GFX Morning FX Commentary

Good Morning,

 

Today’s suggested range for the Canadian dollar against the US is 1.1200– 1.1270

Today’s suggested range for the Canadian dollar against the Euro is 1.4190– 1.4290

 Today’s suggested range for the Canadian dollar against Sterling is 1.7960 – 1.8060

 

The US dollar index is mixed from our close in uneventful trading ahead of the two day summit of EU leaders beginning today. I can’t help but wonder if the markets won’t become more cautious and nervous following the deadly attack in our Nation’s Capital. Our thoughts and prayers go out to the family and friends of our fallen soldier.

 

The British Pound was hit following worse than expected retail sales for September falling 0.3% m/m versus a 0.1% drop. It appears the economic slowdown is stretching beyond the Eurozone borders. The Euro gained against Sterling as Eurozone PMI data was more upbeat than anticipated but gains were limited ahead of the EU Summit.

 

The Canadian dollar was more orderly overnight contained to narrow ranges after a volatile session yesterday. The Bank of Canada dropping the neutral language from their monetary policy statement was a big surprise for the market suggesting that the next move in interest rates will be higher. The overall tone from the BOC was more upbeat but the strong gains in the currency were quickly evaporated from the deadly attack in Ottawa.

 

The economic calendar in Canada is empty for the rest of the week so much of the direction will come from the equity and commodity moves. The price of oil is still hovering above the psychological level of $80.00 with any move lower will have a negative effect on the currency. In the U.S. today we have the release of jobless claims ,Markit US Manufacturing PMI and leading indicators. Dow futures are pointing higher by 100 so it already appears the market has put behind the deadly attack of yesterday which will be CAD dollar positive.

 

Have a nice day!

 

 

 

GFX Morning FX Commentary

Good Morning,

 

Today’s suggested range for the Canadian dollar against the US is 1.1200 – 1.1260

Today’s suggested range for the Canadian dollar against the Euro is 1.4220 – 1.4300

 Today’s suggested range for the Canadian dollar against Sterling is 1.7990 – 1.8090

 

The US dollar is mostly firmer due to the weakness in the European single currency. The Euro is under pressure for a second consecutive day as the market is bracing for more stimulus in the form of additional quantitative easing. The other development making the Euro uneasy is rumours that as many as 11 Eurozone banks are set to fail the ECB’s stress tests.

 

The British pound is also weaker as the latest minutes from the Bank of England showed increased risks to the economy brought on by the slumping Eurozone. The reference made by the BOE reduces any possibility of a short term rate hike.

 

The Canadian dollar is holding onto to its short term gains ahead of the Bank of Canada monetary policy statement  today. The central bank is expected to hold  its interest rate at 1% which it has remained at for the past four years. The BOC is likely seen to continue sending a cautious message on the economy given the global slowdown and the impact on exports.

 

The economic releases ahead of the BOC announcement at 10:00am this morning is U.S. consumer price index for September with expectations for a rise of 1.6% y/y down from the previous month of 1.7%. Also due out this morning is CAD retail sales for August last down 0.1% with expectations for a 0.2% gain. The Dow futures are flat with oil edging higher and gold slightly lower on a stronger greenback.

 

Have a great day!

 

GFX Morning Currency Rates
Wednesday October 22, 2014
Currencies	7:00am Today's Opening				Yesterday's Opening
USD/CAD		1.1238			1.1253
CAD/USD		0.8898			0.8886
EUR/USD		1.2694			1.2762
EUR/CAD		1.4267			1.4362
STG/CAD		1.804			1.8171
AUD/CAD		0.9875			0.9906
CAD/JPY		95.18			94.91
CAD/CHF		0.8451			0.84
CAD/HKD		6.8815			6.8705
CAD/CNY		5.4417			5.4393
CAD/MXN		12.0744			12.041
Commodities
Gold		$1,246.00			$1,248.00
OIL		$82.71			$83.19
US DOLLAR INDEX
P.CLOSE		85.33			84.97
OPEN		85.54			85.14
US 10YR YIELD		2.19%			2.20%

GFX Morning FX Commentary

Good Morning,

 

Today’s suggested range for the Canadian dollar against the US is 1.1230 – 1.1280

 Today’s suggested range for the Canadian dollar against the Euro is 1.4320 – 1.4400

 Today’s suggested range for the Canadian dollar against Sterling is 1.8150 – 1.8250

 

The US dollar was mixed overnight as investors are getting conflicting signals from the U.S. Federal Reserve. Last week the stock market rallied strongly when Fed Plosser suggested delaying the end of QE while Fed member Fischer yesterday supported a move to higher interest rates despite recent market turmoil.

