GFX Morning Commentary July 3rd, 2013

Good Morning,

Today’s expected range for the Canadian Dollar against the US Dollar is 1.0490-1.0570

Today’s expected range for the Canadian Dollar against the Euro is 1.3640-1.3720

Today’s expected range for the Canadian Dollar against Sterling is 1.6060-1.6140

The US Dollar is mixed this morning as it is stronger against the Euro and weaker against Sterling. In Europe the Euro is lower as the Finance and Foreign Minister of Portugal have both resigned in the last week over budget issues. It is clear that Portugal will not be able to hit their austerity targets and now the Portuguese Government must come up with some answers or resign, borrowing costs in Portugal have risen dramatically and have had a follow on effect in Italy and other countries.

In the UK, the Services industry  report unexpectedly showed a much improving economy, the report showed it accelerated to its fastest pace in over two years. GBP.USD jumped to trade from 1.5120 to 1.5260 and GBP.CAD jumped to trade at 1.6080. Boy is that Mark Carney doing a great job so far!!!

The Canadian Dollar traded in a narrow range but did get a bit stronger during the night, USD.CAD did drop off from its highs yesterday during the late afternoon and that continued during the night . Canada may have benefitted somewhat from the jump in the price of oil to over $100 a barrel, this move is on the back of another flare-up in Mid-East politic this time being the possible outbreak of civil war in Egypt, if the price stays this high then it should be a contributing factor in the Canadian dollar recovering a bit of strength. I caution US Dollar buyers not to expect the Loonie to stage a dramatic recovery if oil continues jumps higher, there are too many other factors at play for the Loonie to solely react to any change in oil prices.

Up today we do get some Secondary US data and Canadian Merchandise Trade data so we  may get some volatility this morning, after that the currency markets should quiet down as the US shuts down early for the 4^th of July holiday. A quick reminder that the US payment system will be closed tomorrow so if you need any wires sent out make sure you get your trades in today. Tomorrow will not be a total loss as we do get the release of the ECB and Bank of England policy announcements, with the US markets closed we could have some crazy moves when these announcements are made.

Have a great day

Mike

GFX Morning Currency Rates
Currencies	7:00am Today's Opening				Yesterday's Opening
USD/CAD		1.0537			1.0522
CAD/USD		0.949			0.9444
EUR/USD		1.2962			1.3027
EUR/CAD		1.366			1.3709
STG/CAD		1.6076			1.5991
AUD/CAD		0.9574			0.9664
CAD/JPY		94.53			94.72
CAD/CHF		0.9005			0.9001
CAD/HKD		7.334			7.3671
CAD/CNY		5.8189			5.8255
CAD/MXN					12.28
Commodities
Gold		$1,248			$1,258.00
OIL		$100.90			$98.09
US DOLLAR INDEX
P.CLOSE					83.43
OPEN		83.65			83.19