GFX Morning Commentary

Good Morning,

Today’s expected range for the Canadian Dollar against the US Dollar is 1.2475-1.2550

Today’s expected range for the Canadian Dollar against the Euro is 1.4260-1.4330

Today’s expected range for the Canadian Dollar against Sterling is 1.9270-1.9340

The US Dollar is marginally weaker this morning as the recent bout of soft economic data continues to creep into the US economic picture, yesterday it was a slightly worse than expected retail sales report. The Euro seems to have gained a little bit of momentum  as the Ukraine ceasefire is in place and there is an expectation now that Greece will be given a bridge loan before the end of the month, it won’t solve the problem but will buy Europe some more time to see if they can find a solution.

The Canadian Dollar is slightly weaker this morning, every time the rates dips below 1.2500 the US Dollar rallies and the rate moves higher, to get any sustained Canadian Dollar strength we will need to see a significant break of 1.2450. This is where short-term US Dollar buyers need to leave their orders if they want to try and get some extra value.

Oil continues to grind higher as it moved to $51.88 a barrel, given the recent volatility there is no evidence that oil is on a sustained recovery and it could just a easily drop back below $50.

I just noticed on the news wire that a case of Mad Cow disease has been found in Alberta, I would not want to think what a beef export ban would do to Alberta now that the oil industry has hit the skids. I have no idea if this is a serious situation or not but it  may be something to watch as it could affect the overall Canadian Dollar if we are to have a hit to our beef industry.

Only economic data today is the Canadian manufacturing shipments report so overall we should have a light trading day. Just a reminder that our office will be closed on Monday but the currency will still be trading on international markets, make sure you get your orders in early so you can take advantage of any volatility.

Have a great long weekend

Mike

GFX Morning Currency Rates
Currencies	7:00am Today's Opening				Yesterday's Opening			4pm close Thursday
USD/CAD		1.2515			1.2557			1.2493
CAD/USD		0.799			0.7963			0.8004
EUR/USD		1.1415			1.134			1.1405
EUR/CAD		1.4291			1.424			1.4251
STG/CAD		1.9259			1.9254			1.924
AUD/CAD		0.9693			0.9644			0.9673
CAD/JPY		94.95			95.35			95.12
CAD/CHF		0.7417			0.7412			0.7442
CAD/HKD		6.1714			6.1531			6.1772
CAD/CNY		4.9844			4.9725			4.9956
CAD/MXN		11.9452			12.0075			11.9651
Commodities
Gold		$1,223			$1,223			$1,222
OIL		$51.88			$50.14			$51.25
US DOLLAR INDEX
OPEN		94.14			94.79			94.14
US 10YR YIELD		2.00%			2.04%			1.99%