GFX Morning FX Commentary

Good Morning,

Today’s expected range for the Canadian Dollar against the US Dollar is 1.0870-1.0930

Today’s expected range for the Canadian Dollar against the Euro is 1.4360-1.4410

Today’s expected range for the Canadian Dollar against Sterling is 1.8060-1.8120

The US Dollar is weaker this morning with the Canadian Dollar the most active currency overnight(it is not often that I would say that to start a commentary). EURO.USD jumped a little higher overnight as reported profit taking on short Euro positions pushed the Euro higher. The Euro was also helped higher by stronger than expected Employment and Retails Sales reports.

The Canadian Dollar was the star of the show last night as the Loonie strengthened the most against any of the major currencies. On the face of it there was no visible reason for this move, the Loonie had been trading in tight ranges and with light volume. Since nothing changed on the economic or geo-political fronts I can only assume that someone came to the market with a large buy order for Canadian Dollars and caught the market by surprise. Given that Burger King just announced its purchase of Tim Horton’s yesterday I find it a strong  coincidence on the timing. Only the bank that executed the order will know for sure but this move could easily be explained by Burger King coming to the market and buying a few billion Canadian Dollars to complete the purchase of Tim Horton’s.

The strength of the Loonie against the US Dollar has also translated to strength against both Sterling and Euro so there are good opportunities for buyers of those currencies.

If this move is an outlier and not the start of a trend US Dollar buyers need to take advantage of it and react this morning, if it is not a trend and the order is completed the USD.CAD should pull back a little, make sure you do not miss this opportunity.

Nothing on the economic calendar today so I am not looking for a huge move today, as I said if the order is finished we should see USD.CAD pull back a little, further gains for the Loonie should be limited.

Have a great day

Mike

GFX Morning Currency Rates
Currencies	7:00am Today's Opening				Yesterday's Opening
USD/CAD		1.0897			1.0962
CAD/USD					0.9122
EUR/USD		1.318			1.3202
EUR/CAD		1.4365			1.4474
STG/CAD		1.8062			1.8169
AUD/CAD		101.82			1.0213
CAD/JPY		95.33			94.71
CAD/CHF		0.8406			0.8345
CAD/HKD		7.0905			7.0475
CAD/CNY		5.637			5.6121
CAD/MXN		11.9867			11.9608
Commodities
Gold		$1,286.90			$1,288.70
OIL		$94.11			$93.56
US DOLLAR INDEX
P.CLOSE		82.69			82.6
OPEN		82.58			82.56
US 10YR YIELD		2.37%			2.37%