GFX Morning FX Commentary

Good Morning,

Today’s expected range for the Canadian Dollar against the US Dollar is 1.0990-1.1050

Today’s expected range for the Canadian Dollar against the Euro is 1.5230-1.5290

Today’s expected range for the Canadian Dollar against Sterling  is 1.8500-1.8560

The US Dollar is weaker this morning against the Euro and Sterling as better than expected manufacturing and services sector reports have pushed the Euro higher against the Greenback. This report shows that the Euro-Zone economy might not be as bad as pundits have been arguing, if we get a string of these strong reports I think we can look to see the Euro continue to push higher.

In other currency news overnight the Australian Dollar gave up almost a 100 points to the US Dollar as their inflation rate came in lower than expected, it is once again apparent that world inflation rates are dramatically affecting the currency markets. I will continue to watch inflation reports to get a gauge of what the currency markets are going to do.

The Canadian Dollar continues to trade in very narrow overnight markets and is still looking for its next direction, the Loonie is a little weaker against the US as the reports yesterday’s of potential large M&A activity seemed to have weakened the Loonie off a little. I still look for an eventual short-term test of 1.1050 but so far any movement has been hard to come by.

Up today we get Canadian Retail Sales report for the month of February, we are expecting a jump of 0.4% which is a little better than the January report of 0.3%, I don’t think that the report will have much effect on the market but if it comes in a lot lower than expectation we may have the push that gives USD.CAD the push to go higher.

Have a great day

Mike

GFX Morning Currency Rates
Currencies	7:00am Today's Opening				Yesterday's Opening
USD/CAD		1.1033			1.1016
CAD/USD		0.9064			0.9079
EUR/USD		1.3836			1.3818
EUR/CAD		1.5268			1.5224
STG/CAD		1.8534			1.8538
AUD/CAD		1.0247			1.031
CAD/JPY		92.63			93.08
CAD/CHF		0.7988			0.8018
CAD/HKD		7.0216			7.0319
CAD/CNY		5.6529			5.6597
CAD/MXN		11.8423			11.8561
Commodities
Gold		$1,286.00			$1,292.00
OIL		$101.36			$104.10
US DOLLAR INDEX
P.CLOSE		79.9			80.03
OPEN		79.74			79.83
US 10YR YIELD		2.70%			2.71%

 

 

 

 

GFX Morning Commentary

Good Morning,

Today's expected range for the Canadian Dollar against the US Dollar is 1.0980-1.1040

Today's expected range for the Canadian Dollar against the Euro is 1.5200-1.5260

Today's expected range for the Canadian Dollar against Sterling is 1.8510-1.8570

The US Dollar is marginally weaker this morning as markets come back from the Easter holiday, in Europe Sterling once again led the charge and has hit a 7-month high against the Euro, clearly financial markets are betting that the UK economy will outperform the European economy. Sterling did get a bit of a bounce against the US Dollar this morning on rumours of a mega-merger between two pharmaceutical giants Pfizer and AstraZeneca, if such a deal was to be consummated then it would be  in the neighborhood of 60 Billion Pounds. In China, the Yuan  is at its lowest level in 14 months as the Chinese Government keep pushing down the range the Yuan trades in to help boost its export market.

The Canadian Dollar remains on the sidelines against the US Dollar as it had a 15 point trading range overnight, the Loonie continues to stay close to this 1.1000 level as it awaits the next piece of news to get it moving again.

Up today we get some secondary US data and the Canadian Wholesale trade data, I am not sure that any of these will really get the currency market going but if we get a surprise trade number you never know. I still favour a move towards 1.1050 in the short-term but at the present pace it might take all week.

Have a great day.

Mike

GFX Morning Currency Rates
Currencies	7:00am Today's Opening				Yesterday's Opening
USD/CAD		1.1016			1.1013
CAD/USD		0.9079			0.908
EUR/USD		1.3818			1.3815
EUR/CAD		1.5224			1.5212
STG/CAD		1.8538			1.8501
AUD/CAD		1.031			1.0271
CAD/JPY		93.08			93.14
CAD/CHF		0.8018			0.8014
CAD/HKD		7.0319			7.0198
CAD/CNY		5.6597			5.6561
CAD/MXN		11.8561
Commodities
Gold		$1,292.00			$1,282.70
OIL		$104.10			$104.10
US DOLLAR INDEX
P.CLOSE		80.03			80.03
OPEN		79.83
US 10YR YIELD		2.71%			2.72%

 

 

 

 

 

GFX Morning FX Commentary

Good Morning,

Today’s expected range for the Canadian Dollar against the US Dollar is 1.0980-1.1040

Today’s expected range for the Canadian Dollar against the Euro is 1.5200-1.5270

Today’s expected range for the Canadian Dollar against Sterling  is 1.8490-1.8550

The US Dollar is marginally weaker this morning against the Euro and Sterling and stronger against Japan in very quiet overseas markets, most markets were closed for the Easter Monday holiday so volumes are very light. The Greenback jumped the most against the Yen as the Japanese trade deficit came in much larger than expected, this number should provide the opportunity for more stimulus for the economy going forward.

The Canadian Dollar is unchanged from our Thursday close against the US Dollar as the Loonie trading was very light due to the Easter holiday, the Loonie continues to settle in close to the 1.1000 level as it awaits its next breakout. Up today we do get some US data with Leading Indicators report due out later this morning, given the quiet market conditions we may get a little enhanced volatility but for the most part I think today’s trading should be a non-event.

For the week I still favour USD.CAD to break  a bit higher and we may yet see a test of 1.1050 at some point, for US Dollar buyers I still favour leaving your orders around the 1.0980 level and wait and see if we get a bit of a pullback, they should be limited in scope and you need to be ready to catch any sudden drops in the rate.

