GFX Morning FX Commentary

Good Morning,

Today’s expected range for the Canadian Dollar against the US Dollar is 1.2440-1.2520

Today’s expected range for the Canadian Dollar against the Euro is 1.4000-1.4070

Today’s expected range for the Canadian Dollar against Sterling is 1.9270-1.9340

The US Dollar is Dollar is marginally weaker this morning as the currency markets await the US GDP report for the 4^th Quarter of last year. The US CPI and Jobless claims report disappointed the market yesterday, I think the market will now be looking at this GDP report with the expectation that it too might disappoint the market, if it does we might see the Dollar get hit as it may push out the Federal Reserve’s plan to increase interest rates.

The Euro is slightly higher this morning as some positive data out of France helped push the Euro higher, I would still say the sentiment is for a weaker Euro over the short-term as the Greek situation is still to unfold in the coming months.

The Canadian Dollar is a little bit stronger this morning but continues to trade in and around the 1.2500 level, the Loonie did pick up some gains yesterday both against the Euro and Sterling as it was able to benefit from weakness in both of those currencies. Sterling buyers may want to look at these levels as good buying opportunities, I would still think the overall strength in Sterling and the weakness in the Canada will push the rate to 2.0000 at some point in the next few  months.

In addition to the US GDP report ( we are expecting an increase of 2.1%, last 2.6% y-o-y) we are expecting some secondary US data including Consumer Confidence and the Chicago PMI. It will be the GDP report that traders will be focused on and if we get a surprise we could be in for a very busy morning.

I was reading this morning that the temperature might reach 0 degrees next week, It has been so long since we have been that warm I might just have the pool opened at the Smith household.

Have a great weekend.

Mike

GFX Morning Currency Rates
Currencies	7:00am Today's Opening				Yesterday's Opening			4pm Thursday close
USD/CAD		1.2474			1.2443			1.2523
CAD/USD		0.8016			0.8036			0.7985
EUR/USD		1.1223			1.1352			1.1194
EUR/CAD		1.4004			1.4128			1.4018
STG/CAD		1.9244			1.9311			1.9295
AUD/CAD		0.9765			0.9829			0.9759
CAD/JPY		95.59			95.34			95.36
CAD/CHF		0.7609			0.7601			0.7608
CAD/HKD		6.1932			6.2057			6.1703
CAD/CNY		5.0235			5.025			4.995
CAD/MXN		12.06						12.0046
Commodities
Gold		$1,207			$1,216			$1,208
OIL		$48.97			$50.35			$48.95
US DOLLAR INDEX
OPEN		95.1			94.26			95.35
US 10YR YIELD		2.04%			1.94%			2.03%