GFX Morning Commentary October 22nd, 2013

Good Morning,

Today’s expected range for the Canadian Dollar against the US Dollar is 1.0265-1.0340

Today’s expected range for the Canadian Dollar against the Euro is 1.4055-1.4125

Today’s expected range for the Canadian Dollar against Sterling is 1.6580-1.6650

The US Dollar is virtually unchanged this morning as the currency markets have pretty much ground to a halt ahead of the US Delayed Jobs report this morning. I have not seen the FX markets as quiet as they are in many years, it will eventually change but for now currency markets are resetting as they try and figure out what the US Federal Reserve will do in the coming months.

For the US Employment report I have seen expectations that between 160K and 180K new jobs were created in September with no change to the 7.3% unemployment rate. Given that this report has been delayed for a few weeks I don’t think a strong report will have much impact on the market but if it is a poor number then we should see the currency markets reacting with stocks rising and the US Dollar trading weaker on the expectation that the US Federal Reserve will continue with the full stimulus program through the end of this year.

The Canadian Dollar is stuck near this 1.0300 level and in fact yesterday’s 13 point range was the slowest day in the market since October 2004, it has been a long time since I have seen markets this quiet. Hopefully we will see some reaction to the US Jobs report this morning but I am not holding out a lot of hope for a big range, we also get the Canadian Retail Sales report for August where we are expecting an increase of 0.3% so there are a few events that could bring us some volatility. I still favour a move higher for USD.CAD so US Dollar buyers need to be careful to protect themselves.

Have a great day

Mike

GFX Morning Currency Rates
Currencies	7:00am Today's Opening				Yesterday's Opening
USD/CAD		1.029			1.0293
CAD/USD		0.9718			0.9715
EUR/USD		1.367			1.3676
EUR/CAD		1.4072			1.4076
STG/CAD		1.6599			1.6639
AUD/CAD		0.9952			0.9949
CAD/JPY		95.57			95.28
CAD/CHF		0.8775			0.8772
CAD/HKD		7.5326			7.5287
CAD/CNY		5.9204			5.9194
CAD/MXN		12.5793			12.5272
Commodities
Gold		$1,313.53			$1,315.00
OIL		$98.94			$99.96
US DOLLAR INDEX
P.CLOSE					79.69
OPEN		79.8			79.76
US 10YR YIELD		2.60%			2.59%