GFX Morning FX Commentary

Good Morning,

Today's expected range for the Canadian Dollar against the US Dollar is 1.0890-1.0940

Today's expected range for the Canadian Dollar against the Euro is 1.4600-1.4650

Today's expected range for the Canadian Dollar against Sterling is 1.8410-1.8460

The US Dollar is stronger again this morning as the overnight markets react to the very strong US GDP report yesterday. On an annualized basis ‎the growth rate jumped to 4.0% which was a lot higher than the expected growth rate of 3.0%. The Federal Reserve announcement actually took a bit of the shine off the dollar in the afternoon as it was slightly negative on inflation and the labour market. EURO.USD is now poised to break below 1.3400 as it also traded lower overnight on weaker German Employment data.‎

It was announced last night that Argentina is in a technical default due as a result of a US court ordered payment to some bond holders stemming from the default of 2001. The bondholders have not yet demanded payment of the missed payment from Argentina but the risk of default could push that country to the brink of bankruptcy once again. In the past year the Argentinian Peso has dropped 25% against the US Dollar and the fear is that inflation will run upwards of 40%. As of yet the financial markets are ignoring this but if it reaches crisis proportion it may have some spill-over effects

The Canadian Dollar had a rough day yesterday as it lost a lot of ground to the Greenback after the GDP report,. For US Dollar buyers you need to be ready to buy some forward contracts at current levels, the pressure is still building for a strong US dollar and there is no reason right now why we could not see USD.CAD at 1.10000 in the next few weeks.

Up today the volatility should continue when we get the release of the Canadian GDP report for May, we are expecting an annualized rate of 2.3% which is slightly higher than the 2.1% rate we saw in April. If the rate is widely different than expectation we will see some more volatility.

Have a great day

Mike

GFX Morning Currency Rates
Currencies	7:00am Today's Opening				Yesterday's Opening
USD/CAD		1.0913			1.0866
CAD/USD		0.9163			0.8203
EUR/USD		1.3385			1.34
EUR/CAD		1.461			1.4564
STG/CAD		1.8429			1.8408
AUD/CAD		1.0147			1.0177
CAD/JPY		94.21			94.08
CAD/CHF		0.8326			0.8345
CAD/HKD		7.0793			7.1104
CAD/CNY		5.6547			5.677
CAD/MXN		12.1115			12.0492
Commodities
Gold		$1,296.00			$1,299.00
OIL		$99.55			$101.32
US DOLLAR INDEX
P.CLOSE		81.42			81.22
OPEN		81.48			81.3
US 10YR YIELD		2.55%			2.47%

 

 

 

 

GFX Morning FX Commentary

Good Morning,

Today's expected range for the Canadian Dollar against the US Dollar is 1.0840-1.0900

Today's expected range for the Canadian Dollar against the Euro is 1.4550-1.4620

Today's expected range for the Canadian Dollar against Sterling is 1.8360-1.8430

The US Dollar is marginally stronger this morning as the financial markets get ready for the release of the US Federal Reserve interest rate announcement later this afternoon. In Germany the Euro flirted with breaking below the 1.3400 level against the Greenback and in the UK the Pound hit a 6-week low as investors squared up currency positions before the Fed announcement. The US Dollar gained a lot of strength yesterday from a very positive Consumer Confidence report, if Consumer sentiment is on the rise that can only mean more spending which will be positive for the US economy.

As mentioned the markets will await the news from the US Federal Reserve later today, there is no chance of a change in interest rates today  and they should continue their pace of reducing the stimulus by $10 Billion a month. Investors will be looking for any statement concerning timing of the next interest rate hike. Right now the expectation for the first interest rate increase is the first quarter of 2015, If the Fed indicates that they are bringing forward their timeline the US dollar will soar, if they indicate that the state of the ‎economy does not warrant a rate hike any sooner then the Greenback will be hit.

The Canadian Dollar lost a little strength ‎yesterday and it was not able to recover during the overnight session, with the strong US Dollar  it is starting to look like the Loonie is running out of steam and we could continue to see USD.CAD push higher.

In addition to the Federal Reserve we also get the US GDP report for 2^nd Quarter. We are expecting a growth rate of 3.0% (annualized rate)  which is much higher than the previous report of -2.9%. If we see a very strong report investors will push USD.CAD towards 1.0900 as  traders will link a strong GDP report with an early interest rate hike by the Fed. Either way it should be another busy day so get your orders in early. I will send out a currency alert shortly after the Fed announcement this afternoon.

Have a great day

Mike

GFX Morning Currency Rates
Currencies	7:00am Today's Opening				Yesterday's Opening
USD/CAD		1.0866			1.0806
CAD/USD		0.8203			0.9254
EUR/USD		1.34			1.3435
EUR/CAD		1.4564			1.4522
STG/CAD		1.8408			1.8325
AUD/CAD		1.0177			1.0159
CAD/JPY		94.08			94.32
CAD/CHF		0.8345			0.8365
CAD/HKD		7.1104			7.1508
CAD/CNY		5.677			5.7173
CAD/MXN		12.0492			13.0425
Commodities
Gold		$1,299.00			$1,307.00
OIL		$101.32			$101.58
US DOLLAR INDEX
P.CLOSE		81.22			81.03
OPEN		81.3			81.05
US 10YR YIELD		2.47%			2.47%

 

 

 

 

 

GFX Morning Commentary

Good Morning,

Today's expected range for the Canadian Dollar against the US Dollar is 1.0790-1.0840

Today's expected range for the Canadian Dollar against the Euro is 1.4510-1.4560

Today's expected range for the Canadian Dollar against Sterling is 1.8320-1.8370

The US Dollar is marginally stronger this morning as the US Dollar index hit a six-week high on the expectation that the US economy is recovering and the US Federal Reserve will continue to cut back their stimulus program. The US GDP numbers tomorrow are expected to be strong so that is giving the Greenback a bit of an early boost

The big mover overnight was the New Zealand Dollar as that countries significant dairy industry indicated milk exports are falling. It is funny to see that the Reserve Bank of New Zealand is still talking about increasing interest rates while its close counterpart Australia is talking about cutting interest rates, it could be possible that we see Aussie and Kiwi trade at parity with each other, this would be a first for the FX markets if it comes to pass.

