GFX Mornign FX Commentary march 8th, 2013

Good Morning,

Today’s expected range for the Canadian Dollar against the US Dollar is 1.0260-1.0360

Today’s expected range for the Canadian Dollar against the Euro is 1.3470-1.3570

Today’s expected range for the Canadian Dollar against Sterling is 1.5460-1.5560

The US Dollar is mixed this morning as the markets await the US employment report which will dominate trading. The US Dollar is much stronger against the Yen (over 1%) and a little weaker against the Euro and Sterling. This morning we are expecting 160k new jobs to have been created in the US last month with the unemployment rate to remain unchanged at 7.9%. Given that the correlation between the equity markets and the US dollar seems to be waning the past few months, a strong report should be positive both for stocks and the US Dollar.

The Canadian Dollar had a very quiet evening  and traded a little weaker but still remains in tight ranges. The Canadian market will be affected today by the US jobs report but more so by the Canadian report due out at the same time. We are expecting for Canada 7.5K jobs to have been created last month (last 21.9K jobs lost) and an increase in the unemployment rate to 7.1%. I think the reaction to the Loonie will be quite simple, a strong report will push USD.CAD lower towards 1.0250 and a weak report (more job losses) will push the rate towards 1.0350 and I think then will setup for a move to 1.0400. Either way I think we will see some enhanced volatility and you should be ready with your orders.

I will be out of the office this afternoon as today is the big fund raiser for the Ireland Fund of Canada where we have the largest St Patrick’s day luncheon in the world with close to 1500 people partaking of some Irish hospitality over at the Metro Toronto Convention Centre. Head to the Ireland Fund of Canada website today and next week and you will see some great pictures of the event. If anyone on the email list of Irish ancestry would like to support the work of the Ireland Fund you can become a member directly from the web site.

Have a great weekend
Mike

GFX Morning Currency Rates
Currencies	7:00am Today's Opening				Yesterday's Opening
USD/CAD		1.0302			1.0305
CAD/USD		0.9707			0.9704
EUR/USD		1.3118			1.3013
EUR/CAD		1.3516			1.3414
STG/CAD		1.5494			1.5457
AUD/CAD		1.0583			1.058
CAD/JPY		92.94			91.35
CAD/CHF		0.9148			0.9186
CAD/HKD		7.5069			7.5045
CAD/CNY		6.0323			6.033
CAD/MXN		12.3582			12.409
Commodities
Gold		$1,577			$1,581
OIL		$91.32			$90.70
Option Volatility
Canada
O/N		8.46%			11.53%
1 Week		7.66%			7.81%
1 Month		6.70%			6.96%