and the Mall was quite busy, hopefully Canadian retailers will fare better and take a bite out of cross border shopping. Financial markets will watch closely the Black Friday sales over the next few days, they will be looking for any signs that US consumers are out spending this holiday season, I am not sure when the numbers from today are released, it might be Monday but if sales are down look for equities to get hit hard and the US Dollar will jump. Again another reason for US Dollar buyers to think about putting on some forward contract at present levels.

The Smiths will be out and about tonight watching the Vanier Cup at the Rogers Centre, I went to McMaster some 100 years ago (as did child #3, she graduated just last year) so we will be out in force to cheer on the Marauders, have a great weekend and enjoy the Grey Cup.

Mike

GFX Morning Currency Rates
Currencies	7:00am Today's Opening				Yesterday's Opening
USD/CAD		0.9968			0.9965
CAD/USD		1.0032			1.0035
EUR/USD		1.2901			1.2874
EUR/CAD		1.2861			1.2831
STG/CAD		1.5892			1.59
AUD/CAD		1.04			1.0333
CAD/JPY		82.5			82.88
CAD/CHF		0.9366			0.9385
CAD/HKD		7.7536			7.7574
CAD/CNY		6.2468			6.2483
CAD/MXN		13.0758			13.0594
Commodities
Gold		$1,734			$1,730
OIL		$87.18			$87.49
Option Volatility
Canada
O/N		5.09%			5.75%
1 Week		4.96%			4.85%
1 Month		5.50%			5.50%

 

GFX Morning Commentary November 22nd, 2012

Good Morning,          

Today’s expected range for the Canadian Dollar against the US Dollar is .9930-1.0000

Today’s expected range for the Canadian Dollar against the Euro is 1.2820-1.2870

Today’s expected range for the Canadian Dollar against Sterling is  1.5880-1.5940

A very happy Thanksgiving to all our American readers.

The US Dollar is marginally weaker this morning as the Euro jumped to a 2 day high on reports of better than expected Euro-Zone services and manufacturing data and also better than expected Chinese manufacturing data. EURO.USD reached a high of 1.2880 where we are presently trading, Sterling also traded higher as GBP.USD touched 1.5975 but in early North American trading it has given back some gains.

The Canadian Dollar is virtually unchanged from our Toronto close yesterday, I would have thought that the Loonie would have gotten a bit stronger on the positive Chinese manufacturing data but the Loonie is being ignored by currency traders at the moment, it must be because everyone around the world is getting excited by the 100^th Grey Cup in Toronto on Sunday.

With the US markets being closed I do not expect much of a trading day but we do get the release of the Canadian Retail Sales report for September, if that number disappoints then we may see USD.CAD rise dramatically in thin trading conditions, but a more likely scenario is that the number comes in as expected and the Loonie does not move a great deal today.

Have a great day and don’t eat too much turkey.
 

Mike

GFX Morning Currency Rates
Currencies	7:00am Today's Opening				Yesterday's Opening
USD/CAD		0.9965			0.9965
CAD/USD		1.0035			1.0035
EUR/USD		1.2874			1.2804
EUR/CAD		1.2831			1.2761
STG/CAD		1.59			1.587
AUD/CAD		1.0333			1.0332
CAD/JPY		82.88			82.6
CAD/CHF		0.9385			0.9432
CAD/HKD		7.7574			7.7559
CAD/CNY		6.2483			6.2491
CAD/MXN		13.0594			13.06
Commodities
Gold		$1,730			$1,726
OIL		$87.49			$87.50
Option Volatility
Canada
O/N		5.75%			5.96%
1 Week		4.85%			4.85%
1 Month		5.50%			5.56%

 

 

 

 

GFX Morning FX Commentary November 21st, 2012

Good Morning,

Today’s expected range for the Canadian Dollar against the US Dollar is .9935-1.0010

Today’s expected range for the Canadian Dollar against the Euro is 1.2740-1.2800

Today’s expected range for the Canadian Dollar against Sterling is 1.5870-1.5950

The US Dollar is marginally stronger this morning as the Euro traded weaker for most of the overnight session before recovering early this morning. Overnight it was announced that after 11 hours of discussions the EU Finance Ministers could not agree on releasing the next tranche of funds to Greece nor could they agree on giving them more time to pay back what they owe. They have agreed to meet in another week to discuss the situation, not that is what I call quality leadership. There appears to be a real division between the EU and the IMF on what should be done, It will be interesting to see how this gets played out.

Events in the Gaza and Israel continue to escalate rather than slowdown, this morning a bomb blew up on a bus in Tel Aviv injuring 10 people, if this leads to a ground invasion of Gaza I will be very interested to see how it plays out in the new Arab countries, if the come to the aid of the Palestinians this could get very ugly very quickly which would drive the US Dollar higher and equities lower.

The Canadian Dollar is off its highs against the US Dollar as USD.CAD moved a little higher overnight in a very narrow trading range. USD.CAD continues to trade in tight ranges around par but is very susceptible to any weakness in equities or geo-political developments. Up today we do get the release of US Leading Indicators for October and Consumer Sentiment for  November, barring any surprises with these releases we should continue to see USD.CAD trade in a tight range with a bias towards moving higher back towards parity, markets should slow right down this afternoon as the US Bond market closes early ahead of the US Thanksgiving holiday.

