GFX Morning Commentary April 30th, 2013

Good Morning,

Today's expected range for the Canadian Dollar against the US Dollar is 1.0080-1.0160

Today's expected range for the Canadian Dollar against the Euro is 1.3210-1.3300

Today's expected range for the Canadian Dollar against Sterling is1.5640-1.5720

The US Dollar is marginally stronger this morning as further poor data out of Europe have again indicated the common market is having a tough time pulling out of recession which in turn looks like it will force the ECB to cut interest rates later this week. I was sent an article from the Financial Times (Ireland: Bleak Houses if you want to Google it) this morning by a good friend in London that shows the Troika (EU, IMF and the ECB) as part of their loan package are forcing the Irish Government to follow up with their commercial banks to start foreclosing on any properties in Ireland that are in arrears. This program has the ability to put thousands of families out on the street and surely cause massive social unrest in Ireland and eventually throughout the rest of Europe, the lack of leadership in Europe continues to weigh on this crisis and I just don’t see any resolve to the situation in the near future.

The Canadian Dollar continues to slowly gain some strength in overnight markets as USD.CAD dropped a little lower last night. The Loonie continues to be quite resilient but again, with so much uncertainty in global financial markets it makes me wonder just how strong the Loonie can get, if I was a US Dollar buyer I would be looking at doing some forward contracts at these levels.

Up today to close out the month we have some secondary data out of the US and the Canadian GDP report for February, we are expecting a monthly growth rate of 0.2% which equates to a year-over-year growth rate of 1.3%. If the number comes in worse than expectation then we will see USD.CAD jump higher, barring any surprises we should see the Loonie continue to strengthen.

Have a great day

Mike

GFX Morning Currency Rates
Currencies	7:00am Today's Opening				Yesterday's Opening
USD/CAD		1.0111			1.0144
CAD/USD		0.989			0.9858
EUR/USD		1.3072			1.308
EUR/CAD		1.3221			1.327
STG/CAD		1.5685			1.5747
AUD/CAD		1.046			1.0483
CAD/JPY		96.4			96.5
CAD/CHF		0.9254			0.9257
CAD/HKD		7.6543			7.6297
CAD/CNY		6.0951			6.0258
CAD/MXN		12.0702			11.9462
Commodities
Gold		$1,472.00			$1,470.00
OIL		$94.39			$93.40
US DOLLAR INDEX
P.CLOSE		82.16			82.57
OPEN		82.26			82.25

 

GFX Morning Commentary April 29th, 2013

Good Morning,

Today's expected range for the Canadian Dollar against the US Dollar is 1.0100-1.0180

Today's expected range for the Canadian Dollar against the Euro is 1.3250-1.3330

Today's expected range for the Canadian Dollar against Sterling is 1.5710-1.5800

The US Dollar is marginally weaker this morning as the Euro has advanced on the announcement that a  new government has been formed it Italy. In Rome a collation government has been formed between Enrico Letta and Berlusconi which has pledged to pull back from some of the austerity measures that the previous government put in place. It should be interesting to see how Italy's budget deficit does this year, if it balloons investors will get very nervous.

This week should see lots of action in Europe with both the European Central Bank and the US Federal Reserve announcing on interest rates. The US should stay the course but investors will be looking for any signs of when the stimulus program will be ended, in Europe there is a building expectation that the ECB will cut rates to try and get the economy going.

The Canadian Dollar continues to benefit from the weaker US Dollar as USD.CAD dropped during the overnight session, it is getting to the point now where US Dollar buyers need to take notice and start looking at forward contracts, given the uncertainty in the global economy we could easily see USD.CAD trade higher very quickly over the next few days.

We should have a busy week of economic news, highlight of course by the US Federal Reserve and the ECB announcements, but we also have  a slew of other economic activity to be reported ending up with the US Employment report on Friday. Up today we get US Personal Income and spending and from everything I read bit numbers could disappoint just like the US GDP report disappointed on Friday. If I am correct then look for USD.CAD to slip a bit more today and test 1.0150.

Have a great week

Mike

GFX Morning Currency Rates
Currencies	7:00am Today's Opening				Yesterday's Opening
USD/CAD		1.0144			1.0195
CAD/USD		0.9858			0.9809
EUR/USD		1.308			1.3001
EUR/CAD		1.327			1.3257
STG/CAD		1.5747			1.5762
AUD/CAD		1.0483			1.0482
CAD/JPY		96.5			96.82
CAD/CHF		0.9257			0.9256
CAD/HKD		7.6297			7.5937
CAD/CNY		6.0258			6.0442
CAD/MXN		11.9462			11.9363
Commodities
Gold		$1,470.00			$1,467.00
OIL		$93.40			$93.00
US DOLLAR INDEX
P.CLOSE		82.57			82.9
OPEN		82.25			82.78

 

GFX Morning FX Commentary April 26th, 2013

Good Morning,

Today's expected range for the Canadian Dollar against the US Dollar is 1.0160-1.0240

Today's expected range for the Canadian Dollar against the Euro is 1.3240-1.3320

Today's expected range for the Canadian Dollar against Sterling is 1.5755-1.5830

The US Dollar is marginally weaker this morning in overnight trading that was once again dominated by the Japanese Yen. In Tokyo the Bank of Japan did not indicate the need for any further stimulus programs so USD.JPY dropped lower in volatile conditions. In Europe, the Euro traded in a narrow range with the EURO.USD rising back to trade at 1.3040 and GBP.USD traded to a high of 1.5469, since I have been in the office both currencies have given back some of the gains

The Canadian Dollar continues to slowly recover as USD.CAD set a new weekly low, this is the 2nd consecutive night that the Loonie has been able to trade stronger against the USD, we will watch to see if it can extend the gains or is this just a temporary pullback. Up today, USD.CAD trading will be dominated by the US 1st Quarter GDP report where we are expecting a year over year growth rate of 3.1% for the US economy, if the number is softer than expected USD.CAD can fall below 1.0175 very quickly, if it shows stronger than expected growth we could easily see USD.CAD back up at 1.0250, either way we could see some enhanced volatility around the release.

