GFX Morning Commentary March 13th, 2013

Good Morning,

Today’s expected range for the Canadian Dollar against the US Dollar is 1.0230-1.0320

Today’s expected range for the Canadian Dollar against the Euro is 1.3330-1.3400

Today’s expected range for the Canadian Dollar against Sterling is 1.5340-1.5400

The US Dollar is mixed this morning in overall quiet currency markets as it is stronger against the Euro but weaker against Sterling and Yen. In Europe equity markets and the Euro are lower on an Industrial Output report that fell more than economists had forecast, a further sign that the recession in Europe is continuing into the first quarter of 2013.

Nothing new to report on the Canadian Dollar this morning, both overnight and intra-day trading on USD.CAD continues to trade within tight ranges, support seems to be building at 1.0250 and resistance at 1.0275, hopefully we will break out of this range today as we are expecting the release of the US retail Sales report for February. Most economists (and we know how accurate they have been lately) are expecting an increase of 0.5% which would be the fourth straight month of increases for US Retail Sales, another clear sign that the US recovery is firmly taking hold.

If we see a strong report then I would expect USD.CAD to move towards the top end of our recent range and possibly test the 1.0300 level, if the number is poorer than expectation then we could see USD.CAD break below 1.0250 and test lower. Either way we should see some enhanced volatility after the report so make sure you have your orders in.

Have a great day

Mike

GFX Morning Currency Rates
Currencies	7:00am Today's Opening				Yesterday's Opening
USD/CAD		1.0272			1.0277
CAD/USD		0.9735			0.973
EUR/USD		1.3004			1.3012
EUR/CAD		1.3362			1.3375
STG/CAD		1.536			1.5277
AUD/CAD		1.0585			1.0578
CAD/JPY		93.96			93.26
CAD/CHF		0.922			0.9219
CAD/HKD		7.5509			7.5459
CAD/CNY		6.0503			6.0486
CAD/MXN		12.103
Commodities
Gold		$1,595.80			$1,584.10
OIL		$92.87			$91.89
Option Volatility
Canada
O/N		8.56%			9.07%
1 Week		6.07%			6.44%
1 Month		6.25%			6.40%