Just a reminder that the US wire system is shutdown tomorrow so If you need any US wires sent make sure you get your transactions in early today. To all our American readers may you have a safe and happy holiday.

Have a great day

Mike

GFX Morning Currency Rates
Currencies	7:00am Today's Opening				Yesterday's Opening
USD/CAD		0.9965			0.9955
CAD/USD		1.0035			1.0045
EUR/USD		1.2804			1.2814
EUR/CAD		1.2761			1.2757
STG/CAD		1.587			1.5856
AUD/CAD		1.0332			1.0343
CAD/JPY		82.6			81.83
CAD/CHF		0.9432			0.9412
CAD/HKD		7.7559			7.7853
CAD/CNY		6.2491			6.2621
CAD/MXN		13.06
Commodities
Gold		$1,726			$1,733
OIL		$87.50			$89.11
Option Volatility
Canada
O/N		5.96%			7.31%
1 Week		4.85%			5.01%
1 Month		5.56%			5.64%

 

GFX Morning FX Commentary Nov 20th, 2012

Good Morning,

Today’s expected range for the Canadian Dollar against the US Dollar .9920-1.0000

Today’s expected range for the Canadian Dollar against the Euro is 1.2730-1.2800

Today’s expected range for the Canadian Dollar against Sterling is 1.5840-1.5920

The US Dollar is unchanged from the Toronto close after trading a bit stronger during the night. During the overnight session Moody’s downgraded the sovereign debt of France to Aa1 from Aaa, Euro traded weaker on this announcement but only slightly as this move was not totally unexpected and just catches up to what Standard and Poors did a few weeks back. Also in Europe the EU finance ministers are meeting to discuss the Greek situation and the freeing up of money to the troubled nation. I don’t expect any surprises from this meeting, even if they don’t release the funds today I am sure there will be positive statements regarding the progress Greece is making.

The Canadian Dollar had a narrow trading range last night but continues to hold onto its recent strength, we do get some housing data out of the US and trade data out of Canada today but for the most part I don’t expect these numbers to have much of an impact on today’s trading. With North American Equities pointing slightly higher to start the day  I would not be surprised if USD.CAD fell to trade below the .9950 but I would not look for a huge trading range. Again if I was a US buyer I would be looking to put some forward trades on at these levels, with all the uncertainty in the market it would not take all that much for USD.CAD to jump back above par.

Have a great day

Mike

GFX Morning Currency Rates
Currencies	7:00am Today's Opening				Yesterday's Opening
USD/CAD		0.9962			0.9983
CAD/USD		1.0038			1.0017
EUR/USD		1.2814			1.2774
EUR/CAD		1.2757			1.2754
STG/CAD		1.5856			1.5882
AUD/CAD		1.0343			1.0377
CAD/JPY		81.83			81.02
CAD/CHF		0.9417			0.9444
CAD/HKD		7.7853			7.7431
CAD/CNY		6.2621			6.2407
CAD/MXN		13.11			13.11
Commodities
Gold		$1,783.00			$1,724
OIL		$89.11			$88.00
Option Volatility
Canada
O/N		7.31%			7.38%
1 Week		5.01%			5.29%
1 Month		5.64%			5.88%

GFX Morning FX Commentary Nov 19th, 2012

Good Morning,

Today’s expected range for the Canadian Dollar against the US Dollar is .9960-1.0040

Today’s expected range for the Canadian Dollar against the Euro is 1.2720-1.2800

Today’s expected range for the Canadian Dollar against Sterling is 1.5850-1.5925

The US Dollar is marginally weaker as optimism from Obama’s comments that a budget deal can be reached have pushed the Greenback lower, EURO.USD rose to trade at a  high of 1.2785. There are still many clouds on the horizon not the least of which is the Middle East situation. Talks are under way in Cairo for a cease fire, if they fail and Israel pushes ground troops into the Gaza financial markets will get very nervous about other countries sympathetic to the Palestinians getting involved.

The Canadian Dollar was able to benefit from the higher Oil and Gold prices overnight and started a move back below parity. Given the uncertainty in the marketplace at the moment it might not be a bad idea for US Dollar buyers to put some orders in at .9975 and try and pick up some cheap USD. If the Middle East blows up or the Euro crisis raises its head again USD.CAD could quickly be back up testing 1.0050. With North American markets poised to break out higher this morning I would not be surprised to see USD.CAD test the lower end of our range early on.

Just a quick reminder that Thursday is the US Thanksgiving holiday, we will be open but equity and bond markets will be closed in the States. If you need to send out some USD keep that in mind, markets will wind down Wednesday afternoon.

Have a great week

Mike

GFX Morning Currency Rates
Currencies	7:00am Today's Opening				Yesterday's Opening
USD/CAD		0.9983			1.0019
CAD/USD		1.0017			0.9981
EUR/USD		1.2774			1.2731
EUR/CAD		1.2754			1.2756
STG/CAD		1.5882			1.588
AUD/CAD		1.0377			1.0331
CAD/JPY		81.02			80.78
CAD/CHF		0.9444			0.9439
CAD/HKD		7.7431			7.7164
CAD/CNY		6.2407			6.2207
CAD/MXN		13.11			13.2238
Commodities
Gold		$1,724			$1,709
OIL		$88.00			$85.49
Option Volatility
Canada
O/N		7.38%			5.22%
1 Week		5.29%			5.57%
1 Month		5.88%			5.99%