GFX Morning FX commentary

Good Morning,

Today’s expected range for the Canadian Dollar against the US Dollar is 1.1080-1.1140

Today’s expected range for the Canadian Dollar against the Euro is 1.5370-1.5450

Today’s expected range for the Canadian Dollar against Sterling is 1.8465-1.8530

The US Dollar is marginally stronger as it continues to benefit from a slightly better than expected US unemployment report on Friday. The Dollar is also benefitting from some safe-haven flows as Chinese exports fell dramatically last month, the most in 4 years. The Chinese stock markets are down 3% this morning which is the largest one day drop since June of last year and overall Chinese stocks have hit a 5-year low, I am bit surprised that North American stocks are not showing down more than they are at this point as a result of this report, they seem to be discounting this report.

The Canadian Dollar continues to trade weaker as it gets hurt from the poor Canadian Employment report on Friday, USD.CAD traded higher overnight as did both EURO.CAD and GBP.CAD. In looking at the employment report I don’t think it was as bad as first publicized as the full-time report actually showed an increase in employment, most of the job losses were in part-time. I think this factor may limit just how much the Loonie will weaken today.

Our only economic event today is Canadian Housing starts so I am not looking for a volatile start to the week, overall I still favour a drop in the Canadian Dollar with USD.CAD moving higher but I think we will have a period of consolidation where we trade near the 1.1100 level.

Have a great week

Mike

GFX Morning Currency Rates
Currencies	7:00am Today's Opening				Yesterday's Opening
USD/CAD		1.1108			1.0995
CAD/USD					0.9095
EUR/USD		1.3874			1.3902
EUR/CAD		1.5411			1.5288
STG/CAD		1.8500			1.8435
AUD/CAD		1.0043			1.0035
CAD/JPY		92.97			93.59
CAD/CHF		0.7904			0.7968
CAD/HKD		6.9661			11.9707
CAD/CNY		5.5261			5.5709
CAD/MXN		11.8713			11.9707
Commodities
Gold		$1,334.80			$1,349.00
OIL		$101.30			$101.96
US DOLLAR INDEX
P.CLOSE					79.67
OPEN		79.92			79.46
US 10YR YIELD		2.79%			2.73%