GFX Morning FX Commentary October 24th, 2013

Good Morning,

Today's expected range for the Canadian Dollar against the US Dollar is 1.0360-1.0440

Today's expected range for the Canadian Dollar against the Euro is 1.4320-1.4400

Today's expected range for the Canadian Dollar against Sterling is 1.6800-1.6870

The US Dollar is weaker this morning, but looks to be rebounding as the North American markets start to open. In Europe the Euro hit a 2-year high against the Greenback but quickly gave back some gains as the Euro region Industrial Production report came in weaker than expected. Since the budget crisis has ended the US Dollar has traded much weaker on the expectation that the US Federal Reserve will need to keep the stimulus program in place longer than expected to repair the damage done to the economy.

The Canadian Dollar continues to hover near the 1.0400 level, I am not surprised that we are here but I am a little surprised at how fast we got to this level. This latest move is in reaction to the Bank of Canada removing the language about possible interest rate hikes from the policy statement and also the downgrade of projected economic growth from 1.8% to 1.6%, basically the Canadian economy is at a standstill and that is starting to be reflected in the Loonie. When you look at Loonie, it is still doing relatively well against the US Dollar but it is getting creamed against the Euro and Sterling, the strength in those two currencies is just pushing the Loonie lower and lower. I look for this trend to continue over the next few weeks.

With no economic releases of any consequences today look for the Loonie to remain under pressure, US Dollar buyers need to look at 1.0375/1.0350 levels as an area to leave your orders, your risk is that we move directly to 1.0500 without any pullback, if we do get a minor pullback to day you need to be ready.

Have a great day

Mike

GFX Morning Currency Rates
Currencies	7:00am Today's Opening				Yesterday's Opening
USD/CAD		1.0398			1.0319
CAD/USD		0.9617			0.969
EUR/USD		1.3793			1.3743
EUR/CAD		1.4344			1.4184
STG/CAD		1.6821			1.6644
AUD/CAD		1.0005			0.9929
CAD/JPY		93.59			94.26
CAD/CHF		0.8568			0.8672
CAD/HKD		7.4506			7.5078
CAD/CNY		5.8477			5.8943
CAD/MXN		12.5407			12.5588
Commodities
Gold		$1,338.00			$1,331.00
OIL		$97.17			$96.88
US DOLLAR INDEX
P.CLOSE		79.34			79.3
OPEN		79.26			79.43
US 10YR YIELD		2.50%			2.51%