Monday 30 January 2012

FX Morning Commentary January 30th, 2012

Good Morning,

Today's expected range for the Canadian Dollar against the US Dollar is .9980-1.0100

Today's expected range for the Canadian Dollar against the Euro is 1.3160-1.3300

Today's expected range for the Canadian Dollar against Sterling is 1.5750-1.5875

The US Dollar is stronger to start the new trading week as Asian equity markets are all lower as they return from the extended new year holiday, the Euro's recent momentum seems to be stalling out as EURO.USD has fallen from it high above 1.3235 to trade near 1.3100 this morning. Markets appear to be reacting to the slightly weaker than expected US growth numbers from Friday and the further downgrade by bond rating agency Fitch of 6 European countries late Friday afternoon.

It looks like the Euro will remain under pressure today as Italy did not get all the funds they were looking for in today's bond auction and markets will await any announcements from the EU leader summit that is to begin tomorrow, markets will be looking for resolution of the Greek private debt deal, announcement on the next required action for Portugal who is facing rising interest levels and may need another bail-out and finally how much more money the EU will put into the rescue fund, it should be an interesting few days in the currency markets if they don't like what they hear. It seems to me that the EU just jumps form one summit to the next and never really solves the problem, one of these days hopefully they will get it sorted.

The Canadian dollar is marginally weaker as it has moved away from the parity level and given the developments in Europe it looks like it will remain on the sidelines for a while yet, the Loonie did pick up some small gains against the Euro and Sterling as the Canadian Dollar benefitted from weakness in those currency. I would not be surprised if USD.CAD just settled in and trades near parity for a while now.

It will be a busy week on the data front as there are lots of European economic releases due out, Canadian GDP tomorrow and they are all followed up by the US and Canadian jobs report on Friday, so hopefully we will see some volatility as the week goes on.

Have a great week
Mike


Currencies
7:00am Today's Opening
Yesterday's Opening
USD/CAD
1.0038
0.9998
CAD/USD
0.9962
1.0002
EUR/USD
1.3124
1.314
EUR/CAD
1.3177
1.3141
STG/CAD
1.5757
1.5707
AUD/CAD
1.06
1.0656
CAD/JAP
76.31
76.97
CAD/CHF
0.9142
0.9189
CAD/HKD
7.7263
7.7568
CAD/CNY
6.3039
6.3311
Commodities
Gold
$1,721
$1,722
OIL
$99.23
$100.10
Option Volatility
O/N
13.32%
8.61%
1 Week
10.35%
10.57%
1 Month
9.92%
9.68%

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GFX is today a leading Canadian provider of foreign exchange services and global payment solutions, we service a wide range of North American clients that conduct business in foreign countries and help them manage their FX exposure. Clients choose GFX for our specialized knowledge and dedication to providing the best possible coverage against the negative effects of fluctuations in the foreign currency markets

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