GFX Morning FX Commentary

Good Morning,

Today’s expected range for the Canadian Dollar against the US Dollar is 1.2400-1.2500

Today’s expected range for the Canadian Dollar against the Euro is 1.4250-1.4350

Today’s expected range for the Canadian Dollar against Sterling is 1.9100-1.9200

The US Dollar is unchanged for the most part this morning as the global currency markets get ready for the US Employment report for January this morning. In Europe the EURO fell a little  as the German Finance Minister said Greece’s financial problems were a result of “domestic problems” but Germany would do everything they could to help Greece get through this mess. Basically if I was a Greek citizen I would not take too much comfort in those words.

The market will focus today on the US Jobs report where we are expecting 230k new jobs to have been created in January and an unemployment rate of 5.6% (unchanged). As I mention yesterday the recent US economic data has tended to disappoint the markets, yesterday saw the US trade deficit for December widen to $46.56 billion, a clear sign that the strong US Dollar is having a negative effect on the US export market. If this jobs report disappoints the market then it may be just the excuse that that currency traders need to start selling off the Greenback.

Up today we also get the Canadian Employment report, we are expecting 5,000 jobs to have been created and the  unemployment rate to remain at 6.7%. I am not quite sure how we can trust Stats Canada anymore as just last month they announced that there revising the 2014  jobs number down by 50,000 job, this is the 2^nd major revision of employment data in the last 6 months from the crown corporation. I will be interested to see how the job market unfolded last month, with the energy sector shedding jobs but the weak Canadian Dollar helping to create export related jobs, we could start to see a slightly better than expected employment picture starting with number in the January number. Again a poor Canadian number will start USD.CAD back higher, whatever happens we should have a very volatile day.

Have a great weekend.

Mike

GFX Morning Currency Rates
Currencies	7:00am Today's Opening				Yesterday's Opening			4pm Thursday close
USD/CAD	1.2443				1.2538				1.2436
CAD/USD	0.8036				0.7976				0.8041
EUR/USD	1.1442				1.1428				1.1483
EUR/CAD	1.4241				1.4322				1.4277
STG/CAD	1.9084				1.9092				1.9067
AUD/CAD	0.9758				0.9789				0.9704
CAD/JPY	94.24				93.59				94.5000
CAD/CHF	0.7406				0.7398				0.7406
CAD/HKD	6.2061				6.1698				6.2124
CAD/CNY	5.0165				4.9864				5.0280
CAD/MXN	11.8899				11.8217				11.9150
Commodities
Gold	$1,267.00				$1,258.00				$1,262.00
OIL	$52.18				$48.90				$50.67
US DOLLAR INDEX
OPEN	93.70				93.95				93.51
US 10YR YIELD	1.81%				1.78%				1.81%