Good Morning,

Today’s expected range for the Canadian Dollar against the US Dollar is 1.2420-1.2490

Today’s expected range for the Canadian Dollar against the Euro is 1.4080-1.4250

Today’s expected range for the Canadian Dollar against Sterling is 1.9140-1.9210

The US Dollar is stronger this morning with the biggest move coming against the British Pound. In the UK this morning a poorer than expected Retail Sales report put pressure on GBP.USD as the rate fell from 1.5430 to 1.5350. With the recent spate of positive data out of the UK I think this negative report caught the market a little off guard and the move lower for Sterling became a bit bigger than it normally would have been on such a number.

The Euro is a little lower this morning as last minute negotiations with Greece and the EU continue, we should know more about this situation later today.

The Canadian Dollar has rallied overnight and once again the inter-bank rate seems to be stick in this 1.2450-1.2550 trading range, I think this is happening because oil has stabilized into a range as well and that is calming down volatility. If the Loonie is to make a sustained move higher we need to see a clean break of 1.2400 for the Loonie to hold any gains over the medium term, I think the risk of a move to 1.3000 is greater than any move back towards 1.2000 at the moment but as we all know that can change in the blink of an eye.

Up today we get the Canadian Retail Sales report for December and much like the UK earlier this morning a surprise number will move the market. We are expecting an a drop of 0.4% (last month was an increase of 0.2%) which if true is yet another example of the slowdown in the Canadian economy, a negative number for the busy Christmas shopping season I would think will be doubly bad for the Canadian economy. Not sure how we can see a sustained Canadian Dollar rally when we see poor economic results and with a Bank of Canada that will more than likely cut interest rates again soon.

Have a great weekend and stay warm.

Mike

GFX Morning Currency Rates
Currencies	7:00am Today's Opening				Yesterday's Opening			4pm Thursday close
USD/CAD		1.2445			1.2477			1.2494
CAD/USD		0.8035			0.8014			0.8003
EUR/USD		1.1327			1.1393			1.1359
EUR/CAD		1.4098			1.4218			1.4196
STG/CAD		1.9116			1.9286			1.9257
AUD/CAD		0.9755			0.9721			0.9731
CAD/JPY		95.41			95.34			95.19
CAD/CHF		0.7642			0.7586			0.7597
CAD/HKD		6.2108			6.1938			6.185
CAD/CNY		5.023			5.0131			5.0039
CAD/MXN		12.0596			11.9662			12.0461
Commodities
Gold		$1,203			$1,217			$1,217
OIL		$51.60			$50.25			$51.89
US DOLLAR INDEX
OPEN		94.68			94.21			94.5
US 10YR YIELD		2.11%			2.07%			2.11%

 

 

 

GFX Morning Commentary

Good Morning,

Today’s expected range for the Canadian Dollar against the US Dollar is 1.2480-1.2550

Today’s expected range for the Canadian Dollar against the Euro is 1.4220-1.4290

Today’s expected range for the Canadian Dollar against Sterling is 1.9320-1.9390

The US Dollar is firmer this morning as financial markets react to the minutes from the last Federal Reserve meeting, I was a bit premature yesterday when I said we were expecting an interest rate decision from the Fed, in fact the announcement was just the minutes from the last meeting, the next policy meeting of the Fed will be in mid-March. The Greenback jumped higher this morning despite the minutes indicating some of the voting members are now starting to favour a delay in the first interest rate hike we have seen in years. There are definite signs that the US expansion is starting to slow and inflation is starting to drop, it will be very interesting to see what the March announcement will hold.

Euro is weaker this morning as Germany stated that they will not make any concessions to Greece and that they want them to keep all their austerity measures in place. In the UK the Pound is again higher as more positive data continues to come out of the UK economy.

Once again USD.CAD looked like it wanted to make a firm break below the 1.2400 level and once again the rate bounced higher, the price of oil has dropped about two dollars a barrel this morning as the volatility continues to put pressure on the commodity currencies. I would think now that the rate will test 1.2500 level at some point, it may be that we are stuck in this 1.2400-1.2500 range for a little while yet.

