GFX Morning FX Commentary April 15th, 2013

Good Morning,

Today's expected range for the Canadian Dollar against the US Dollar is 1.0180-1.0250

Today's expected range for the Canadian Dollar against the Euro is 1.3325-1.3400

Today's expected range for the Canadian Dollar against Sterling is 1.5640-1.5720

The US Dollar is higher in active trading markets this morning as poor Chinese growth numbers have left markets very nervous. In Europe the Euro is lower on the Chinese data but also on comments from George Soros that Germany will be in recession by year end and also from Moody's stating that fundamental issues remain unresolved in the Cyprus bailout package, EURO.USD fell to trade at 1.3060 on these events.

On Friday it was reported that Cyprus was selling off its gold reserves which caused a run on the price of gold with the price breaking below $1500 an ounce. With the worrying growth data out of China this morning the sell-off has continued with gold trading lower near $1400 an ounce, the run on gold has also dragged down other commodities with the price of a barrel of oil falling to $89.00, down over $2 a barrel.

The Canadian Dollar and other commodity currencies are all lower as you would expect this morning, with worrying data out of China and a collapse of the commodity prices driving them lower. USD.CAD has broken back above the 1.0200 level and if the current drop in the price of commodities continues I would expect that USD.CAD will push to 1.0250 today

Up today we get the release of some secondary data out of the US but I think it will be ignored by currency trades, instead they will focus on the commodities markets to see if the drop in gold stabilizes. I think this fast a move for the Loonie is tough to sustain in the short-term so US Dollar sellers need to be ready with their orders between 1.0200 and 1.0250 to take advantage of this type of move, we have seen just how fast USD.CAD can drop when conditions change.

Have a great week

Mike

GFX Morning Currency Rates
Currencies	7:00am Today's Opening				Yesterday's Opening
USD/CAD		1.0214			1.0117
CAD/USD		0.9714			0.9884
EUR/USD		1.3076			1.3065
EUR/CAD		1.3357			1.3221
STG/CAD		1.5656			1.5557
AUD/CAD		1.063			1.0653
CAD/JPY		95.75			98.05
CAD/CHF		0.9093			0.9201
CAD/HKD		7.5788			7.65
CAD/CNY		6.0561			6.1186
CAD/MXN		11.899			11.9368
Commodities
Gold		$1,407.00			$1,547.00
OIL		$88.69			$92.43
US DOLLAR INDEX
P.CLOSE		82.22			82.35
OPEN		82.39			82.44