GFX Morning Commentary

Good Morning,

Today’s expected range for the Canadian Dollar against the US Dollar is 1.0980-1.1040

Today’s expected range for the Canadian Dollar against the Euro is 1.5240-1.5300

Today’s expected range for the Canadian Dollar against Sterling is 1.8500-1.8560

The US Dollar is once again mixed this morning as it is weaker against the Euro and Sterling but stronger against the Yen. Sterling continues to drag the Euro higher on its strong economic performance and the expectation of more stimulus in Japan continues to push the Yen lower.

The Canadian Dollar is a little weaker against the US as the overseas markets react to the Bank of Canada statement from yesterday and the indications that the BOC still prefers a weaker currency. Ranges will continue to be muted but overall we could see a gradual rise in USD.CAD

Up today, trading will be dominated by the Canadian Inflation report and as we have seen lately inflation around the world is taking on added importance as fears of deflation are starting to spread. We are expecting a year over year inflation rate of  1.4% up from 1.1% last time and a  month over month inflation rate of  0.3% down from 0.7% last time. This is well below the Bank of Canada’s target rate of 2% so a very low number will be negative for the Loonie and will help push USD.CAD higher. When you look at inflation growing at 1.4% and as reported yesterday the economy growing at 2.5%, when you factor in inflation into the growth rate you have to say that the Canadian economy is pretty stagnant, with that in place I think low interest rates are with us for some time yet.

Just a quick reminder that our office will be closed tomorrow but the US currency markets are open so make sure you get your orders in early today.

Have a great Easter weekend

Mike

GFX Morning Currency Rates
Thursday April 17, 2014
Currencies	7:00am Today's Opening				Yesterday's Opening
USD/CAD		1.1011			1.0994
CAD/USD		0.9082			0.9096
EUR/USD		1.385			1.3836
EUR/CAD		1.5259			1.5216
STG/CAD		1.8517			1.8461
AUD/CAD		1.0289			1.0294
CAD/JPY		92.68			92.94
CAD/CHF		0.7975			0.7994
CAD/HKD		7.0363			7.0467
CAD/CNY		5.6462			5.6632
CAD/MXN		11.8701			11.8815
Commodities
Gold		$1,299.00			$1,302.00
OIL		$104.00			$104.81
US DOLLAR INDEX
P.CLOSE		79.82			79.79
OPEN		79.62			79.71
US 10YR YIELD		2.63%			2.64%