Have a great week

Mike

GFX Morning Currency Rates
Currencies	7:00am Today's Opening				Yesterday's Opening
USD/CAD		1.1013			1.1011
CAD/USD					0.9082
EUR/USD		1.3815			1.385
EUR/CAD		1.6798			1.5259
STG/CAD		1.8501			1.8517
AUD/CAD		1.0271			1.0289
CAD/JPY		93.14			92.68
CAD/CHF		0.8014			0.7975
CAD/HKD		7.0198			7.0363
CAD/CNY		5.6561			5.6462
CAD/MXN		11.85			11.8701
Commodities
Gold		$1,287.70			$1,299.00
OIL		104.1			$104.00
US DOLLAR INDEX
P.CLOSE		79.85			79.82
OPEN		79.94			79.62
US 10YR YIELD		2.71%			2.63%

 

 

 

 

 

GFX Morning Commentary

Good Morning,

Today’s expected range for the Canadian Dollar against the US Dollar is 1.0980-1.1040

Today’s expected range for the Canadian Dollar against the Euro is 1.5240-1.5300

Today’s expected range for the Canadian Dollar against Sterling is 1.8500-1.8560

The US Dollar is once again mixed this morning as it is weaker against the Euro and Sterling but stronger against the Yen. Sterling continues to drag the Euro higher on its strong economic performance and the expectation of more stimulus in Japan continues to push the Yen lower.

The Canadian Dollar is a little weaker against the US as the overseas markets react to the Bank of Canada statement from yesterday and the indications that the BOC still prefers a weaker currency. Ranges will continue to be muted but overall we could see a gradual rise in USD.CAD

Up today, trading will be dominated by the Canadian Inflation report and as we have seen lately inflation around the world is taking on added importance as fears of deflation are starting to spread. We are expecting a year over year inflation rate of  1.4% up from 1.1% last time and a  month over month inflation rate of  0.3% down from 0.7% last time. This is well below the Bank of Canada’s target rate of 2% so a very low number will be negative for the Loonie and will help push USD.CAD higher. When you look at inflation growing at 1.4% and as reported yesterday the economy growing at 2.5%, when you factor in inflation into the growth rate you have to say that the Canadian economy is pretty stagnant, with that in place I think low interest rates are with us for some time yet.

Just a quick reminder that our office will be closed tomorrow but the US currency markets are open so make sure you get your orders in early today.

Have a great Easter weekend

Mike

GFX Morning Currency Rates
Thursday April 17, 2014
Currencies	7:00am Today's Opening				Yesterday's Opening
USD/CAD		1.1011			1.0994
CAD/USD		0.9082			0.9096
EUR/USD		1.385			1.3836
EUR/CAD		1.5259			1.5216
STG/CAD		1.8517			1.8461
AUD/CAD		1.0289			1.0294
CAD/JPY		92.68			92.94
CAD/CHF		0.7975			0.7994
CAD/HKD		7.0363			7.0467
CAD/CNY		5.6462			5.6632
CAD/MXN		11.8701			11.8815
Commodities
Gold		$1,299.00			$1,302.00
OIL		$104.00			$104.81
US DOLLAR INDEX
P.CLOSE		79.82			79.79
OPEN		79.62			79.71
US 10YR YIELD		2.63%			2.64%

 

GFX Morning Commentary

Good Morning,

Today’s expected range for the Canadian Dollar against the US Dollar is 1.0950-1.1050

Today’s expected range for the Canadian Dollar against the Euro is 1.5180-1.5270

Today’s expected range for the Canadian Dollar against Sterling is 1.8420-1.8500

The US Dollar is marginally weaker against the Euro and Sterling  but is stronger against the Yen this morning. In Europe the Greenback traded a little weaker on the strong UK Employment report, and in Asia the Dollar was stronger as the Chinese posted slightly better than expected growth numbers and there were rumblings that the Bank of Japan is going to  increase their stimulus package to try and get inflation back to their 2% target. Currency markets will remain volatile in the weeks ahead as tensions continue to rise in Ukraine, the fear is that this contagion will spread to other countries that share borders with Russia.

The Canadian Dollar is right where we left it last night and is now ready for the Bank of Canada interest rate announcement and the Bank’s Monetary Policy quarterly report later this morning. There is no chance of any changes to the interest rate policy but it will be interesting to see the bank’s statement, given that Governor Poloz put his foot in his mouth last month in Halifax which caused a big drop in the Dollar the markets will be a bit nervous as to what they are going to say about the economy and possible future interest rate hikes. I will pay close attention to their inflation forecast as that particular factor seems to be gaining more prominence on the world stage. I will send out a currency alert shortly after the announcement with the market reaction.

Have a great day

Mike

GFX Morning Currency Rates
Currencies	7:00am Today's Opening				Yesterday's Opening
USD/CAD		1.0994			1.0993
CAD/USD		0.9096			0.9097
EUR/USD		1.3836			1.3797
EUR/CAD		1.5216			1.5169
STG/CAD		1.8461			1.8381
AUD/CAD		1.0294			1.0324
CAD/JPY		92.94			92.61
CAD/CHF		0.7994			0.8012
CAD/HKD		7.0467			7.0482
CAD/CNY		5.6632			5.656
CAD/MXN		11.8815			11.8729
Commodities
Gold		$1,302.00			$1,303.00
OIL		$104.81			$103.10
US DOLLAR INDEX
P.CLOSE		79.79			79.74
OPEN		79.71			79.87
US 10YR YIELD		2.64%			2.65%