GFX Morning Commentary

Good Morning,

Today’s expected range for the Canadian Dollar against the US Dollar is 1.1040-1.1100

Today’s expected range for the Canadian Dollar against the Euro is 1.5420-1.5490

Today’s expected range for the Canadian Dollar against Sterling is 1.8440-1.8510

The US Dollar is weaker this morning as both the Euro and Sterling have jumped higher and this is in spite of poorer than expected data out of China. The Euro continues to build momentum on the belief by investors that the ECB will continue to support the Euro-Zone economy, the Euro reached a two-year high against the US Dollar overnight trading at a high of 1.3965.

In China, retails sales grew at a weaker than expected rate of 11.8% and Industrial Production only grew by 8.6% which was less than expected and is the slowest rate of growth since 2004. The recent run of poorer than expected data out of China call into question the growth rates of the overall economy, which has a carry on effect on the price of commodities which affect the economies of many countries including Canada.

The other big currency mover overnight was the New Zealand Dollar where the Central Bank raised interest rates, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand is the first western country to increase interest rates in many years, as you would expect the New Zealand Dollar jumped on the news even though it was expected.

With the weak US Dollar overnight the Canadian Dollar has been able to extend some gains against the US Dollar but with the strength in the Euro and Sterling the Loonie is unchanged against those currencies and still looks like it wants to trade weaker. USD.CAD continues to trade in narrow ranges and I think we would need to see a good break of 1.1000 to clearly say that the Loonie is on the rebound.

We should have an active morning as we get the release of the US Retail Sales report for February, we are expecting an increase of 0.2% after a drop off 0.4% so a strong number should give the US Dollar a bit of a boost.

Have a great day

Mike

GFX Morning Currency Rates
Currencies	7:00am Today's Opening				Yesterday's Opening
USD/CAD		1.1069			1.1117
CAD/USD		0.9034			0.8995
EUR/USD		1.395			1.3862
EUR/CAD		1.5445			1.545
STG/CAD		1.848			1.844
AUD/CAD		100.26			0.9939
CAD/JPY		92.66			92.35
CAD/CHF		0.7863			0.7884
CAD/HKD		6.9928			6.9628
CAD/CNY		5.5435			5.5261
CAD/MXN		11.9354			11.9615
Commodities
Gold		$1,371.40			$1,356.00
OIL		$98.14			$98.76
US DOLLAR INDEX
P.CLOSE		79.7			79.88
OPEN		79.44			79.88
US 10YR YIELD		2.74%			2.74%