Up today we get the US leading indicators for January and the Philadelphia Fed Index for February, markets will be looking to see if the US data continues to soften.

Have a great day

Mike

GFX Morning Currency Rates
Currencies	7:00am Today's Opening				Yesterday's Opening			4pm close Tuesday
USD/CAD		1.2477			1.2443			1.2415
CAD/USD		0.8014			0.8036			0.8036
EUR/USD		1.1393			1.1363			1.1403
EUR/CAD		1.4218			1.4141			1.4159
STG/CAD		1.9286			1.9201			1.9179
AUD/CAD		0.9721			0.9702			0.9712
CAD/JPY		95.34			95.83			95.51
CAD/CHF		0.7586			0.7549			0.7582
CAD/HKD		6.1938						6.2256
CAD/CNY		5.0131			5.0252			5.0345
CAD/MXN		11.9662			12.0434			11.9958
Commodities
Gold		$1,217			$1,205			$1,210
OIL		$50.25			$52.70			$51.70
US DOLLAR INDEX
OPEN		94.21			94.33			94.19
US 10YR YIELD		2.07%			2.15%			2.08%

 

 

 

 

 

GFX Morning FX Commentary

Good Morning,

Today’s expected range for the Canadian Dollar against the US Dollar is 1.2380-1.2480

Today’s expected range for the  Canadian Dollar against the Euro is 1.4140-1.4240

Today’s expected range for the Canadian Dollar against Sterling is 1.9190-1.9290

The US Dollar is mixed this morning as the market gets lined up for the US Federal Reserve announcement this afternoon. The Dollar is weaker against the Pound as the UK Employment rate fell to a six year low at 5.7% and wages rose more than expected, once again we see the UK data going in the opposite direction of Europe and the Pound getting some benefit. The Euro is slightly weaker this morning as markets are still awaiting word on a Greek/EU deal to provide much needed financing by the end of the  month, I am sure these negotiations will go down to the wire as they always seem to do.

The big news today will be centered around the US Federal Reserve decision on interest rates, there is no chance of any change to policy today and as I mentioned yesterday the markets will be looking for any change to the timing of the first increase in interest rates. Right now they are set to increase anywhere from June to September, if the recent spat of poor economic data out of the US and a global slowdown cause them to push back the timing of the increase we should see the US Dollar weaken, if they are still on target for this year then I think it will be US Dollar positive.

Once again the Canadian Dollar could not hold onto its gains from yesterday and the USD.CAD snapped back higher last night, the recent trading pattern continues to hold in place and will do so until we see what the Fed does today.   

In addition to the Fed announcement we get some secondary US data and also the Canadian Wholesale Trade numbers for December, we should have a fairly active day with lots of volatility especially after the Fed announcement, make sure you get your orders in early.

Mike

 

 

 

  

GFX Morning Currency Rates
Currencies	7:00am Today's Opening				Yesterday's Opening			4pm close Tuesday
USD/CAD		1.2443			1.2366			1.2372
CAD/USD		0.8036			0.8087			0.8082
EUR/USD		1.1363			1.1435			1.1412
EUR/CAD		1.4141			1.4144			1.4129
STG/CAD		1.9201			1.9042			1.9003
AUD/CAD		0.9702			0.967			0.9631
CAD/JPY		95.83			95.95			96.31
CAD/CHF		0.7549			0.7515			0.7562
CAD/HKD		7.7381			6.2482			6.2446
CAD/CNY		5.0252			5.0564			5.0544
CAD/MXN		12.0434			12.0046			12.0712
Commodities
Gold		$1,205			$1,223			$1,207
OIL		$52.70			$53.28			$53.05
US DOLLAR INDEX
OPEN		94.33			93.94			94.03
US 10YR YIELD		2.15%			2.05%			2.13%