GFX Morning Commentary July 31st 2013

Good Morning,

Today’s expected range for the Canadian Dollar against the US Dollar is 1.0250-1.0350

Today’s expected range for the Canadian Dollar against the Euro is 1.03620-1.3700

Today’s expected range for the Canadian Dollar against Sterling is 1.5620-1.5700

The US Dollar is unchanged against the Euro and Sterling and a bit weaker against the Yen and some other currencies, currency markets are settling in ahead if the US Federal Reserve interest rate announcement this afternoon. With no chance of a change in interest rates financial markets will be watching to see if Bernanke gives any hint of an announcement of the tapering of the Fed’s stimulus program. Given that just two weeks ago he said there would be no change to the program until the economic statistics warrant a change, I think there is little chance that he will announce any changes to the program but if he does then you will see the US Dollar jump much higher.

In Europe this morning the economy received some important data, in Europe the economy created jobs for the first time since 2011 but this was offset by a decline in Retail Sales in Germany. The EU economy created 24K new jobs last month, I hope this is the start of a new trend as unemployment still tops 19% and youth unemployment is still off the charts in the region.

The Canadian Dollar has traded a bit weaker over the course of the last 24 hours as the Canadian market gets set up for the Bernanke announcement later today. I think the breakup of the Potash Cartel has weighed a bit on the Loonie, I have heard reports that the drop in Potash prices could knock as much as 0.5% off the Canadian GDP but that will need to be played out.

Ahead of the Bernanke announcement today we do get the Canadian GDP report for May and the US 1^st Quarter GDP report. In the US we are expecting a growth rate of 1.0% and in Canada we are looking for a monthly growth rate for 0.3% so we may see some fireworks early this morning surrounding these releases. I think volatility will start to ramp up now as we have more Central Bank data ahead of the US Employment report on Friday, make sure you have your orders in ahead of today’s announcement to take advantage of the volatility

 

Have a great day

Mike

GFX Morning Currency Rates
Currencies	7:00am Today's Opening				Yesterday's Opening
USD/CAD		1.0293			1.0273
CAD/USD		0.9715			0.9734
EUR/USD		1.3254			1.3269
EUR/CAD		1.3642			1.3629
STG/CAD		1.5644			1.573
AUD/CAD		0.9298			0.9312
CAD/JPY		94.89			95.59
CAD/CHF		0.902			0.9052
CAD/HKD		7.5133			7.5488
CAD/CNY		5.9515			5.6993
CAD/MXN		5.5915
Commodities
Gold		$1,330.00			$1,322.42
OIL		$103.25			$103.81
US DOLLAR INDEX
P.CLOSE		81.93			81.8
OPEN		81.93			81.85
US 10YR YIELD		2.60%			2.60%

 

 

 

GFX Morning FX Commentary July 30th, 2013

Good Morning,

Today’s expected range for the Canadian Dollar against the US Dollar is 1.0240-1.0310

Today’s expected range for the Canadian Dollar against the Euro is 1.3610-1.3680

Today’s expected range for the Canadian Dollar against Sterling is 1.5710-1.5780

The US Dollar is mixed this morning as it is marginally weaker against the Euro and stronger against the Pound. In the UK, Sterling is again lower as investors are betting that the Bank of England this week will favour increasing their stimulus program when they announce their interest rate policy, more so than the European Central bank will. This is a big week for Central Banks with the US Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank and the Bank of England all reporting their latest interest rate policies so we should see some fireworks in the currency markets later this week.

In other currency action over night the Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Stevens stated that the Central  Bank still has more room to lower interest rates as inflation is not a concern at the moment. AUD.USD was the big mover overnight as it dropped over 130 points to trade near .9050. USD.JPY also dropped quite a bit as Industrial Production in Japan fell the most it has in two years, so not all is good news coming out of Japan.

Nothing to report on the Canadian Dollar, the recent trading range has narrowed to trade between 1.0250 and 1.0300 and can’t seem to break either side, I think we will get some movement later this week with the Central Bank announcements and the US Employment report but for now the market will remain quiet.

Up today we do get some secondary data out of the US economy including Consumer Confidence for July but unless the numbers are dramatically different from expectation I don’t think they will move the market. Look for USD.CAD to continue to range trade today.

Have a great day

Mike

GFX Morning Currency Rates
Currencies	7:00am Today's Opening				Yesterday's Opening
USD/CAD		1.0273			1.0269
CAD/USD		0.9734			0.9738
EUR/USD		1.3269			1.329
EUR/CAD		1.3629			1.3648
STG/CAD		1.573			1.5802
AUD/CAD		0.9317			0.9496
CAD/JPY		95.39			95.15
CAD/CHF		0.9051			0.9028
CAD/HKD		7.5488			7.5545
CAD/CNY		5.9693			5.9714
Commodities
Gold		$1,322.42			$1,326.78
OIL		$103.81			$104.40
US DOLLAR INDEX
P.CLOSE		81.8			81.77
OPEN		81.85			81.63
US 10YR YIELD		2.59%			2.56%

 

 

 

GFX Morning FX Commentary July 29th, 2013

Good Morning,

Today’s expected range for the Canadian Dollar against the US Dollar is 1.0245-1.0320

Today’s expected range for the Canadian Dollar against the Euro is 1.3620-1.3700

Today’s expected range for the Canadian Dollar against Sterling is 1.5770-1.5850

The US Dollar is for the most part unchanged from Friday’s close as the overnight currency markets were very quiet. USD.JPY is a bit lower this morning as the Governor of the Bank of Japan indicated that it will take some time for the Japanese economy to reach its 2% inflation goal, there was some optimism last week that inflation was returning to the Japanese economy but this statement seems to put a damper on this view.

