GFX Morning FX commentary

Good Morning,

Today’s expected range for the Canadian Dollar against the US Dollar is 1.0975-1.1075

Today’s expected range for the Canadian Dollar against the Euro is 1.5070-1.5170

Today’s expected range for the Canadian Dollar against Sterling is 1.8150-11.8250

The US Dollar is marginally stronger this morning as the financial markets get ready for the US employment report at 08:30. Yesterday saw the Euro move around quite a bit as ECB Governor Draghi went on to say at his press conference that they stand ready with conventional tools (interest rate cuts and bond purchases) to stimulate the economy if needed, the Canadian Dollar was a big benefactor of this as EURO.CAD fell to trade near 1.5100, a few weeks ago it was at 1.5600.

This morning the market is expecting around 200K new US jobs to have been created in March, I think we may see a slightly better number which would be US Dollar positive as the Eastern US economy rebounds after the very difficult winter.

The USD.CAD Currency pair has been trading in the 1.1000 to 1.1050 trading range all week so it has been very quiet for the Loonie but I do think today will see it break out of that range. For the Canadian Employment report we are expecting an increase of 25k jobs to have been created in March, this will be a big jump from the 7K jobs we lost in February, the unemployment rate should stay at 7.0%. We should at some point start to see the weak Canadian Dollar have a positive effect on employment in Canada as the export sector continues to grow, over the next few months this should start to ripple down into the broader economy.

If the Canadian number comes in near expectation the Canadian currency market will focus on the US number, a strong US number and USD.CAD will jump above 1.1050 moving towards 1.1100 and a weak number will break the 1.1000 barrier that has been holding in all week. If you have not already done so make sure that you have your orders in early as possible, either way we expect it will be a volatile morning.

Have a great weekend

Mike

GFX Morning Currency Rates
Currencies	7:00am Today's Opening				Yesterday's Opening
USD/CAD		1.1024			1.101
CAD/USD		0.9071			0.9082
EUR/USD		1.3708			1.3765
EUR/CAD		1.5115			1.5159
STG/CAD		1.8272			1.8272
AUD/CAD		1.0193			1.0172
CAD/JPY		94.22			94.35
CAD/CHF		0.8094			0.805
CAD/HKD		7.0149			7.0231
CAD/CNY		5.6322			5.6395
CAD/MXN		11.9068			11.9133
Commodities
Gold		$1,291.00			$1,287.00
OIL		$101.07			$99.20
US DOLLAR INDEX
P.CLOSE		80.46			80.09
OPEN		80.5			80.27
US 10YR YIELD		2.79%			2.79%