Have a great weekend

Mike

GFX Morning Currency Rates
Currencies	7:00am Today's Opening				Yesterday's Opening
USD/CAD		1.0195			1.0228
CAD/USD		0.9809			0.9777
EUR/USD		1.3001			1.3066
EUR/CAD		1.3257			1.3367
STG/CAD		1.5762			1.5789
AUD/CAD		1.0482			1.0556
CAD/JPY		96.82			96.81
CAD/CHF		0.9256			0.922
CAD/HKD		7.5937			7.5688
CAD/CNY		6.0442			6.03
CAD/MXN		11.9363			11.8847
Commodities
Gold		$1,467.00			$1,448.00
OIL		$93.00			$91.84
US DOLLAR INDEX
P.CLOSE		82.9			83.06
OPEN		82.78			82.61

 

GFX Mornign FX Commentary April 25th, 2013

Good Morning,

 

Today's expected range for the Canadian Dollar against the US Dollar is 1.0190-1.0270

Today's expected range for the Canadian Dollar against the Euro is 1.3350-1.3430

Today's expected range for the Canadian Dollar against Sterling is 1.5760-1.5850

The US Dollar is marginally weaker this morning after strong growth results out of the UK have pushed the Greenback lower.

In the UK, the Bureau of Statistics announced that the economy grew by 0.3% last quarter, this was after economists were calling for a drop of 0.3% which would have put the UK into their 3rd Recession since 2008 (good to see that UK economists are just as good as Canadian economists at predicting economic statistics). On this report Sterling jumped the highest of any currency last night with GBP.USD trading as high as 1.5450 (almost 200 points higher than our Toronto close yesterday), let's hope this report can start a positive string of good news for the UK.

The Canadian dollar was able to pick up some strength last night on the back of the weaker US Dollar, USD.CAD did set a new low for the week but that is not saying a lot, we are still looking at narrow trading ranges. With no economic releases out today I would not expect that we will see much of a trading range, USD.CAD may have some momentum to trade towards 1.0200 this morning.

Have a great day

Mike

GFX Morning Currency Rates
Currencies	7:00am Today's Opening				Yesterday's Opening
USD/CAD		1.0228			1.0255
CAD/USD		0.9777			0.9751
EUR/USD		1.3066			1.3012
EUR/CAD		1.3367			1.3346
STG/CAD		1.5789			1.5675
AUD/CAD		1.0556			1.0542
CAD/JPY		96.81			97.11
CAD/CHF		0.922			0.9218
CAD/HKD		7.5688			7.5501
CAD/CNY		6.03			6.0215
CAD/MXN		11.8847			11.9438
Commodities
Gold		$1,448.00			$1,420.00
OIL		$91.84			$89.81
US DOLLAR INDEX
P.CLOSE		83.06			83.15
OPEN		82.61			83.07

GFX Morning FX Commentary April 24th, 2013

Good Morning,

Today's expected range for the Canadian Dollar against the US Dollar is 1.0220-1.0300

Today's expected range for the Canadian Dollar against the Euro is 1.3320-1.3400

Today's expected range for the Canadian Dollar against Sterling is 1.5630-1.5720

The US Dollar is marginally weaker this morning in very quiet overnight markets. Both the Euro and Sterling have shrugged off poor economic numbers to trade higher against the US Dollar. In the UK it was a poorer than expected Retail Sales report that initially pushed Sterling lower, in Germany it was a poor Business Confidence survey that initially hit the Euro, as the morning wore on both EURO.USD and GBP.USD moved a little higher. These poor numbers out of Europe are starting to raise the expectation that the ECB will cut rates next week and it is unlikely that the Bank of England will cut their stimulus program anytime soon, I still look for both of these currencies to trade weaker.

Not much to say about the Loonie, it is still mired in recent ranges and even the stronger than expected Retail Sales number for February could not move USD.CAD. With only US Durable Goods on tap this morning there is very little that I see in the next day or two that will get the Loonie moving, with all the uncertainty around the global economy I still favour a gradual move higher for USD.CAD but it may take a while.

Have a great day

Mike

GFX Morning Currency Rates
Currencies	7:00am Today's Opening				Yesterday's Opening
USD/CAD		1.0255			1.0277
CAD/USD		0.9751			0.973
EUR/USD		1.3012			1.2984
EUR/CAD		1.3346			1.3347
STG/CAD		1.5675			1.5648
AUD/CAD		1.0542			1.0249
CAD/JPY		97.11			95.84
CAD/CHF		0.9218			0.9148
CAD/HKD		7.5501			7.5325
CAD/CNY		6.0215			6.0095
CAD/MXN		11.9438			11.9851
Commodities
Gold		$1,420.00			$1,413.00
OIL		$89.81			$88.45
US DOLLAR INDEX
P.CLOSE		83.15			82.78
OPEN		83.07			83.1