GFX Morning FX Commentary July 13th, 2013

Good Morning,

Today’s expected range for the Canadian Dollar against the US Dollar is 1.0380-1.0450

Today’s expected range for the Canadian Dollar against the Euro is 1.3620-1.3700

Today’s expected range for the Canadian Dollar against Sterling is 1.5820-1.5900

The US Dollar is marginally stronger this morning in very quiet overnight markets. Yesterday saw US Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke testify before congress and basically reiterate what he has said the week earlier, rates will stay low and stimulus will stay in place until the economic data warrants a change in policy. I think investors still expect that the FED will begin reducing stimulus at some point this year but Bernanke is not hinting when that will be. Bernanke testifies before the Senate today, I would not expect any surprises so I am not expecting much market reaction to this testimony.

The Canadian Dollar is slightly weaker this morning as it settles in after the Bank of Canada announcement yesterday. Basically the Bank kept the substance and tone the same as last month’s announcement but I did get sense that they provided a little more guidance as to when interest rates will start to rise. For now the Canadian Dollar should continue to trade around the 1.0400 level but I do favour a slow move towards 1.0450.

Up today we get the release of the US Leading Indicators and Philadelphia Fed reports so we could see some enhanced volatility around 10:00 am this morning, we also get the Canadian Wholesale trade report at 08:30 so if we get some poor numbers out of Canada we may see USD.CAD get that push towards 1.0450 this morning.

Have a great day

Mike

GFX Morning Currency Rates
Currencies	7:00am Today's Opening				Yesterday's Opening
USD/CAD		1.0416			1.0388
CAD/USD					0.9626
EUR/USD		1.31			1.3145
EUR/CAD		1.3645			1.3658
STG/CAD		1.5845			1.5658
AUD/CAD		0.9551			0.9566
CAD/JPY		96.06			95.97
CAD/CHF		0.9058			0.9042
CAD/HKD		7.445			7.4658
CAD/CNY		5.8943			5.9045
Commodities
Gold		$1,281.55			$1,286.38
OIL		$106.29			$105.43
US DOLLAR INDEX
P.CLOSE		82.78			82.62
OPEN		82.95			82.7
US 10YR YIELD		2.47%			2.55%