GFX Morning FX Commentary

Good Morning,

Today’s expected range for the Canadian Dollar against the US Dollar is 1.2625-1.2700

Today’s expected range for the Canadian Dollar against the Euro is 1.4330-1.4400

Today’s expected range for the Canadian Dollar against Sterling is 1.9050-1.9130

The US Dollar this morning is pretty much weaker against everything but the Canadian Dollar as the financial markets await the latest GDP numbers from both the US and Canada. The US Dollar continues to garner strength from the expectation that the US Federal Reserve Bank will increase interest rates this summer.

The Canadian Dollar had a rough day yesterday against just about everything, USD.CAD is closing in on 1.2700 a new multi-year high, EURO.CAD has jumped to 1.4300 and GBP.CAD is well above 1.90 (it looks like we are heading back to 2.00), there appears to be no respite for the Canadian Dollar. It is not often in 35 years that I have seen a currency lose so much value with at least a pause. The National Post said yesterday that over the last 2 years the Canadian Dollar has declined over 19% , I am not sure that this is a coincidence but it ties in with the time Stephen Poloz took over at the Bank of Canada. Poloz came from the EDC so perhaps he wanted to weaken the Loonie to help exporters, I can be pretty sure he did not forecast a plunge in the price of oil.

As mentioned today we have both US and Canadian GDP, in the US 4^th quarter (annualized) GDP is expected to have grown by 3.0% that is down from the previous quarter of 5.0%, in Canada we are expecting a monthly (November) growth rate of 0.1% down from 0.3% in October. If the US number is above expectation and the Canadian number below expectation the Canadian dollar will get smashed.

Have a great weekend

Mike

GFX Morning Currency Rates
Currencies	7:00am Today's Opening				Yesterday's Opening			4pm close Thursday
USD/CAD	1.2655				1.2547				1.2547
CAD/USD	0.7902				0.797				0.7970
EUR/USD	1.1354				1.1323				1.1315
EUR/CAD	1.4377				1.4209				1.4269
STG/CAD	1.9101				1.8987				1.8997
AUD/CAD	0.9829				0.9769				0.9796
CAD/JPY	92.94				93.91				93.7900
CAD/CHF	0.7287				0.7302				0.7322
CAD/HKD	6.1051				6.1568				6.1266
CAD/CNY	4.9392				4.9665				4.9429
CAD/MXN	11.7643				11.8229				11.7637
Commodities
Gold	$1,263.00				$1,266.00				$1,255.00
OIL	$45.10				$44.28				$44.60
US DOLLAR INDEX
OPEN	94.52				94.53				94.73
US 10YR YIELD	1.71%				1.73%				1.76%