GFX Morning FX Commentary

Good Morning,

Today's expected range for the Canadian Dollar against the US Dollar is 1.0930-1.1000

Today's expected range for the Canadian Dollar against the Euro is 1.5170-1.5240

Today's expected range for the Canadian Dollar against Sterling 1.8430-1.8500

My apologies for the lack of commentary over the past few days, the email Web site we use was not able to process any emails due to server issues. I always post the email to our blog site so if you find that you don't get it one morning just bookmark the Web address www.gfxpartners.blogspot.com and you can always find it there.

The US Dollar is marginally weaker again this morning as another strong report out of the UK helped push Sterling higher. This morning it was a Consumer Confidence report that produced the highest level of confidence in over 8 years for the UK economy, global investors are certainly convincing themselves that the Bank of England will have to raise interest rates a lot sooner than any other major economy and at the same time they are expecting the European Central Bank to cut interest rates to stem deflation. Clearly the UK economy is racing ahead the rest of Europe and Sterling should continue to benefit.

The Euro was a bit stronger against the Greenback as the Euro-Zone inflation report came in at 0.7% which was a little less than expectation but more importantly the prior month was not adjusted, markets will now wait and see what Draghi’s does with these numbers at the next meeting of the ECB but clearly deflation is a rising concern in Europe.

The Canadian Dollar had a quiet night but so far has been able to hold onto the strength it picked up on Tuesday night as it traded in a narrow band for much of the night. We get a sales of important data to end the month including the Canadian GDP report for March where we are expecting a 0.2% inflation rate in March which would put us at 2.5% on a year-over-year inflation rate. The Canadian number will most likely be overshadowed by the release of the US GDP report but if we see a stronger than expected inflation rate then you should see the Loonie jump higher and USD.CAD drop.

As mentioned today we get the US GDP report and the announcement from the US Federal Reserve on interest rates. For the Q1 GDP report we are expecting a growth rate of 1.3% annualized growth rate(down from 2.6% in Q4) which is probably a bit low for the US economy, they are blaming the low number on the cold winter. On the Fed side of things we are not expecting any changes to the tapering policy and it really should be more of a stay the course announcement, if they were too surprise the market with a change in policy then look for the markets to get quite volatile.

With all the different announcements today make sure you get your orders in early, we are bound to have some volatility

Have a great day

Mike

GFX Morning Currency Rates
Currencies	7:00am Today's Opening				Yesterday's Opening
USD/CAD		1.0963			1.0973
CAD/USD		0.9121			0.9113
EUR/USD		1.3829			1.3863
EUR/CAD		1.5264			1.521
STG/CAD		1.8439			1.844
AUD/CAD		1.0156			1.0167
CAD/JPY		93.53			93.6
CAD/CHF		0.8043			0.8016
CAD/HKD		7.0655			7.0616
CAD/CNY		5.707			5.7004
CAD/MXN		11.9666			11.957
Commodities
Gold		$1,292.00			$1,290.00
OIL		$100.49			$101.26
US DOLLAR INDEX
P.CLOSE		79.81			79.71
OPEN		79.74			79.63
US 10YR YIELD		2.71%			2.72%