 Both the European single currency and the British pound lost some ground from our closing level ahead of the important two day EU summit beginning on Thursday. The Euro was hit hardest as the market speculates further stimulus in the form of  bond purchases are forthcoming.

 The Canadian dollar rallied overnight on better than expected growth data out of China which helped to give commodities a boost translating into gains for the CAD. The CAD strength was widespread gaining against the U.S., Europe and Asia currencies. The economic calendar is sparse today in North America with the lone release being U.S. existing home sales for September. The Dow futures are pointing higher by 85 which is CAD positive.

 

Have a great day!

 

 

GFX Morning Currency Rates
Tuesday October 21st 2014
Currencies	7:00am Today's Opening				Yesterday's Opening
USD/CAD		1.1253			1.1258
CAD/USD		0.8886			0.8883
EUR/USD		1.2762			1.2771
EUR/CAD		1.4362			1.4381
STG/CAD		1.8171			1.8156
AUD/CAD		0.9906			0.9864
CAD/JPY		94.91			95.01
CAD/CHF		0.84			0.8384
CAD/HKD		6.8705			6.8676
CAD/CNY		5.4393			5.4354
CAD/MXN		12.041			12.0347
Commodities
Gold		$1,248.00			$1,242.00
OIL		$83.19			$82.79
US DOLLAR INDEX
P.CLOSE		84.97			85.19
OPEN		85.14			85.13
US 10YR YIELD		2.20%			2.21%

GFX Morning FX Commentary

Good Morning,

 

Today’s suggested range for the Canadian against the US is 1.1225 – 1.1295

Today’s suggested range for the Canadian dollar against the Euro is 1.4340 – 1.4440

 Today’s suggested range for the Canadian dollar against Sterling is 1.8100- 1.8200

 

The mood of the market remains cautious despite a rally in the stock market for two consecutive days. The Japanese Yen weakened for a third day as a media report claims Japan’s pension funds are closer to being able to increase their holdings of foreign stocks and bonds.

The British Pound rallied to a one week high against the greenback following a report that showed U.K. home prices gained for a second month in October helping to push consumer confidence higher. The Euro remains vulnerable albeit holding  to narrow ranges overnight as the market braces for renewed concerns over debt and the periphery countries like Greece being the main culprit. The EU leaders are meeting for a two day summit beginning Thursday to try and calm investor anxiety.

The Canadian dollar has edged slightly higher form our close on Friday along with the other commodity based currencies. The price of oil is steady while gold has edged higher. The main focus for the CAD this week is the Bank of Canada interest rate announcement on Wednesday. The BOC will not move on interest rates and will more than likely keep the same neutral language.

 Today the economic calendar is empty in the U.S. with the only economic release being CAD wholesale trade for August which is of minor importance. The Dow futures are pointing for a drop of 98 at the opening which could weigh on risk sentiment, ultimately putting pressure back on the CAD.

 

Have a great day!

 

GFX Morning Currency Rates
Monday October 20, 2014
Currencies	7:00am Today's Opening				Yesterday's Opening
USD/CAD		1.1258			1.1232
CAD/USD		0.8883			0.8903
EUR/USD		1.2771			1.2811
EUR/CAD		1.4381			1.4394
STG/CAD		1.8156			1.8085
AUD/CAD		0.9864			98.68
CAD/JPY		95.01			94.8
CAD/CHF		0.8384			0.8386
CAD/HKD		6.8676			6.88
CAD/CNY		5.4354			5.4495
CAD/MXN		12.0347			12.0364
Commodities
Gold		$1,242.00			$1,237.00
OIL		$82.79			$84.87
US DOLLAR INDEX
P.CLOSE		85.19			84.95
OPEN		85.13			84.87
US 10YR YIELD		2.21%			2.19%