GFX Morning Commentary

Good Morning,

Today’s expected range for the Canadian Dollar against the US Dollar is 1.1000-1.1130
 

Today’s expected range for  the Canadian Dollar against the Euro is 1.5010-1.5100

Today’s expected range for the Canadian Dollar against Sterling is 1.8060-1.8160

The US Dollar is marginally stronger this morning as the currency markets get set up for today’s important US jobs report. This number is perhaps the biggest signpost as to the extent of the US recovery, if it is a strong number then investors view the US economy is on track for a strong recovery, if it is a poor number then all kinds of uncertainty will arise and should hurt US stocks.

A little disconcerting news out of Germany this morning,  Germany’s top constitutional court has asked the European Court of Justice to rule if the bail-out for bankrupt European countries is legal. I am not sure where this goes from here or if it has any legs but if a ruling from the courts states that the bail-out program was illegal world financial markets would be thrown into turmoil, it may make 2008 look like a walk in the park. Definitely something to follow in the news.

The Canadian Dollar had  a quiet night, yesterday saw It have an active day as the poor trade data out of Canada saw it weaken once again but it was still not able to break out of recent ranges.

Today’s trading will of course be dominated by the employment reports out of the US and Canada. In the US we are expecting 175K news jobs to have been created but that may be higher due to the encouraging jobless claims number yesterday. In Canada we are expecting 15k to 20K new jobs which helps recover some of the 45k jobs last month. If we show another negative number then USD.CAD will easily be back at 1.1200, if we show stronger than expected job growth then the recent attempts at recovery for the Loonie should push USD.CAD towards 1.1000. If we get a large movement one way or the other I will send out a currency alert to let you know.

Have a great week-end

Mike

GFX Morning Currency Rates
Currencies	7:00am Today's Opening				Yesterday's Opening
USD/CAD		1.1066			1.1064
CAD/USD		0.9037			0.9038
EUR/USD		1.3566			1.3516
EUR/CAD		1.5066			1.4957
STG/CAD		1.808			1.8014
AUD/CAD		0.9897			0.9915
CAD/JPY		92.25			91.69
CAD/CHF		0.8146			0.8169
CAD/HKD		6.9887			6.9909
CAD/CNY		5.4793			5.48
CAD/MXN		12.024			11.9824
Commodities
Gold		$1,261.00			$1,262.00
OIL		$97.43			$98.41
US DOLLAR INDEX
P.CLOSE		80.89			81.03
OPEN		80.97			81.11
US 10YR YIELD		2.70%			2.67%