GFX Morning FX Commentary

Good Morning,

Today's expected range for the Canadian Dollar against the US Dollar is 1.0840-1.0900

Today's expected range for the Canadian Dollar against the Euro is 1.4550-1.4620

Today's expected range for the Canadian Dollar against Sterling is 1.8360-1.8430

The US Dollar is marginally stronger this morning as the financial markets get ready for the release of the US Federal Reserve interest rate announcement later this afternoon. In Germany the Euro flirted with breaking below the 1.3400 level against the Greenback and in the UK the Pound hit a 6-week low as investors squared up currency positions before the Fed announcement. The US Dollar gained a lot of strength yesterday from a very positive Consumer Confidence report, if Consumer sentiment is on the rise that can only mean more spending which will be positive for the US economy.

As mentioned the markets will await the news from the US Federal Reserve later today, there is no chance of a change in interest rates today  and they should continue their pace of reducing the stimulus by $10 Billion a month. Investors will be looking for any statement concerning timing of the next interest rate hike. Right now the expectation for the first interest rate increase is the first quarter of 2015, If the Fed indicates that they are bringing forward their timeline the US dollar will soar, if they indicate that the state of the ‎economy does not warrant a rate hike any sooner then the Greenback will be hit.

The Canadian Dollar lost a little strength ‎yesterday and it was not able to recover during the overnight session, with the strong US Dollar  it is starting to look like the Loonie is running out of steam and we could continue to see USD.CAD push higher.

In addition to the Federal Reserve we also get the US GDP report for 2^nd Quarter. We are expecting a growth rate of 3.0% (annualized rate)  which is much higher than the previous report of -2.9%. If we see a very strong report investors will push USD.CAD towards 1.0900 as  traders will link a strong GDP report with an early interest rate hike by the Fed. Either way it should be another busy day so get your orders in early. I will send out a currency alert shortly after the Fed announcement this afternoon.

Have a great day

Mike

GFX Morning Currency Rates
Currencies	7:00am Today's Opening				Yesterday's Opening
USD/CAD		1.0866			1.0806
CAD/USD		0.8203			0.9254
EUR/USD		1.34			1.3435
EUR/CAD		1.4564			1.4522
STG/CAD		1.8408			1.8325
AUD/CAD		1.0177			1.0159
CAD/JPY		94.08			94.32
CAD/CHF		0.8345			0.8365
CAD/HKD		7.1104			7.1508
CAD/CNY		5.677			5.7173
CAD/MXN		12.0492			13.0425
Commodities
Gold		$1,299.00			$1,307.00
OIL		$101.32			$101.58
US DOLLAR INDEX
P.CLOSE		81.22			81.03
OPEN		81.3			81.05
US 10YR YIELD		2.47%			2.47%