The Canadian Dollar had a very quiet night and is right where we left it on Friday, nothing new to report on the Loonie, we will continue to trade around the 1.0300 level in very uninspiring trading. I expect volatility to pick up later in the week as we start to get Central Banks reporting on interest rates and we get the US employment report on Friday.

There is some M&A news to report that Hudson’s Bay is buying Sak’s in the US for a total price of 2.9B USD. We can never be sure of the FX implication of any M&A deal but if HBC has to buy some USD in the coming days we may see a temporary spike in USD.CAD at some point.

Have a great week

Mike

GFX Morning Currency Rates
Monday July 29th, 2013
Currencies	7:00am Today's Opening				Yesterday's Opening
USD/CAD		1.0269			1.0272
CAD/USD		0.9738			0.9735
EUR/USD		1.329			1.3225
EUR/CAD		1.3648			1.3639
STG/CAD		1.5802			15,410
AUD/CAD		0.9496			0.9522
CAD/JPY		95.15			95.9
CAD/CHF		0.9028			0.9035
CAD/HKD		7.5545			7.5514
CAD/CNY		5.9714
					5.968
Commodities
Gold		$1,326.78			$1,330.00
OIL		$104.40			$104.78
US DOLLAR INDEX
P.CLOSE		81.77			81.83
OPEN		81.63			81.76
US 10YR YIELD		2.56%			2.57%

 

 

 

 

GFX Morning FX Commentary July 13th, 2013

Good Morning,

Today’s expected range for the Canadian Dollar against the US Dollar is 1.0235-1.0310

Today’s expected range for the Canadian Dollar against the Euro is 1.3620-1.3700

Today’s expected range for the Canadian Dollar against Sterling is 1.5810-1.5900

The US Dollar is for the most part unchanged this morning with the lone exception being USD.JPY. Japan for the past decade has been suffering from deflation and a lack of growth in the economy, in response to this the Bank of Japan under the influence of the new Japanese Government introduced a massive stimulus package to stimulate both growth and inflation. The news out of Japan this morning appears to show that the new program is have a positive effect as Japanese inflation numbers showed the biggest increase in consumer prices since 2008, the trick now for the BOJ will be to maintain inflation at 2% over the long-term while encouraging growth, it will be interesting to see if they can do that. USD.JPY fell to trade at 98.50 during the overnight session, it was the biggest mover of the evening, both Euro and Sterling are basically where we left them last night.

The Canadian Dollar had a very quiet night as did most currency pairs, it continues to play out as we thought settling in to trade back and forth around the 1.0300 level, it will most likely stay like this until we get the Federal Reserve commenting on their stimulus program again.  We Should have a quiet day today with the exception being the US Consumer Confidence report due out at 09:55, it should not move the market all that much but if the number is below expectation you may see the Loonie rally a bit.

Have a great weekend

Mike

GFX Morning Currency Rates
Currencies	7:00am Today's Opening				Yesterday's Opening
USD/CAD		1.0272			1.0298
CAD/USD		0.9735			0.9711
EUR/USD		1.3225			1.3194
EUR/CAD		1.3639			1.3586
STG/CAD		15,410			1.5734
AUD/CAD		0.9522			0.9443
CAD/JPY		95.9			96.67
CAD/CHF		0.9035			0.9091
CAD/HKD		7.5514			7.531
CAD/CNY					5.9568
		5.968
Commodities
Gold		$1,330.00			$1,312.36
OIL		$104.78			$104.59
US DOLLAR INDEX
P.CLOSE		81.83			82.08
OPEN		81.76			82.33
US 10YR YIELD		2.57%			2.60%

 

GFX Morning FX Commentary July 25th, 2013

Good Morning,

Today’s expected range for the Canadian Dollar against the US Dollar is 1.0260-1.0340

Today’s expected range for the Canadian Dollar against the Euro is 1.3560-1.3625

Today’s expected range for the Canadian Dollar against Sterling is 1.5720-1.5800

The US Dollar is marginally stronger this morning, more so against Sterling than the Euro. In the UK the 2^nd quarter GDP report showed an increase in growth of 0.6% from the 1^st quarter which was in-line with economist expectations but the Pound lost about 100 points as investors still feel that there will not be any change to the Bank of England’s stimulus program as significant growth is still not present in the economy. GBP.USD fell to trade at 1.5280, I think you will see the Pounds trade weaker over the next few weeks.

USD.CAD had the pullback that we were looking for yesterday afternoon as it moved back above the 1.0300 level, I think what you will see now is the currency pair just range trade around the 1.0300 level for a while as we await the next piece of significant information to get the currency market moving again.

Nothing much on the economic calendar today so I am not expecting an active day, US Dollar buyers as I said yesterday should be looking at a forward program at these levels and short-term US Dollar sellers should be looking at levels above 1.0300 to sell some USD.

Have a great day

Mike

GFX Morning Currency Rates
Currencies	7:00am Today's Opening				Yesterday's Opening
USD/CAD		1.0298			1.0278
CAD/USD		0.9711			0.973
EUR/USD		1.3194			1.3236
EUR/CAD		1.3586			1.3607
STG/CAD		1.5734			1.578
AUD/CAD		0.9443			0.9482
CAD/JPY		96.67			97.23
CAD/CHF		0.9091			0.9095
CAD/HKD		7.531			7.5457
CAD/CNY		5.9568			5.9709
Commodities
Gold		$1,312.36			$1,340.23
OIL		$104.59			$107.23
US DOLLAR INDEX
P.CLOSE		82.08			82.08
OPEN		82.33			82.13
US 10YR YIELD		2.60%			2.54%