GFX Morning Commentary

Good Morning,

Today’s expected range for the Canadian Dollar against the US Dollar is 1.1050-1.1120

Today’s expected range for the Canadian Dollar against the Euro is 1.5370-1.5460

Today’s expected range for the Canadian Dollar against Sterling is 1.8380-1.8470

The US Dollar is marginally weaker this morning as the world markets continue to express concern over the future growth rates in China and the situation in Ukraine. This weekend of course is the referendum in Crimea which I think we all know the outcome of, there is a meeting today with US Secretary of State Kerry and the Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Larvov to discuss the situation where I doubt any progress will be made. After the referendum Sunday it looks like Russia will annex Crimea and then the question is will they stop there or keep going? (I wonder if a similar question was asked in 1938 when Germany annexed Austria) North American equity markets were smashed yesterday and the sell-off continued into Europe and Asia this morning so clearly global investors are very nervous.

The Yen was the biggest mover overnight as inflows to japan were able to push the yen stronger, Japan is one of those currencies that tends to benefit it times of uncertainty as money that was invested overseas tends to flow home quickly in times of uncertainty. The Euro and Sterling continue to trade within their recent ranges as we await the outcome of the referendum, if the situation gets much worse I would expect the Euro to get worse.

The Canadian Dollar is marginally weaker this morning against the US Dollar but it trades in a very narrow range overnight, USD.CAD looks like it will continue to be mired in tight ranges for some time yet. Of concern to me is a big flight to safety because of the Crimea situation, If that happens USD.CAD could jump to 1.1200 very quickly.

Up today we get some secondary US data including Consumer Sentiment but for the most part USD.CAD should trade in a narrow range ahead of the weekend vote, markets could be very volatile Sunday night so make sure you have your orders in to take advantage of any movement.

Have a great weekend

Mike

GFX Morning Currency Rates
Currencies	7:00am Today's Opening				Yesterday's Opening
USD/CAD		1.1075			1.1069
CAD/USD		0.9029			0.9034
EUR/USD		1.3889			1.395
EUR/CAD		1.5383			1.5445
STG/CAD		1.8402			1.848
AUD/CAD		1.0014			1.0026
CAD/JPY		91.67			92.66
CAD/CHF		0.7891			0.7863
CAD/HKD		6.9897			6.9928
CAD/CNY		5.5526			5.5435
CAD/MXN		11.9691			11.9354
Commodities
Gold		$1,370.30			$1,371.40
OIL		$98.28			$98.14
US DOLLAR INDEX
P.CLOSE		79.72			79.7
OPEN		79.65			79.44
US 10YR YIELD		2.65%			2.74%