GFX FX Morning Commentary, May 4th, 2012

Good Morning,

Today's expected range for the Canadian Dollar against the US Dollar is .9840-.9940

Today's expected range for the Canadian Dollar against the Euro is 1.2950-1.3050

Today's expected range for the Canadian Dollar against Sterling is 1.5950-1.6050

The US Dollar is again marginally higher in quiet trading markets this morning as poor manufacturing and services data have highlighted investor fear that a slowdown in the European economy will further hurt the debt crisis.

This Sunday is the last round of the French election and while current President Sarkozy has pulled back in the polls he still trails opposition Socialist rival Francois Hollande. Sunday also sees an election in dare I say it, Greece, where it looks like any new government will be a minority Government and will need to negotiate with the crazy fringe parties to survive. I have mentioned this before but if current European Governments start to fall then expect great uncertainty in financial markets and a much weaker Euro.

The Canadian Dollar grudgingly is giving back its strength to the US Dollar in overnight markets, once again last night USD.CAD had a very narrow trading and while making gains against the Euro and Sterling it slowly looks to be losing some steam against the Greenback.

Today's trading will of course be dominated by the US jobs report due out at 08:30 where we are expecting an increase of 165K (last 120K) new jobs in April. If the report exceeds expectation then look for equity markets to jump higher and USD.CAD will trade lower back towards .9850, if however it is weaker than expectation (and US numbers have been tepid as of late) then look for equity markets to trade much weaker and USD.CAD should quickly jump above .9900 and move higher. 

Have a great weekend

Mike

GFX Morning Currency Rates
Friday, May 04 2012
Currencies	7:00am Today's Opening				Yesterday's Opening
USD/CAD		0.9878			0.9831
CAD/USD		1.0124			1.0172
EUR/USD		1.3129			1.3135
EUR/CAD		1.297			1.2916
STG/CAD		1.5987			1.591
AUD/CAD		1.0127			1.0121
CAD/JPY		81.17			81.62
CAD/CHF		0.926			0.9289
CAD/HKD		7.8557			7.7588
CAD/CNY		6.3804			6.41
CAD/MXN		13.1416			13.1733
Commodities
Gold		$101			$1,645
OIL		$1,633.00			$104.89
Option Volatility
Canada
O/N		8.43%			11.97%
1 Week		8.89%			8.66%
1 Month		8.43%			8.55%

Today's Economic Calendar

US Releases
Employment Report for April (08:30 am)- expectation for 165,000 new jobs to have been created

Canada
Ivey Purchasing Managers report (10:00 am)