GFX Morning Commentary

Good Morning,

My apologies for the lack of commentary yesterday, the email Web site we use was not able to process any emails due to server issues. I always post the email to our blog site so if you find that you don't get it one morning just bookmark the Web address www.gfxpartners.blogspot.com and you can find it there.

Today's expected range for the Canadian Dollar against the US Dollar is 1.0960-1.1020

Today's expected range for the Canadian Dollar against the Euro is 1.5200-1.5260

Today's expected range for the Canadian Dollar against Sterling is 1.8440-1.8500

The US Dollar is marginally weaker this morning as once again strong numbers out of the UK have pushed the Greenback lower. In the UK 1st quarter GDP came in slightly lower than expected at 0.8% but it is still a strong report, year over year the growth rate jumped to 3.1% which is the highest number since 2007. GBP.USD initially jumped higher on the report but has since given up those gains as the number did not manage to hit expectation. Sterling looks set to still trade with the most momentum of the major currencies.

The Canadian Dollar is stronger this morning and had one of the largest trading ranges of any currency overnight as it broke out of its recent trading range. Given the lack of volatility in the other currencies there does not appear to be any macro reason why the Canadian Dollar should have jumped higher overnight, it looks to me like one of the big money centre banks probably had a large order to buy some Canadian Dollars and that is what pushed USD.CAD lower. Given that our ranges have been very muted over the last few weeks US Dollar buyers may want to consider taking advantage of this drop and pick up some US Dollars. With the strength of the Loonie against the US Dollar last night both the Euro and Sterling are cheaper this morning, buyers of those currencies should be looking at these levels as a good opportunity, if USD.CAD moves back higher in the next couple of days then this opportunity will be missed.

Up today we do get some secondary data including US Consumer Confidence but again I am not looking for any shocking surprises that will move the market, tomorrow will provide much more activity as we get the US and Canadian GDP reports.

Have a great day

Mike

GFX Morning Currency Rates
Currencies	7:00am Today's Opening				Yesterday's Opening
USD/CAD		1.0973			1.102
CAD/USD		0.9113			0.9074
EUR/USD		1.3863			1.3869
EUR/CAD		1.521			1.5288
STG/CAD		1.844			1.8569
AUD/CAD		1.0167			1.023
CAD/JPY		93.6			92.79
CAD/CHF		0.8816			0.7962
CAD/HKD		7.0616			7.0294
CAD/CNY		5.7004			5.6685
CAD/MXN		11.957			11.901
Commodities
Gold		$1,290.00			$1,301.00
OIL		$101.26			$101.32
US DOLLAR INDEX
P.CLOSE		79.71			79.76
OPEN		79.63			79.58
US 10YR YIELD		2.72%			2.68%