GFX Morning Commentary March 26th, 2013

Good Morning,

Today’s expected range for the Canadian Dollar against the US Dollar is 1.0175-1.0250

Today’s expected range for the Canadian Dollar against the Euro is 1.3100-1.3175

Today’s expected range for the Canadian Dollar against Sterling is 1.5440-1.5520

The US Dollar is marginally weaker this morning as the currency markets take a breather after the Cyprus bail-out was announced on the weekend. The Euro has pulled back a little higher off it low’s yesterday but it is still relatively weak compared to where it was before the bailout was announced, yesterday saw lots of confusion surrounding the bail-out, the Dutch Finance minister said that this bail-out will be the template for all future bank bail-outs (depositors paying for part of it) and this morning an ECB executive said the ECB will do everything it can to preserve the common currency and stated this is not a model for the rest of Europe, once again Europe’s lack of leadership in a crisis shines through and this mess will continue for the foreseeable future. If you are looking for a growth industry in Europe I think home security companies and home safe builders will be a good investment, just think how many people in Spain and Italy are going to be pulling cash out of their accounts and keeping it at home to avoid losing it. It will be interesting to see if there is a rise in break-ins and home invasions throughout Europe in the coming months.

The Canadian Dollar is a little stronger against the Greenback but still nothing to get excited about, USD.CAD continues to trade in tight ranges and is being ignored by the world’s currency markets. The Loonie however has really jumped against the Euro as EURO.CAD looks set to break below 1.3100 in the coming days. Up today we do get some secondary US data and it should continue to confirm the recovery in the US, unless we get some very different numbers than expectation I doubt they will bring any volatility to the Loonie market today. Given recent trading ranges I still think these levels represent good opportunity for US Dollar buyers and they should be looking at forward contracts going out a few months on any moves below 1.0200.

Have a great day

Mike

GFX Morning Currency Rates
Currencies	7:00am Today's Opening				Yesterday's Opening
USD/CAD		1.0201			1.019
CAD/USD		0.9803			0.9813
EUR/USD		1.287			1.3001
EUR/CAD		1.3133			1.3248
STG/CAD		1.5488			1.5497
AUD/CAD		1.0686			1.069
CAD/JPY		92.39			92.96
CAD/CHF		0.9293			0.9225
CAD/HKD		7.585			7.596
CAD/CNY		6.087			6.0931
CAD/MXN		12.0937			12.1056
Commodities
Gold		$1,598			$1,601
OIL		$95.30			$94.22
US DOLLAR INDEX
P.CLOSE		83.06			82.53
OPEN		82.98			82.48