The Canadian Dollar is unchanged this morning as it settles into it new levels and with nothing on the Canadian calendar today I don’t expect much of a breakout either side, the Canadian market should remain quiet ahead of tomorrow’s US GDP report and the US Federal Reserve announcement.

Up today we do get US Consumer Confidence so we could see a little movement if the release surprises but overall I don’t think it will have too much of an effect.

Have a great day

Mike

GFX Morning Currency Rates
Currencies	7:00am Today's Opening				Yesterday's Opening
USD/CAD		1.0806			1.0803
CAD/USD		0.9254			0.9237
EUR/USD		1.3435			1.3438
EUR/CAD		1.4522			1.452
STG/CAD		1.8325			1.8349
AUD/CAD		1.0159			1.016
CAD/JPY		94.32			94.24
CAD/CHF		0.8365			0.8364
CAD/HKD		7.1508			7.1516
CAD/CNY		5.7173			5.7377
CAD/MXN		13.0425			12.978
Commodities
Gold		$1,307.00			$1,305.00
OIL		$101.58			$101.43
US DOLLAR INDEX
P.CLOSE		81.03			81.03
OPEN		81.05			81.01
US 10YR YIELD		2.47%			2.49%

 

 

 

GFX Morning Commentary

Good Morning,

Today's expected range for the Canadian Dollar against the US Dollar is 1.0790-1.0840

Today's expected range for the Canadian Dollar against the Euro is 1.4520-1.4570

Today's expected range for the Canadian Dollar against Sterling is 1.8370-1.8420

The US Dollar is ‎marginally weaker in quiet overnight trading conditions as the markets get ready for the US Federal Reserve interest rate announcement later this week. The Pound is at a one-month low against the Greenback as investors are questioning the meteoric rise of Sterling over the last year and worrying that perhaps the UK economy is not as strong as first thought, Sterling may continue to trade a little weaker over the short-term.

The Canadian Dollar finally had some movement on Friday as it traded weaker throughout the day, it was pretty much a non-event overnight so USD.CAD continues to look vulnerable at the moment, I would think that we will stay at current levels until at least the Federal Reserve meeting on Wednesday, the Canadian Dollar has been quite resilient for some time so we may yet see a pullback lower but I still favour a move higher for USD.CAD. US Dollar buyers need to exercise caution as the rate may start to move away from them again.

Key events this week include US Consumer Confidence on Tuesday, the Federal Reserve on Wednesday, US Employment report on Friday and the  Canadian GDP data on Thursday, we could have a busy week.

Have a great week

Mike

GFX Morning Currency Rates
Currencies	7:00am Today's Opening				Yesterday's Opening
USD/CAD		1.0803			1.0756
CAD/USD		0.9237			0.9297
EUR/USD		1.3438			1.3448
EUR/CAD		1.452			1.4467
STG/CAD		1.8349			1.822
AUD/CAD		1.016			1.0116
CAD/JPY		94.24			94.68
CAD/CHF		0.8364			0.8397
CAD/HKD		7.1516			7.1836
CAD/CNY		5.7377			5.7529
CAD/MXN		12.978			12.0729
Commodities
Gold		$1,305.00			$1,296.00
OIL		$101.43			$102.00
US DOLLAR INDEX
P.CLOSE		81.03			80.87
OPEN		81.01			80.94
US 10YR YIELD		2.49%			2.51%

 

 

 

 

GFX Morning Commentary

Good Morning,

Today’s expected range for the Canadian Dollar against the US Dollar is 1.0740-1.0790

Today’s expected range for the Canadian Dollar against the Euro is 1.4460-1.4510

Today’s expected range for the Canadian Dollar against Sterling is 1.8250-1.8300

The US Dollar is marginally stronger this morning as the German IFO business survey released this morning showed the third straight decline in the German business climate. Not a good sign if the ECB is cutting interest rates to help stimulate growth.

The Canadian Dollar is marginally weaker this morning as USD.CAD moved away from the lows of recent days and moved a little higher overnight. Still nothing to get too excited about as the trading ranges are very small.

Up today we get US Durable Goods and the markets are expecting a strong showing which would be a reversal of what we have seen in the past few months. If we get a strong number then we could see USD.CAD move towards the  top end of our recent range, if it comes in as expected then I think USD.CAD will have a quiet day.

Have a great weekend

Mike

GFX Morning Currency Rates
Currencies	7:00am Today's Opening				Yesterday's Opening
USD/CAD		1.0756			1.0722
CAD/USD		0.9297			0.9327
EUR/USD		1.3448			1.3472
EUR/CAD		1.4467			1.4447
STG/CAD		1.822			1.8245
AUD/CAD		1.0116			1.0126
CAD/JPY		94.68			94.74
CAD/CHF		0.8397			0.8407
CAD/HKD		7.1836			7.206
CAD/CNY		5.7529			5.7729
CAD/MXN		12.0729			12.0807
Commodities
Gold		$1,296.00			$1,300.00
OIL		$102.00			$102.76
US DOLLAR INDEX
P.CLOSE		80.87			80.81
OPEN		80.94			80.79
US 10YR YIELD		2.51%			2.48%